Issue #306: Another One

By Derrick Ernst

September 19, 2026

What a Game!

If you weren’t around last week to see, my wife and I were in Austin, TX for the Ohio State vs. Texas football game. What a game it was! You didn’t get that impression with how the first half went, but once Texas scored their first TD in the 4th quarter, you sensed momentum on their side was going to keep things interesting. Once Ohio State missed a field goal to put the game away with a few minutes left, you knew it was destiny. I’m glad the game turned out the way it did — made it feel like the prices we paid for tickets were worth it. Funny how that works. If Texas got blown out, I would’ve said it was the worst dollars ever spent. You get what you pay for, although with sports there’s a layer of uncertainty that makes it a gamble. The hope is that with better teams comes a better product. While by the end of Saturday’s game we got just that, the first half was a reminder for why it’s not always that way.

Before sharing some photos, I have a question for all of my TX subscribers: How do you bear the heat? In our two and half days spent in Austin, I sweated through six shirts, front and back. It made showering anytime other than before bed useless. I swear it took no more than fives minutes of walking outside for sweat to begin spotting on my shirt. I shouldn’t complain. I can’t imagine how soaked the football players are after a game. I feel bad for the equipment staff, grad assistants, and student managers. They’re the ones having to handle all of the laundry duties. That alone must be a full-time job. Picture time.

We witnessed a UT Austin student make the field goal on College Gameday!

Practically became best friends with Glenn Powell, Gameday’s celebrity guest picker.

Celebrated history with 100,000 Texas fans.

And ordered way too much food for two at  Terry Black’s Barbecue.

Needless to say, Austin treated us well. Too well for that matter. I don’t think I could’ve written a script better than what we lived out. Call it luck, call it planning, call it what you will, if we return, it’s going to be next to impossible to top this trip. Perhaps that means Austin should be a “one and done” for us. We came, we saw, we conquered. Let it be that and refrain from getting greedy.

Highs and Lows

This headline explained every bit of how I felt about week one.

How did you fare? Not so well myself. I shared with you last week my roster for the team I hold closest to my chest. That team just so happened to be matched up against the team that scored high points for the week. Readers from last year would tell you that that was a common occurrence. I got matched up against such team something like 1/3 of my games. They accounted for almost every one of my losses. That’s tough to do! I don’t know if there’s something in the water or what, but that trend has seemed to be carried forward into this season. This alone is a good reason why leagues should be rewarding the team that scores the most points in a given season. They don’t always have the best record with matchups getting in the way.

Get a load of these buckets of extremes. Below are notable players who scored less than 5 points and more than 25 points in week one (half point PPR scoring).

Under 5 Points

• Courtland Sutton, DEN: 1.1

• Ja’Marr Chase, CIN: 1.2

• George Kittle, SF: 1.2

• Terry McLaurin, WAS: 1.4

• AJ Brown, NE: 2.6

• Davante Adams, LAR: 2.6

• George Pickens, DAL: 2.8

• Tony Pollard, TEN: 3.4

• Drake London, ATL: 3.5

• JK Dobbins, DEN: 3.6

• MarShawn Lloyd, GB: 3.7

• DK Metcalf, PIT: 4.0

• Matthew Stafford, LAR: 4.1

• RJ Harvey, DEN: 4.1

• Jameson Williams, DET: 4.5

• Luther Burden, CHI: 4.5

• Quinshon Judkins, CAL: 5.0

Over 25 Points

• Caleb Williams, CHI: 37.3

• Josh Allen, BUF: 35.7

• Derrick Henry, BAL: 34.3

• D’Andre Swift, CHI: 31.4

• Bryce Young, CAR: 31.4

• Kenneth Walker, KC: 31.1

• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET: 28.6

• Ashton Jeanty, LV: 26.7

• Christian Watson, GB: 26.7

• Jaxon Dart, NYG: 26.6

• Trevor Lawrence, JAX: 26.1

• David Montgomery, HOU: 25.9

• Jalen Coker, CAR: 25.8

• Lamar Jackson, BAL: 25.0

I could go on, but you get the picture. There are a ton of big names here, especially on the low end. I don’t doubt that there were fantasy rosters in week one who failed to hit 50 points. There were probably just as many who scored 150+. Some of us were on the winning side of 50 and some of us were on the losing side of 150, like yours truly.

The point of me listing out all of these players is to highlight the unusualness of it. If D. Swift scores 30+ pts/gm he’ll have the best fantasy season ever. If D. London score under 5 pts/gm all season, he’ll be the biggest bust ever. Etc. Etc. Everything has a way of mean reverting (although Josh Allen has been on a heater through two games).

When it comes to week two, I have one simple rule of thumb: Start the same roster as you did for week one.

That’s right, every player down to your FLEX (unless injury prevents you to). As I’ve written about in the past, week two is the week that gets overreacted to the most. Wrong decisions from week one are compensated for in week two and in the process you miss out on cashing in on the thoughts, feelings, opinions, you originally formed about a player that got you excited about them in the first place. Nothing like having one game change an entire offseason’s worth of prep.

Do me a favor, don’t feed this beast. You deserve to see your team through. It takes time, so allow for it.

Substack

I’ve started a new venture!

One of the things I’ve been wanting to explore is a new writing outlet for all things non-NFL and fantasy football-related. So I created a blog on Substack to be just that. Think of it as a means of me sharing my opinion on the quirky things of life. I wrote my first post the other day on the topic of Chicago Mix. That’s right, the popcorn. Didn’t think it was possible to write about popcorn? Think again and check out the new digs if you’re interested!

Website Link: https://theworldasivewitnessedit.substack.com/

Take it from someone who subscribes to a ton of newsletters, diversification of topics can help a ton in keeping you from losing interest. Thank you for considering, it means a lot!