Issue #311: Receipts

By Derrick Ernst

October 25, 2026

Winners

Is it just me or is this season racing by? A look back on our Draft Guide is warranted and I figure if I don’t do it now, it may never happen. I’ve gathered over the years that nobody learns anything, including myself, from just touching on the things that went right. In fact, highlighting the other side of the spectrum, the things that went wrong, is a better use of space to hash out. Before getting to that, let’s chest puff a bit. All stats discussed are through week six.

Rather than go one by one for those in our guide and deem if things are going well for them or not, I’m going to look at performance in groups to tell the story. What follows are the number of players from our guide that fit the bucket being defined. If that’s still a little murky to you, it won’t be in just a few.

Quarterback

• Ranked QB12 or better: 7

• Ranked between QB13-24: 4

• Ranked outside the top-24: 1

• Identified QB1: Yes (J. Allen)

11 out of 12 in the top-24. Not too shabby. The only guy who isn’t? J. Dart. Not too shabby x2. There’s a lot of unconventional love for some of those seven in the top-12: B. Purdy, T. Lawrence, D. Prescott. People have been hurt by these guys in the past and refuse to draft them because of it. Fantasy managers need to have short memories and those who don’t shrink their chances of finding positional success, unless their plan is to draft J. Allen in perpetuity. I’m becoming one of them.

Running Back

• Ranked RB12 or better: 9

• Ranked between RB13-24: 3

• Ranked outside the top-24: 20

• Identified RB1: Yes (J. Gibbs)

The three RB’s in the top-12 that weren’t in our guide: K. Williams, C. Hubbard, and J. Warren. All three of their backups were: B. Corum, J. Brooks, and R. Dowdle. Go figure. Identified the setup, failed in the execution. “Failed” might be strong because Corum is currently RB23, but given the other two weighing down their average, I wouldn’t blame you if you thought it sufficed.

Obviously having 20 of the 32 (62%) RBs in our guide be outside the top-24 is horrendous. A lot can be chalked up to injuries and guys missing time and maybe I’d expect that bucket’s share to be high-ish as the season came to a close, but this early? I’d expect a few of these guys will creep into the RB13-24 range by way of attrition to those who have simply been running hot. That also means guys like C. Brown, S. Barkley, B, Hall, T. Etienne will need to go on a run themselves to make that a reality.

Wide Receiver

• Ranked WR12 or better: 7

• Ranked between WR13-24: 3

• Ranked outside the top-24: 14

• Identified WR1: Yes (JSN)

Almost a mirror to RBs, but with a smaller sample size. While we didn’t have G. Wilson in our guide, depending on your platform, three of these four sit in the top-12 and the other was recently traded:

Source: X (@BetMGM)

I’m more disappointed about the 14 outside the top-24 than being excited about the 10 within it. Some of the guys on the outside looking in include J. Jefferson, J. Waddle, M. Wilson, J. Williams. Big names that required serious draft capital.

Speaking of someone who requires commitment, Puka is WR16 only having played in four games. M. Evans, the ageless wonder, is WR12, but missing Sunday’s game (10/25) will hurt that a bit. Chase (WR18) and Higgins (WR22) are almost at parity which is something we’ve been hoping for for years. There’s probably a lot that needs to happen for that to come to fruition, but I’ll admit I’m pleased by it six games in.

Tight End

• Ranked TE12 or better: 6

• Ranked between TE13-24: 1

• Ranked outside the top-24: 2

• Identified RB1: No (I. Likely)

This rounds out me correctly identifying at least 50% of the top-12 point getters thus far in each position. I’m not ashamed in saying this, I’m proud of that. Not every top-12 has been chalk either. I stuck my neck out for quite a few of these guys (QBs being a great example) and they’ve been paying off. That hasn’t always worked in my favor.

I think I’ve said this before, but TEs are the easiest position to predict out for fantasy. Only about half the TEs in the league are impactful enough for fantasy anyway. Only about half of those are on teams that use them to their fullest. We have a pretty good hit rate then when you think about it that way, but then again, maybe I’m just saying this to make myself feel better.

I highlighted I. Likely back on July 30 in saying this:

“I would like to take a victory [lap] and say that I was one of the first to predict the hype NYG would have around itself this season. I want Likely to have his breakout season, I just won’t be playing along. Having too much exposure to one thing is a recipe for disaster and the way things are going, there will be fantasy managers with rosters filled with Giants."

Dart, Skattebo, and Nabers all made the guide but the one guy leading their position was left off for risk of having “too much exposure.” Come on! This is a classic example of trying to make things overly complicated. My attempt at cheating the system is proving to be a reason why I (and you) shouldn’t. Noted.

Losers

By “losers” I really mean “swing and misses.” AKA those who have been performing well beyond my expectations thus far. Let’s go through a few.

Quarterback

• Drake Maye, QB2

• Bryce Young, QB8

• Jordon Love, QB10

I feel like we’re right in the thick of a regime change — young QB’s are taking over. I’m not ready for it. Too bad the game doesn’t care what I/you think! It’s going to change and you better evolve with it or get left behind.

Running Back

• Bhayshul Tuten, RB13

• Ashton Jeanty, RB14

Lawrence has seemed to turn a corner and as a result JAX’s RBs have as well. Etienne finished as RB9 last season and Tuten is trending in the same direction. On the other hand, Jeanty currently sits 8th in the league in opportunity share, seeing 36% of all offensive plays ran by LV go his way. His snap share has dropped these past few weeks. If that reverts back to where he was at the beginning of the year, he’ll be making his way up the leaderboard.

Wide Receiver

• Christian Watson (WR2) & Matthew Golden (WR6)

• Parker Washington, WR8

I sent this text to a friend of mine earlier in the week who is a big GB fan:

“I have a thought. You know how it’s become a thing in MLB where teams are just telling their players to swing for the fences and don’t mind striking out. That’s how I’ve felt about J. Love this season. He seems to be airing it out every chance he gets and if it gets picked (or better yet his WR’s drop the ball), so be it. There seems to be code-cracking happening in GB and it’s working.”

Raise your hand if you agree. As a result, you have two top-6 WRs in fantasy. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend?

Tight End

• Sam LaPorta, TE5

LaPorta was fantasy’s TE1 in 2023 having averaged 11.3 pts/gm. Through five games this year he averaging 12.6. What’s helping the cause is his 20% target share, 2nd best on DET. The Lions are currently T1 in PPG with BUF. For as long as they maintain that pace, it appears LaPorta should too.

Ranks

I’ve talked too much for one newsletter, so we’ll end things here with our weekly round-up of attempts and targets.

Enjoy your Sunday!