Issue #308: Piece of Mind
By Derrick Ernst
October 04, 2026
QB1
Last week’s issue couldn’t have come at a better time. I used to pre-plan issues topics weeks and months in advance. I’ve gotten away from that and now just fly by the seat of my pants. Over the past few weeks, I’ve felt like injuries have been the headliners on every platform as if they were a new concept. We’re not entirely in the clear yet either. Just the other day this was on ESPN’s homepage:
I’ve been doing this for several years now and it’s becoming a normal occurrence for each year to have its own Mount Rushmore of QB injuries, many being season-ending.
THIS ISN’T ANYTHING NEW.
The masses just think it is. And if the masses followed TDF they would have already know this. They also would have drafted a backup QB for their fantasy team, unlike these two managers in my main league:
Can you imagine having your season be in the hands of D. Watson and C. Ward? That’s game over. I know J. Daniels will likely see the field again this season, but it wasn’t like he was shredding up defenses in the first couple of weeks. I’m not going to spend another issue pounding the table on injuries and backups and QBs, but it is nice to make a call and be vindicated by it.
By the way, the only way to feel this is by making calls that go against the norm. If every crowd was right all the time we’d all be rich! Can’t happen, won’t happen. I’m just excited to play against Cam Ward in the coming weeks. Some people like to break down their matchups by comparing their team to their opponents position-by-position (QB vs. QB, RB1 vs. RB1, RB2 vs. RB2, etc). Instead of looking at a team holistically, in this sense the more positions you win, the better your chances are at winning your matchup.
Can you imagine the positional disadvantage a team is in who is forced into starting Cam Ward against the team who has a guy like Josh Allen? It’s soul-crushing. The position alone is enough to lose the week before it even begins. Seriously. Just like with injuries, I’m sure the masses will begin to talk about the importance of drafting a backup fantasy QB over the years to come — a 180 compared to what the consensus has been. Just like on the field, the position is simply too important to not have a backup plan. If you never have to entertain the backup at least you had the piece of mind all season long. That’s a victory in and of itself.
Infographics
I’ve been tasking Claude with helping me create some new infographics. Over the years I’ve leaned into lists. Not to say I’ll be getting rid of those entirely, but if given the chance, I’d like to spruce things up around here if you don’t mind.
Newcomers may not know this yet, but TDF’s two favorite fantasy stats don’t, by themselves, yield any points:
Attempts (Passing/Rushing)
Targets (Receiving)
What better place to start with some graphics than with these two (excl. passing attempts).
Source: Pro Football Reference
What do you think? Everyone A. Jeanty and above are already starting to separate themselves. The difference between those at the top and B. Hall is practically a game of work (15 att). Not every RB1 is built the same. What I like most about this is that the current top-ten is not just littered with R1 talent. Heck, A. Jones was ranked RB42 heading into the season and could be drafted in R10+. There are currently 23 RB’s who average double-digit fantasy points per game (half point PPR). A. Jones is the last one (the 23rd) in double-digit territory.
Moving onto targets (top-ten):
Source: Pro Football Reference
I haven’t had the opportunity yet to configure Claude to pull charts for passing attempts, but I do know for certain T. Shough leads the league heading into week 4. It’s little coincidence that C. Olave is the chief benefactor. The wealth is spread a bit more at WR. There are 45 receivers averaging double-digit fantasy points, 31 WRs and 14 TEs. When you exclude those who haven’t played in every game, that number shrinks to 37 players (27 at WR and 10 at TE).
Getting back to NO for a second, while J. Johnson (TE) only has 19 targets, 6 of them have come in the red zone (32%), best in the league for a TE. Those 6 targets have resulted in 3 TDs, again (tied for) best in the league at TE. He also has an 80% catch rate which is with the best of them. He’s not owned by a lot of teams based on ESPN’s ownership data, so if you’re hurting at the position, he’s not a bad place to look. With T. Etienne being placed on IR, NO may abandon the run for good.
A team that’s not represented in the top-ten is HOU. The Texans haven’t been a prolific passing offense for a while, but through three games, Stroud has the 5th most passing attempts in the league (120). At that level, you’d think there would be a Texan or two in the top-ten targets list. There’s a reason why there isn’t and it really all boils down to what is an inefficient and disjointed offense that is struggling to find its identity.
I know I said no more lists, but I’m on a plane and that’s my only option at the moment. Here’s a list of HOU target leaders, along with their catch rate.
Dalton Schultz, 25 (76%)
Xavier Hutchinson, 21 (43%)
Jared Wayne, 12 (33%)
Kayshon Boutte, 10 (60%)
Nico Collins, 10 (70%)
Jaylin Noel, 9 (56%)
There are others, but we’ll stop here. A few notable items:
Catch rates are horrid. Some of this is the WR’s fault, but I put most of the blame on Stroud. His contract talk will be one of the more interesting follows next offseason, especially if this ends up being a throwaway season
A TE is leading the charge, a result likely due to WR1 (Collins) being down. Like J. Johnson, D. Schultz doesn’t have much fantasy ownership. He’s also one of the TEs averaging double-digits fantasy points thus far
You won’t see this in this list, but Stroud only has 3 passing TDs this season. For QBs with 100+ attempts, that’s dead last
On an entirely different note, my wife and I have returned from overseas and are back in the states. Finally! This is the longest stretch (two weeks) I’ve gone without watching a single second of live football. I’ve watched highlights here and there, but it doesn’t have the same effect. There are other things that I’m looking forward to going back home to but I’ll spare you the time. Let’s just say I’ve eaten enough pizza, pasta, and pastries to last me a lifetime. A big Chipotle burrito is calling my name.
Enjoy America’s game today, you know I’ll sure be!
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