Issue #288: Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue

By Derrick Ernst

July 02, 2026

DEN Revisited

I want to get the DEN backfield correct so bad that I don’t know if you noticed I recently removed RJ Harvey from the Draft Guide. This out-of-nowhere news didn’t help the cause either:

He’s currently on track to be ready for Training Camp and according to Google there’s up to a 25% chance of re-injury. That’s not high, but for a RB who absorbs most tackles with his shoulders, I’d imagine this has the potential of being higher? Anyways, JK Dobbins is returning and is also coming off of injury (foot) — a routine occurrence for him season over season. I’m not hear to retract the statements I’ve already made about Harvey being the superior option versus Dobbins, but I am hear to talk about another RB in the mix.

I’ve been seeing some headlines from Sean Payton suggesting that he’d like DEN’s running game to share similarities to what he left in NO. If you recall, the Saints had a two-headed rushing attack with M. Ingram and A. Kamara that I feel sort of paved the way for the modern duo rushing schemes.

We’ve touched on Dobbins and Harvey. The third RB we need to consider is rookie, Jonah Coleman. Here’s how roles are being seen:

• JK Dobbins: Early down/lead RB

• J. Coleman: 3rd down/pass-catching RB

• RJ Harvey: Change of pace RB (relieving some work from both Dobbins & Coleman)

In other words:

• JK Dobbins is to M. Ingram

• J. Coleman is to A. Kamara

• RJ Harvey is to a little bit of both

Well wouldn’t you want exposure to both? Not necessarily. In some cases, having a little bit of both means you’re not being used to the fullest extent that gets the most production extracted from your play. At least that’s the way I see it. Others, not so much. Here are their current ADPs:

• JK Dobbins: 100 overall (R10)

• J. Coleman: 156 overall (R13)

• RJ Harvey: 77 overall (R7)

I’ll also admit that until a few weeks ago, I had never heard of J. Coleman. Better late than never! If the bull case for him is Kamara’s rookie season, watch out!

Let’s break this down a bit further. The 2025 Broncos RB’s had 354 rushing attempts and 117 targets. 58 of those targets (50%) came from Harvey. It’s going to sound like I’m making this up, but the 2024 Broncos RB’s had 350 rushing attempts and 117 targets (again!). That’s as close to a repeat as it can get. It’s not too outlandish to assume pretty similar numbers for 2026, right? Here’s where my head is at:

Rushing Attempts (Total: 350)

• JK Dobbins: 150 (43%)

• J. Coleman: 50 (14%)

• RJ Harvey: 125 (36%)

• Others: 25 (7%)

Targets (Total: 120)

• JK Dobbins: 10 (8%)

• J. Coleman: 60 (50%)

• RJ Harvey: 40 (33%)

• Others: 10 (8%)

If we assumed 4 YPCarry, 8 YPCatch, half point PPR, and 5 total TD’s each, these assumptions yield:

• JK Dobbins: 100 fantasy pts

• J. Coleman: 112 fantasy pts

• RJ Harvey: 122 fantasy pts

The point I’m trying to make is that I wouldn’t be surprised if each of these RBs finish the year ranked relatively close to each other. If that proves to be the case, wouldn’t you want to roster the one that yields the most value? I would.

This currently is J. Coleman. It wouldn’t surprise me either if the rankings of these three condensed throughout the summer. For now, I’m going to add J. Coleman to our Draft Guide, but if hype attaches itself to him the closer we get to the season, I may look elsewhere to get DEN exposure. Each of these RBs are capable enough to hold their own. The one we’re now suggesting is the only one of the bunch to have not proven it in the NFL (yet). We need to be careful to avoid getting caught up in what others are being persuaded by.

Burdened

Speaking of hype, if there was one player being defined by the word this offseason it’s this guy:

Source: Fantasy Life

With DJ Moore gone, let’s rehash CHI’s current receiving options (note their ADPs):

• R. Odunze, WR (60 ADP; R5)

• L. Burden, WR (44 ADP; R4)

• K. Raymond, WR (Undrafted)

• S. Miller, WR (Undrafted)

• C. Loveland, TE (40 ADP; R4)

• C. Kmet, TE (Undrafted)

20 spots separate the main trio. I don’t even need to look closer at fantasy ranks to know that’s the tightest of any team’s three receivers. My initial thinking was Loveland would be the value play, but golly, he’s the most expensive of the bunch. Drafting him effectively puts him in the same line of expectations that T. McBride and B. Bowers carry: they’ll be their team’s top statistical receiver. Maybe I don’t have a big enough imagination, but I just don’t see it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if CHI added a veteran WR to their roster. There are plenty out there looking for a home.

Let’s move to Odunze. He has the most value, but is it warranted? Maybe. He’s the deep ball threat to a QB who doesn’t throw that many deep balls. Last season C. Williams ranked 22nd in the league in YPP and the year before that he ranked 34th. His deep ball isn’t the greatest and it shows in Odunze’s stats. With two years underneath his belt, he has a catch rate of 51%! It’s pretty hard to do any worse. Again, this more has to do with Williams than it does Odunze, but this is why it’s necessary to consider who a WR’s QB is before drafting them.

There’s no doubt the hype around CHI’s receivers has to do with 100+ targets being up for grabs. If there isn’t another vet to enter onto the scene, CHI’s “Big 3” will see volume upticks. In his rookie season, Odunze saw 5.9 tgt/gm. Last season he saw 7.5 tgt/gm. He practically saw just as many tgts last year (90) playing only 12 games as he did his rookie year (101) playing all 17. If he’s able to stay on the field, it’s not outlandish to say 120 tgts are in reach. Odunze missed the last five games last year. Over that stretch, DJ Moore, Burden, and Loveland all scored 30% or more of their fantasy points for the entire season. Even if his catch rate isn’t ideal, Odunze is the type of fantasy player that screams aggression. Better yet, his presence is impactful more than what’s believed. That’s Draft Guide worthy. Burden is being compared to ARSB given he’ll play out of the slot and has a similar build. That is a big reason for his draft stock rising. I need to see it which means I’m ok passing until I do.

Last but not least, have a memorable 4th of July! Wear some red, white, and blue proud!