Issue #294: You're Tardy

By Derrick Ernst

July 23, 2026

Late-Rounds RBs

I mentioned on Sunday that I had Claude run the value analysis on RBs too, but instead of targets, on rushing attempts. While our Draft Guide does favor RBs at the moment, there were some interesting names that resulted. I figured we were doing ourselves a disservice by not considering them too. Let’s go through them, but first, let’s level set everyone on the criteria again:

• ADP needed to be 97 or higher (R9+)

• Attempts needed to be 136+ (8 att/gm)

• Their “value” (attempts rank vs. ADP rank calc) needed to be positive

I purposely had the attempt minimum be higher than targets from the other day (8 att vs. 5 tgt) due to YPC being vastly different. You would think that may condense the number of players we’re we’re working with, but it yielded almost the same number of WRs from Sunday (10 vs. 14):

One thing that’s considerably different from this list than our WR one is there’s only three players (30%) that have double-digit value, whereas with WRs, that number was ten (71%). Much like with WRs, we’ve already recommended some of these RBs, however, there are a few currently on our naughty list.

• Jordan James is CMC’s projected back-up. I’m still a believer that Kaelon Black will get his fair share too. This makes for an interesting “handcuff” dilemma.

• Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised to see a DEN RB make this list? We’ve already spent enough time taking about that room and made up our mind a few issues ago. I’m not going to revisit.

I did want to talk about a few others:

• Zach Charbonnet, SEA: Get a load of this (below). Not sure how much I’ve expressed this in the past, but I’m not much of a fan of rostering RBs who also have a role on Special Teams (although Kyren Williams is LAR’s punt returner). I’ve been pounding the table this offseason about Price having the better rookie season than Love. While this might still prove to be the case, it doesn’t necessarily mean we have to play along. I’m starting to think the price for Price (pun intended) is a bit steep. It’s currently R6 while Charbonnet’s is R12. If you recall, Charbonnet is coming off an ACL injury and isn’t expected back until midway through the season. That’s a long time for fantasy managers to wait. George Holani is a name to watch out for. He got first-team reps during OTA’s. If this continues throughout camp, he’s a deep sleeper to consider.

• Jordan Mason, MIN: It’s interesting seeing both MIN RB’s at a value. Seems to me that the fantasy community doesn’t quite know what to fully think of the two. Kyler needs to be a part of the equation too. MIN hasn’t historically ran the ball all that much under KOC and despite Kyler’s rushing ability, I’m not expecting that to change much (think of more efficiency than volume resulting). I said this briefly when we were going through MIN’s outlook in our divisional series, get ready for Mason’s skillset to be unlocked this season. He has been an underrated rusher throughout his career by way of playing the backup role. Assuming attempts stay consistent, I’d rather have the explosiveness at my disposal via Mason than the tried and true vet in Jones (especially in a KOC offense). Take a look what Mason has done with his touches throughout his career (below). Now envision what he could do with a full RB1 workload.

• Woody Marks, HOU: For comparison, David Montgomery has a -4 value in our model. He also has a R5 ADP (compared to R12 for Marks). I’m not going to spend much time here because Marks is already in our Draft Guide, but I did want to say that I believe he’s one of the most underrated (and misunderstood) players in fantasy heading into this season. My reason is simple: I think Montgomery’s is being projected more touches than what will be reality and Marks is being projected less. I also question how much of a “true” RB1 Montgomery will be. He has split workload with Gibbs for years and his touches have pretty much been on the decline every year since ’20. That year was the outlier of his career — I have difficulty seeing ’26 being a second.

Not Scared

This news in no way changes my thoughts on Etienne. Let this be your reminder that Kamara is coming of the worst season of his career. NO RB’s averaged 12.6 fantasy PPG, ranked dead last in the league. If HC, Kellen Moore, didn’t think they needed to address their rushing attack, he wouldn’t have gone out and handpicked Etienne. I’m a big believer in coaches going out and “getting their guys.” When this happens, there’s an intangible value that gets tied to them that makes them even more appealing. That’s what’s taking place with Etienne. Will Kamara still get some touches? Yes. I ultimately think this deal was more of a way to give him a proper sendoff. ’26 will be Kamara’s last and given what he has done for the franchise, having a little bit of a roadshow is warranted. Just wait until Cam Jordan has his.

Catchy Terms

Source: YouTube (Fantasy Stock Exchange)

I don’t know what it is about this offseason, but I’m seeing A LOT of personalities use the terms “ceiling” and “floor” in their projections. Long gone are the days of simply giving one projection. Not only are folks giving their projection, but bookending it with a low and high watermark. I think this is a way of of them thinking about protection. They’re ultimately protecting face in the event their original projection is proven false. News flash, all projections are. Make your projection gap large enough and you’re never wrong. That may sound good in theory, but it’s not realistic.

There needs to be a sense of reality to establish credibility. Without it and things start to appear fabricated. I also think these ceilings and floors add a layer of complexity to the game that’s unnecessary. Think back to the very first time you played fantasy. What were two areas you looked at most before drafting a player? Probably ranking and projection. Imagine layering in multiple projections across multiple players and picking one in 60 seconds. Unnecessary.