Issue #287: What Is Love?

By Derrick Ernst

June 28, 2026

No Love

Here’s something you don’t want to hear from your fantasy team’s potential RB1:

So you’re telling me you want to split carries…It’s one thing if there was a plethora of carries to go around, but when it comes to ARI, there hasn’t been a ton recently:

• 2025: 21.5 (32nd in league)

• 2024: 27.2 (11th in league)

• 2023: 27.7 (12th in league)

• 2022: 25.5 (20th in league)

Notice the decline last season relative to the years before. My guess is this is driven by K. Murray being healthy vs. not. Perhaps game flow and success (or lack thereof) had a part in it too. While I would anticipate ARI to lean more into rushing the ball in 2026 (LaFleur comes from LAR where they ran 13 personnel sets more than anyone else in the league and ran play action more frequently), I’m hard pressed to see to how J. Love can spit out production relative to his peers who have R2 ADPs. I’ve mentioned this before, ARI’s RB room is as crowded as it gets:

• Jeremiyah Love

• Tyler Allgeier

• James Conner

• Trey Benson

• Bam Knight

Let’s say there is a bump in rushes (25 or so a game). Even as lead back I struggle seeing more than 15 rushes/game for Love. At 4 YPC = 60 rushing yards a game. Throw in 3 catches per game at 8 YPC = 24 receiving yards a game. Rinse and repeat over 16 games (accounting for a missed game) while accounting for a TD every other game and you’re left with (half point PPR):

• 16 games

• 240 rushes

• 960 rushing yards (96 points)

• 48 catches (24 points)

• 384 receiving yards (38 points)

• 8 total TDs (48 points)

• 206 total fantasy points

ESPN’s Mike Clay projects J. Love to score 279 fantasy points. Game on. What’s a little odd is that he doesn’t project J. Conner or T. Benson to make the team. Something to monitor throughout Training Camp. Less bodies in the RB room will bode well for Love’s potential upside.

Love is currently ranked as RB13. If my projection proves correct, he’d be near RB24. The current RB24 is D. Swift who has an ADP of R5. I know I’ve been a downer on Love, but walking through exercises like this help me see if my thoughts align with the numbers. All projections are wrong from the very beginning — mine is and so is Mr. Clay’s. I’m not stopping you if your conviction on Love is a lot greater than mine. Just remember, you’re allowed to change your opinion over time as more information becomes available, whether that strengthens your stance or completely flips it. By the way, over the last ten seasons, there have been only ten rookies to have amassed 240+ rushes their rookie season. Some aren’t in the league anymore:

Source: Statmuse

Bill

I still don’t know if I should be calling him Bill or Jacory. JCM doesn’t really roll off the tongue either. Pass protection skills won’t translate into fantasy points, but it does translate to having more of an impactful role on a team. With the help from Google AI, I was pointed to PFF who ranks RB’s based on their pass-blocking abilities. Take a look who they rank 5th overall (there’s an interesting case here for J. Warren too):

There’s no doubt that White was signed to be the primary 3rd down/pass-catching RB. I have nothing to support this, but from a leverage standpoint, I think there’s something to be said about 3rd down RB’s having the upper hand on their early-down teammates. Hear me out, 3rd down RBs are brought in to be playmakers. They need to be dynamic enough to keep the ball moving. In some ways, in situations like these it’s the inefficiencies from the lead back that put a team in a position of need to make a 3rd down conversion. All this to say, momentum can easily shift to 3rd down backs becoming more of a three-down back than lead backs taking over 3rd down duties as well.

I also think this can come to a head quicker in situations like WSH has currently where White, the tried and true vet, lingers for his opportunity to overtake younger and unproven talent. What’s telling is that both White and JCM have an ADP in R10. It’s essentially a coin flip, at least that’s what the fantasy community is telling us today. Based on my skimming, this is the lowest RB1 you can draft of any team. That’s basically a free option. By that time in the draft your starting roster is pretty much locked up. It’s a good problem to have players on your bench be starting caliber. That gives you optionality and as a fantasy manager that’s a good thing to have as the season progresses.

Hallways

Source: Rotoworld

This would be a significant change from what took place last season. While B. Allen missed most of ’25 with a knee injury, B. Hall had 73% of RB carries and 55% of NYJ’s overall carries. Mind you, I. Davis played the same number of games as Hall (16) and only saw 43 carries. Also, Jets QBs had 111 rushes. Almost all of those came by way of J. Fields and T. Taylor who are both no longer with the team. There’s no way the Jets QB room puts up those same numbers this season. Score for the RBs.

Or really just a score for B. Hall? Both B. Allen and I. Davis have been in the league for two seasons. Allen has 110 career rushing attempts and Davis has 73. Excluding his rookie year, Hall averages 225 rushes/season. The Jets had 456 rushes last season. Assuming that declines with their QB room shaken up (400?) I don’t see any reason to believe Hall wouldn’t still see his share that is typical of him. That would leave 175 for others which doesn’t feel outlandish. Again, excluding his rookie season, Hall has never finished worse than RB18. He’s currently ranked as RB14. I was hoping for a bit more value, but it feels to me he has a reliable floor. If he falls in drafts, I’d be open to him.