Issue #304: One More for Good Measure
By Derrick Ernst
September 06, 2026
What to Do About GB
Last issue before we have football games that actually matter!
Last issue of TDF’s third season too! For those who are newer to the newsletter, TDF’s unofficial season break is Labor Day. It’s a bit later this year which allowed an extra issue to sneak into season three.
Let’s get right into the details. Here are the ADPs for GB’s RB room:
Josh Jacobs: 68 (R6)
MarShawn Lloyd: 100 (R9)
Kaleb Johnson: 233 (R15+)
I saw a post on X the other day (Aug 30) that pretty much summed up the fantasy community’s thoughts on drafting Jacobs after being placed on the exempt list:
To recap, his range spanned from R3-13 with the OP snagging him in R8. Yes, it’s value, but even that feels a bit early for a player whose line of sight to seeing the field is infinitely open-ended. The question you should be asking yourself is at what point in your draft is it worth taking a question mark? Situations like these are nothing new. Assuming Jacobs slips he’ll be the one staring everyone back in the face in the seventh round and beyond. Sooner or later you’ll be at pick 100+ and someone will arbitrarily convince themselves that enough is enough and the value is worth the selection. What’s the value of a question mark? If you know the answer, than your set, because really every selection you make is a question mark. The difference between Jacobs and a guy like J. Gibbs is that there’s a level of certainty Gibbs plays, at least to begin the season.
In a lot of ways, that’s what ADP represents:
The price someone is willing to pay for the absence of unknowns.
Tell me if you’ve done this before — draft a player with name recognition to make your team appear better on paper and be more appealing to onlookers? What do you do after your draft? Take a look at every other roster in your league, of course! I bet you probably convince yourself that your team is superior to there’s too. We’ve all done it. This is what Jacobs represents this year, at least as it stands right now.
On the same day as the Jacobs post, I saw this poll’s results:
Interesting seeing this and comparing it to the aggregated ADP data which is seemingly lagging this sample size (2,500 folks). This feels closer to what I was expecting — that is Lloyd being more in that R6 range while Jacobs sitting in R10+. The thing is though, Lloyd is just as much of a question mark as Jacobs is. While questions around Jacobs involve this upcoming season, there’s a lot about Lloyd’s game that are unknown when you look at past seasons. Here are his career stats:
Did you catch that? 2024. He missed all of last season with soft-tissue injuries. Now ask yourself, what’s the value of question marks surrounding him? His ADP is rising because his playing time is less of an unknown than what his actual production will be, not vice versa. Jacobs is just the opposite.
In doing a little bit of research, the results for those who end up on the exempt list aren’t great. What’s most interesting is that the NFL has often waited to issue its own disciplinary actions until after the legal process has concluded (I presume as to not influence a judge/jury). In Jacobs’ case, his initial court appearance isn’t until Nov 17. That’s week 11. Say he debuts in week 12 (unlikely), that’s 12 weeks of Jacobs sitting on your bench collecting zeros.
So here’s how I’m playing GB’s backfield. I’m waiting. That means I’m not drafting Lloyd. Johnson will go undrafted and assuming Jacobs doesn’t I’d anticipate him being on the waiver wire in due time. In fact, because Jacobs isn’t injured he can’t go on IR and be stashed, at least not in ESPN standard leagues. Let’s see how week one shakes out. I’d suspect Johnson to be a popular waiver wire target over the first few weeks. He was someone I was extremely high on last season so I’m hoping a new change of scenery (that also comes with plenty of opportunity) will do him good. If so, I’ll be practicing what I preach and give him a look myself. As for Jacobs, leave him for someone else and keep tabs on his status as we inch towards the final third of the season. He may be able to help your team make a playoff run, although I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Mock Draft
There has been some shakeup to our Draft Guide over the past few weeks. With the season just days away, I figured I’d lock in my final mock draft for the record (based on our Draft Guide).
Ground rules as a reminder:
12-team half point PPR league
Standard roster (QB, 2x RB, 3x WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K, 5 Bench)
Early-round pick (1-4)
I can draft “down” in a round, but not “up”
The Draft
R1: Puka Nacua, LAR (WR)
R2: Josh Allen, BUF (QB)
R3: Malik Nabers, NYG (WR)
R4: D’Andre Swift, CHI (RB)
R5: Quinshon Judkins, CLE (RB)
R6: Josh Jacobs, GB (RB)
R7: Michael Pittman, PIT (WR)
R8: Michael Wilson, ARI (WR)
R9: George Kittle, SF (TE)
R10: Jakobi Meyers, JAX (WR)
R11: Woody Marks, HOU (RB)
R12: Tyler Shough, NO (QB)
R13: Keenan Allen, IND (WR)
R14: D/ST or K
R15: D/ST or K
The Roster
QB: Josh Allen, BUF
RB: D’Andre Swift, CHI
RB: Quinshon Judkins, CLE
WR: Puka Nacua, LAR
WR: Malik Nabers, NYG
WR: Michael Pittman, PIT
TE: George Kittle, SF
FLEX: Michael Wilson, ARI
D/ST: Pending availability
K: Pending availability
Bench: Woody Marks (RB), Josh Jacobs (RB), Jakobi Meyers (WR), Tyler Shough (QB), Keenan Allen (WR)
I say this every time we do one of these: This is a winning roster. With my inclination of drafting J. Allen in R2, having an early-round pick is preferred. I feel a pull towards stacking Swift and Judkins which makes my aversion towards drafting a WR in R1 more apparent than RB. While Puka is expected in week one, it doesn’t exempt him from a mid-season suspension. As you all know, his game is just too good to pass up for a big “if” that may never come. I’m ok taking that risk for the slap on the wrist that may come down the road.
Breaking News
The pitfalls of writing earlier in the week — it might be old and stale by the end of it! This is BIG! I’ll repeat what I previously said:
“The NFL has often waited to issue its own disciplinary actions until after the legal process has concluded."
Sep 10 (week 1) is a heck of a lot different than Nov 17 (week 11). To me, this pretty much guarantees Jacobs will play this season. The questions around him significantly lessen with this news — his playing time is more of a known and his production quality is on a whole different level than his peers. While this isn’t an end all be all to the situation, there is a better sense of clarity around his situation than there was just a few days ago. I know it’s a 180, but I’m now in on Jacobs. There’s one caveat, just make sure you’ve drafted at least 2/3 other RBs before doing so.
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