Issue #289: Porch Rocker

By Derrick Ernst

July 05, 2026

300

I figured no one needs a book on the Sunday of a holiday weekend so we’re keeping things to two pages today and avoiding making any heavy Draft Guide decisions.

First things first, issue 300 is right around the corner. If I don’t miss any issues (and I don’t plan on it), we’re looking at mid-August being when the big milestone arrives. This is an announcement of the announcement but #300 will mark a big change for TDF. For those of you not based out of MN, you probably haven’t heard of what’s known as a “MN goodbye.” The short of it is, Minnesotans don’t know how to say goodbye — when they attempt to leave a social setting they feel the need to go around and give their farewells to everyone. Before they know it, a goodbye takes 30 minutes. I’m just going to tell you now, there’s probably going to be some of that over the weeks to come, although this isn’t a goodbye, this is a change. Don’t worry, TDF isn’t going anywhere.

There comes a time when transformation is warranted — where a brand evolves its identity. That’s what’s on the horizon. Let me just say that this move will benefit everyone and will make things a lot simpler for subscribers. I’m excited for what’s to come and you should be to. Be on the lookout for more on this soon.

Return/Risk

Source: Ecosystem Valuation

Really what everyone who plays fantasy attempts to do is identify players who have the greatest return per unit of risk. That’s what we’ve been doing for months and those who make my cut end up in our Draft Guide. The reason I italicized my is that the price I’m willing to pay for a player is different from yours and thus our perceived value/surplus is different.

Think of it this way:

The fantasy community’s ADP for a player minus your ADP for that player equals the value you place on the player.

The more value a player has, the more intrigue that player has (and vice versa). As a fantasy draft takes shape, have you ever wondered to yourself why a manager makes the decision they did? Well, they’re going through their own value appraising. Good fantasy managers are unconsciously doing surplus maximization every draft — trying to pay less than their internal valuation as often as possible, across every pick.

The difference between realizing surplus with goods and services and fantasy football is that it’s recognized rather quickly with the former, but takes weeks upon months for the latter. Because of this, you need to exert patience with your decisions. The quicker you are to give up on a player, the smaller your opportunity for surplus becomes.

This brings me to the topic of the waiver wire — it’s essentially pure surplus hunting. A free and/or cheap FAAB bid on a player you value highly is the ultimate surplus play: their price is virtually zero, but your personal value of them is high. Back to what makes a good fantasy manager, not only do they seek surplus in draft preparations, but constantly throughout the course of the season.

Another glaring layer to fantasy football’s value equation is that it isn’t one dimensional for a player. It truly baffles me how a lot of folks don’t see that a player’s success is greatly dictated by the abilities of another (i.e. a WR’s statistical output is capped by the skills of his QB). A player’s value is also determined by the complementary pieces around them. Let’s say Dak goes down. What do you think that does for C. Lamb’s and G. Picken’s outlook? When a complementary piece is adversely impacted, the price you’re willing to pay for a player changes even though nothing changed about them directly. The math grows into becoming multifaceted.

Football itself is a team sport. I’d argue most people think fantasy football as being an individual sport. When you consider how complementary each player is to one another, it becomes more like the sport it represents than people think.