Issue #286: Switcheroo

By Derrick Ernst

June 25, 2026

Mr. Brown

Let’s revisit a section I wrote a few weeks ago about NE when we were going through our divisional series:

“For one, 102 passes to S. Diggs last season will need to go to someone else. Could this someone else be AJ Brown? If it is, my views on Maye would change dramatically.”

I then went on to mention Maye’s relationship with TE, H. Henry and how he’s continually an undervalued fantasy asset. Let’s break down NE’s receiving situation a bit further. The largest target share on NE in Maye’s rookie season was H. Henry (20%) and last year was S. Diggs (21%). Henry’s was 18% last season too. All that to say, target hogs don’t exist on NE and frankly, Henry is the only consistent option.

Diggs finished as WR16 last season having only 1,013 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Where he made his money was receptions (he had 85 of them on 102 targets). That’s an incredible catch rate (83%). Seeing that now leads me to believe this was a big contributor to Maye’s success. Now Brown isn’t the same WR as Diggs and I definitely believe that will shine through. Yes, he’ll make some big plays, but it won’t come as consistently as what we saw from Diggs.

If you think this time might be different for Brown after rejoining forces with Vrabel, the most catches he had in a season under him in TEN was 70 and the most yards he had was 1,075 (both in 2020). Brown’s career catch rate is 64%. He doesn’t need to be 80%+ to have an impact, but with most leagues being PPR, it hurts his case.

What about TDs? I came across this the other day on X that actually made me more bullish on H. Henry (and D. Goedert). If I’m wrong on Brown, so be it. I’ll be leaving him for other managers in my leagues to draft and admit defeat when it’s warranted.

True Ladd

Some of my favorite follows on X are injury experts. Really they’re just doctors who have grown a following providing their opinions on sports-related injuries. This one caused me to pause my scrolling the other day. It also made me wonder if we should rethink our LAC WR exposure.

I pound the table about mid-rounds being where the money is made. Who sits at the beginning of those mid-rounds? None other than Ladd. I don’t love the idea of reinjury over the first half of the season. It’s unnecessary risk that can easily be avoided. I still think there can be upside to Ladd’s game, but it needs to come at a value. I wonder if he’ll carry an injury designation throughout Training Camp? If so, that may scare off his suitors. We’ll leave him in our Draft Guide for now, but a round beneath his current ADP.

There’s a name I’m seeing mentioned more than usual and it just so happens to be Ladd’s teammate, Q. Johnston. For the first four weeks of last season it looked like Johnston was going to be fantasy’s WR1. Then he fell off a cliff and was the WR we’ve known him to be in his three years in the league. Now Mike McDaniel is in town and he’s ready to throw a wrench in everything.

Here’s an excerpt from the article:

"I feel like the scheme he has is set up for the yards after catch," Johnston said. "There's not always a lot of room for that in this league but just showing us different angles and stuff to get to the ball after the catch and turning, going across field and doing different stuff in the plays he has built for us.”

Johnston later added: "In college, I was a big yard after catch guy so when he introduced some of those things to us during meetings and at practice, it lit me up a little bit. I'm really fired up about that.”

Let’s break this down. Let’s say there’s some consistency with Quentin’s game, things like his catch rate being higher and not missing time due to injury. If YAC is the gravy to his game, there’s notable upside. K. Allen being out the door also makes for an interesting case for Quentin. Allen led the team in targets last season. If Quentin gets a fraction of those (20%), he’s easily in line to see the most in his career.

You can get Quentin in R10. I just knocked Ladd down to R5. Last year Quentin was WR30 and Ladd was WR28. The caveat is Ladd played in two more games. I’m not saying 2026 will be a mirror to 2025. What I am saying is that for the value (5 rounds cheaper) and the wildcard factor (McDaniel calling plays), I wouldn’t feel the need to make Ladd a concrete part of your draft plans. There are others around his ADP (and our adjusted ADP) that I prefer more.

Going Downs

What separates J. Downs from his teammate, A. Pierce? YPC. Pierce averages 19 YPC for his career while Downs averages 11. Yes, I know there are other things but what if what Pierce has been schemed for specifically isn’t seen as a specialty anymore, rather commonplace amongst other IND WRs? That’s what’s happening here. It doesn’t help Pierce’s case either that his injury is lingering in the background.

Get this, Downs and Pierce have been playing together for three seasons. Downs has had more targets and receptions than Pierce in each of those seasons. They both average 4 TDs per season too. Downs’ ADP ranks him something like WR50. While that’s warranted given his history, I don’t think it’s taking into consideration upside from what outside looks may be on his horizon. For someone going in R10 (vs. Pierce in R6), he’s worth considering. Both he and Johnston have now officially been added to our guide. Late round WR adds were much needed.