Issue #309: "In Contact"

By Derrick Ernst

October 11, 2026

Reminder

Officially a quarter of the way through most of our fantasy seasons. As cliche as it sounds, breaking your season into chunks is an effective way to not have it feel like a drag. We wait eight months to play a game for four months and yet by week five people are already ready to give up on it. The season itself evolves (bye weeks, in-season trades, coaching firings, injuries…) and as a result it makes the final 3/4’s of it look a lot different from the first 1/4. Not to mention the kinks that are being worked out to start a season too — it takes a few weeks for team’s to find their stride (although some still are). All that to say, let this be your reminder to not be the first in your league to get lackadaisical.

Throw in holidays too. The more the season progresses, the more people lose interest, get distracted, and let the other things of life take priority. All this to say, if the first quarter of the season didn’t go your way it doesn’t mean the other three quarters need or will go the same (and vice versa for those who had the cards come up their way). There are simply too many factors in play to know what teams are the best in your league after four weeks. Not every factor impacts just an NFL player too. There are even more (unpredictable) elements in play for fantasy managers — the ultimate decision-makers.

This bears repeating, in fantasy football, you’re not putting your team up against the NFL players on your opponent’s team. Instead, you’re playing against the decisions of your opponent. Starting the wrong RB can cost you the week. It’s not the RB’s fault that they didn’t fail to produce. It’s the manager who is at fault for making the decision not to start him. There are a lot of decisions to be made between now and the end of the season. Making better ones than the rest of the managers in your league, even marginally, should put and keep you in the driver’s seat at a higher clip.

Veterans

There’s nothing quite like a headline like this that gets the fantasy community going. I don’t know about your league, but Hill was picked up via waivers this week in mine. I have two words for those who claimed him: Buyer Beware.

I tasked Claude to pull notable veterans in recent memory that have signed with a team mid-season. What resulted was the following, sorted by fantasy output per game (half PPR):

What sticks out to you? For me it’s the gap between the top-three and the rest. Really, these players are fluff on our bench. Names that look impressive but provide little value. I’m also surprised by the unusualness of a player signing early in season like is being thrown around with Hill. There have only been a few vets that have signed and saw double-digit games. All it did for those players was adversely impact their per-game statistics.

Hill is currently 32, but is coming off an ACL tear, an injury more severe than anything anyone on this list was dealing with themselves at the time of their signing. Is Hill more talented than every one else in this list? Maybe (Julio Jones probably tops him). What’s different than any of these guys is that he’d be returning to a QB he has tremendous rapport with (assuming he signs with KC). That does probably mean there’s a higher rate of success that’s tied to Hill in the event he signs, but it doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee. There’s a bit of a reality check that comes with this too. Hill is seen as this player who put up 1,500 yards and 10 TDs every season for years and fantasy managers expect the same this time around. He isn’t invincible, but because that’s what he is known for in the minds of many, it’s hard for them to consider any other result.

Here’s where I stand when it comes to situations like this (mid-season veteran signings) in fantasy circles:

You’re only allowed to entertain them if you operate under the assumption that they likely will never start and you have a roster that has the capacity to accept a non-performer.

Let’s dissect this a bit more. Again, outside of the top-three from the list above, would you start any of those guys? I wouldn’t. But you hold onto them hoping they turn a corner for you to start them, which means taking up a bench spot. Maybe you have your team all figured out to effectively work through injuries, bye weeks, waiver claims, etc. but from my experience most of us don’t. Instead of eyeing up Hill on the waiver wire, I’d be more interested in seeing who was dropped in his place. Chances are they can have an immediate impact on your roster. Right now, Hill is the flashy (new) toy everyone wants a piece of because of the player he was of old.

From my tone, you can probably surmise that I’m not a fan of picking up Hill. Sometimes the boring names are the ones that produce despite the majority wanting flash for their league’s amusement. Not falling for it. What I am curious about too is how mid-season signings for veteran RBs have shaken out over the past handful of seasons. Calling on Claude once again:

The gap isn’t as apparent. Those at the top walked onto the team with a clear path at starting (something had happened to their team’s RB1). They also played the majority of the season. I know SEA passed on Joe Mixon earlier in the week, but it gets me wondering if he would’ve had success consistent with some of those who did it before him. He definitely had/has the talent to do it. If I had to guess, Mixon will sign with another team over the weeks to come. I’d be more interested in having him on my fantasy roster than Hill, but that’s coming from someone who is consistently partial to RBs.

Risers and Fallers

Last week I introduced a few new graphics and today I’m giving you another. Think of this as a combo of last week’s with a third column added (Passing Attempts). In past seasons I distributed supplemental stat sheets that outlined stuff of this kind. Given that I’ve gotten away from the auxiliary stuff to focus on the newsletter, my thinking is that each week of the regular season I’ll include this graphic to recap and track the stats that matter most.

I’ll leave this here for you to digest and dissect today. Next week, and weeks that follow, I’ll lean into a bit more commentary. Also note the X handle in the lower left corner. If you’re on the platform, I just started it with the primary focus being on highlighting attempts and targets across the league. My goal is to help fantasy managers filter through the noise and focus on what matters most. It’s only a matter of time until it catches on.