Issue #296: Mad Money

By Derrick Ernst

July 30, 2026

Quick Decisions

I used to never miss an episode of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money. Now I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen it. For those unfamiliar, one segment of the show would be dedicated to call-ins where Jim would riff his quick thoughts on the caller’s question, usually regarding a stock. This was called the Lightning Round. A couple minutes would yield ten or so names you probably never heard of but made you feel equipped enough to throw some cash at them. Jim gets a bad rap for his takes, and while his track record my not always be great, I’ve always admired his wealth of knowledge — he puts in the time and it shows. We have about 20 names left in our “Still Deciding” section of our Draft Guide that need some attention. I figured I’d do a TDF Lightning Round and get through as many as I can before tiring out.

Quarterbacks

• Caleb Williams, CHI: I absolutely believe he’ll be the first Bear to ever throw for 4,000 yards this season. He was QB7 last season and even with DJ Moore gone there should be enough to go around for that to be reality. I wouldn’t mind one of those vet WR’s to sign with CHI either.

• Drake Maye, NE: I’m deciding to fade him. This is simply mean regression speaking. Everything went right for NE last season, no to mention the relatively easy schedule. I said it before, I think there’s a better chance he finishes closer to his rookie season’s fantasy finish (QB23) than his finish last year (QB3).

• Bo Nix, DEN: Remember how it essentially felt like Drew Brees went his entire career being viewed as underrated? I get that same impression with Nix. Were two years into his career and all he’s done is finish QB7 in back-to-back seasons. Call it the Sean Payton effect, but I just don’t see him setting Nix up for failure. I also think DEN is the team to beat in their division.

• Patrick Mahomes, KC: I’m going to say something controversial — KC’s dynasty is officially on pause. Not over, but on hiatus. What? Tom Brady took a break from winning too (per Google AI). I think you’re doing yourself a disservice getting long too many KC Chiefs this season. Mahomes is on track to be ready to roll by week one, and as much as I’m wowed by how short some of these recovery times are getting, his production has lagged significantly over previous seasons from what we’ve been used to seeing (and that was when he wasn’t coming off his first significant injury). I do think having Eric Bieniemy back will help the cause, but with Walker and Kelce already in our guide, I’m ok skipping the rest and seeing how it all shakes out.

• Justin Herbert, LAC: Anybody else feel like LAC is the biggest wild card of any team in the NFL? The recipe would’ve been a lot simpler if it wasn’t for Mike McDaniel joining the mix. I believe the most important thing to with LAC this season is not to get caught up in the hype. There is more of that with O. Hampton than with Herbert, but it has been five seasons since Herbert’s one and only top-QB8 fantasy finish. There’s hope that he returns to form and if that’s the case, it’ll come by way of Ladd and Johnston who we’ve both included in our guide.

Running Backs

• Tony Pollard, TEN: The fantasy community has something out for Pollard — almost to prove that he isn’t as good as his output suggests. I don’t know if it has something to do with his size, the team he plays for, his humble demeanor, or a combination of all three, but all he has done over the past five seasons is quietly yield RB2 worthy production. Both Robert Saleh (HC) and Brian Daboll (OC) like operating with a bell cow at RB. Pollard is just that. He’s also an underrated pass-catcher in my opinion, a role that will continued to be leaned into throughout C. Ward’s development. 250+ opportunities in R7 is tough to pass up.

• Ashton Jeanty, LV: He quietly had two RB1 outings last year. He also had five RB37 or worse weeks. I recently talked about the desire to have your first few picks be sure things — the “set ‘em and forget ‘em” kind. While he’s drafted to be that, there is bad that comes with the good. Jeanty’s ADP touches both J. Taylor and J. Cook. They both had just one game finishing RB37 or worse. Nobody is immune from a dud. You just want them to be few and far between. For the price, I like other options.

• Josh Jacobs, GB: There are some situations I simply don’t want to touch and this is one of them, GB’s RB room, that is. At least right now. Jacobs is in legal trouble. MarShawn Llyod has been injury riddled his entire career. Chris Brooks is on the active/non-football injury list and Pierre Strong didn’t record a single touch last season. What’s absurd is that GB ran the ball 5th most in the league in ’25. They were 3rd in the league in ’24. Lets monitor this the closer we get to the season. If Jacobs looks like he’ll get off free and clear, getting him in R3 (where his ADP currently sits) will be a steal.

Tight Ends

Let me just first say that I’ve felt a strong pull towards TE’s this offseason — I’m seeing a lot of value. I wouldn’t say this is necessarily a good thing as TE’s aren’t historically impactful fantasy scorers and when they are, there are only a select few each year. There are eight TE’s currently in our Draft Guide. I have several more listed below. There will be WR3’s who outscore some of these 15 or so TE’s I’ve honed in on. All this to say, as much as I want to be optimistic about all of these guys, I’m going to refrain from leaning so far in that I fall victim to looking like a fool a few weeks into the season.

• Chig Okonkwo, WSH: I haven’t see too many coaches get canned before Training Camp begins, especially if they were hired just months before. Every position has this, but it somehow feels more prevalent with TEs, in my opinion: the “steady state” players. The kind that will get you single-digit looks per game and by the end of the season it amounts to 50-75 receptions, 500-750 yards, and 3-5 TDs. This is the category Chig falls under. He's not worthy of being started on a weekly basis. When you do start him he puts up a dud and when you don’t he goes off for his best game of the season. Because we’re lacking space, there are other TEs that we noted as “Still Deciding” that fall into this camp too: Jack Ferguson (DAL), Dalton Kincaid (BUF), Dalton Schultz (HOU), Dallas Goedert (PHI). These kind of players are mental energy clogs — they’ll do more harm being on your roster than off of it.

• Isaiah Likely, NYG: I would like to take a victory and say that I was one of the first to predict the hype NYG would have around itself this season. I want Likely to have his breakout season, I just won’t be playing along. Having too much exposure to one thing is a recipe for disaster and the way things are going, there will be fantasy managers with rosters filled with Giants.

• T.J. Hockenson, MIN: Everyone thinks because Kyler liked throwing to McBride that he’ll like throwing to TJ too. I’m not buying it. ARI also didn’t have J. Jefferson on roster either. TJ has had only three top-12 fantasy finishes over the past two seasons. They restructured his contract to bring other bodies in. I’m fading this hype.

In classic fashion, I ran out of room. Tune into Sunday’s issue for some WR talk!