Issue #302: Ice Breaker
By Derrick Ernst
August 23, 2026
Non-Stop News
The news was non-stop this week. Just when you thought nothing could top what broke yesterday, bam, something heavier breaks. It’s weeks like this where I struggle to decide where to begin. This week was also a reminder to steer clear from making any major predictions early in the offseason. Why? You can look like a fool when the action actually begins. I try not to do this often, but sometimes a scenario presents itself that looks too good not to get excited about. I don’t have any shame showing my receipts and arguably my biggest prediction this offseason is starting to have a bunch of question marks around it:
Source: NBC News
If he misses time (I’m expecting he will), D. Swift is primed for another “under appreciated” season. I won’t belabor you all with the same screenshots I’ve shared before, but in CHI’s offense, Swift just works.
I’ve needed to make a decision on CLE’s WR room for a while and I’ve made it after seeing enough from his highlights: KC Concepcion. I came across this article from a CLE beat reporter (Dan Labbe, cleveland.com) and he conceptualized my thoughts of Concepcion better than I could:
Swiss Army knife. I like that. He has a bit of Deebo in him — Concepcion scored CLE’s lone TD last Saturday (8/15) by way of a fly sweep! Don’t get me wrong, Concepcion is the definition of a flyer (everyone on CLE except for Judkins is), but he has the most tools of those flyers and will be used in a way where they’re highlighted most. In other words, I believe his touches will be intentional — not something you often associate with a rookie.
Source: NBC News
A quick side note, Rotoworld (@rotoworld_fb) is one of my favorite follows on X. This news, along with Monangai’s are courtesy of them. Their links aren’t often hidden behind paywalls either. Plus their posts are clean and simple. No clutter, no marketing. Give them a follow, you won’t be disappointed.
In his article, Chad Graff was quoted saying “the Patriots want to take advantage of Henderson's big-play ability, but they believe in Stevenson a bit more to get what's blocked.” Sounds to me like Stevenson will be a glorified pass-blocker. This doesn’t change my feelings of either, or at least enough to change which of the two make the Draft Guide. This is the year we go swinging and Henderson fits that bill.
Plus, in D. Maye’s two years as QB, in terms of percentage of pass plays per game, NE has ranked 17th (in ’24) and 26th (in ’25). Again, I’d say this favors Henderson if Stevenson ends up being on the field more in passing situations vs. running.
Speaking of one that does have Draft Guide (attached) implications:
Welp to J. Downs. This signing has more impact on him than it will on T. Warren. And perhaps this comes at a good time. Downs’ draft stock has been rising to quick for comfort. When we first put him in our guide, his ADP was in R10. Now it’s in R8. K. Allen’s is off the board. IND’s HC, Shane Steichen was with LAC from ’14-’20 holding various offensive coaching positions. Needless to say, he has tremendous rapport with Allen.
Let’s play a game. Based on the last three seasons (Downs has only been in the league that long), guess which player’s stats belong to J. Downs and which belong to K. Allen.
Player A:
Player B:
How’d you do? This was probably pretty easy — Downs was Player A and Allen Player B. Assuming an outlier of a season is out of the equation, it’s not too outlandish to think ’26 is status quo for the two of them. By that I mean Downs finishes his usual WR40+ and Allen comes in somewhere in the early WR30’s. While 10ish spots doesn’t sound like much, it’s their ADP gap that is and because of that, we’re making a change. Hello K. Allen, goodbye J. Downs.
Plus the A. Kamara news. These unfortunate events just reinforce beliefs we’ve already had about NO, but the fact that neither ADP’s have changed all that much (for C. Olave and T. Etienne) feels to me like a bit of arbitrage. We basically have the fantasy community saying that they don’t believe either will produce more fantasy value with more looks. In fact, they’re saying the’ll produce the same level of fantasy value with more. AKA become less efficient.
Of course you want your roster to have efficient players on it, but we don’t know what a player is going to do with their opportunities. All we can do is lean into touches and hope what comes of them is something worthwhile. I remain high on both Olave and Etienne.
This isn’t me looking at all the Love fans and saying, “Told you so.” But it is an opportunity to highlight his backup, T. Allgeier who is ranked as RB47 with a R12 ADP. He’s spent three years as Bijan’s backup, playing in all 17 games each of those seasons. In those years, he’s finished between RB34-42 and has never averaged less than 9 opp/gm. He’s not a world-beater, but he’s reliable and tends to outperform (he’s had at least one top-7 finish in each of his four years). That upside is noteworthy.
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