Issue #303: Demolition

Aug 30

5 min read

By Derrick Ernst

August 30, 2026

Impact

Man does it pay to have your fantasy draft(s) at the latest possible time. The number of injuries has been staggering. Perhaps “injury scares” would be better suited, but I’m struggling to remember the last time an offseason had this level of injury news. Injuries, as a topic, is anything but new to TDF. It’s part of the game, but I think people forget how impactful an injury can be, not only with the player itself (obviously), but to those around him too. For one, injury is risk and not the kind that comes with reward. Injury is the kind of risk you don’t want to be associated with, but have no control over, just like with everything else. Second, you don’t know when (or if) injury is coming and its level of severity can range across the spectrum.

When an injury happens its impact reverberates across their team and yours. In a lot of ways, injury to one means someone else (many times more than one) is impacted too. All of a sudden you thought you were in the clear, but your exposure to x team when their star player goes down means you’re having to deal with the consequences. I’ve gotten into “arguments” on X in the past with posts about which WR is the best of a group. When I pick WR C because of his QB and the relationship he has with them, the aversion to that has been that I’m bringing a QB into a conversation that was about WRs. They absolutely need to be a part of the conversation! JJ McCarthy quarterbacking for Justin Jefferson makes Jefferson a less impactful WR. Replace JJ with Kirk Cousins and the conversation is different.

The point I’m trying to make here is that injury acts the same. A top QB goes down, the backup is not likely to be as capable in getting the WR your roster the same level of production. There are ripple effects. The difference between an NFL roster and a fantasy roster is that you can do something about that more easily, but it doesn’t make the blow feel any less.

Not everything needs to have an opinion attached to it and while it’s not needed, I’m reminded in writing this that one of the sure-fire ways to ensure your fantasy roster is not as badly impacted by injury is drafting a reputable QB2 — not waiting to scavenge the waiver wire when it’s too late, but drafting a QB2 instead. Best case scenario, you never need him. The other best case scenario is that you do and you actually have someone you’re confident putting into your starting lineup. Remember what I said about risk? This strategy solves for it before you ever knew it was something you needed to account for.

I’ll be doing it and so should you. Strategies are meant to evolve. With how significant a QB is to a fantasy roster, why put it to chance when you can do something about it when you’re in control (during the draft)? Naysayers will implore that you’re wasting a roster spot. I say you’re hedging against the inevitable and leaving nothing to chance. In a game that’s full of it, these are the kind of moves that separate you from the rest of your league. Do you know what doesn’t? Drafting a RB6 in place of a QB2 and dropping them a week or two into the season for another guy you’ll be doing the same thing with in a matter of no time.

More News

One of TDF’s first poster children. We really only had one season to capitalize before injury took a toll, but for a stretch, Chubb was the guy. I wanted to touch on the situation for the team he most recently played for, HOU. It’s sounding a lot like it’s going to be a 50/50 split between D. Montgomery and W. Marks. I wanted to reiterate something I said about the two about a month ago (issue #294):

“I believe [Marks is] one of the most underrated (and misunderstood) players in fantasy heading into this season. My reason is simple: I think Montgomery’s is being projected more touches than what will be reality and Marks is being projected less.”

A month later and nothing has changed expect for the clarity we’ve gotten on their (presumed) split workload. Can someone explain to me then why their ADP’s remain so out of sorts:

D. Montgomery: 49 (R5)
W. Marks: 132 (R11)

Both of these ADP’s are right at the “turns” of their round so the gap could be even wider than meets the eye. This is me just reinforcing my beliefs, but it is funny how news carries different levels of severity and reactions to it vary just as much. I’d assume news of a 50/50 split would have moved the meter a bit more, but it could also mean most of the fantasy community doesn’t believe it. If that’s the case, then it’s the kind of reaction to news that TDF likes to see.

Here’s something that’s not so crazy, G. Kittle may very well finish with the most receiving yards on SF this year. He has nine seasons underneath his belt and has done it three times. In fact, this is where Kittle has finished on SF in terms of receiving yards each season (in order): 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3. Not bad for government work. And those two 3rd place finishes were his two injury-riddled seasons. I’m a bit worried about Evans’ health. The track record isn’t great for veteran WR’s performing well after being traded late in their career. I did say earlier this summer that Big Mike was an exception, but first a quad flare up, now a groining strain, there’s only so much the body can take, no matter how invincible they feel. I wouldn’t blame you if you faded Evans for Kittle in drafts. I’ll likely be doing the same.

Buckets

This is for my benefit to, but one thing that is missing from our Draft Guide is a breakdown of positions by round. The goal of the below is to help you plan. There’s nothing worse than going WR with your first 4 picks just to find out you should’ve entertained a RB along the way too.

Early Rounds 1-4