Issue #285: Big Base

By Derrick Ernst

June 21, 2026

Repeatability

Did you ever play Big Base in gym class back in grade school? I remember it being one of my favorites. It’s essentially the same thing as kickball but mats are used as bases and as many people can be on a base at one time. The catch is, once you leave a base, there’s no turning back — you must get to the next base without getting out. Loads of fun.

So we’re going to continue on with our kicker conversation today. We made some good progress on Thursday. I’m hoping at the conclusion of today, we’ve landed on something concrete. The first thing we’re going to look at is repeatability — how often are the top kickers from one season remaining such the next. We ran it back five years on Thursday. We’ll do the same today.

2021

Kicker	Tm	Rank	Pts	LY Rank	LY Pts	Pts Diff
D. Carlson	LV	T1	147	T1	142	5
N. Folk	NE	T1	147	17	106	41
M. Gay	LAR	3	142	30	56	86
J. Tucker	BAL	4	135	8	127	8
T. Bass	BUF	T5	131	4	135	-4
C. Boswell	PIT	T5	131	24	90	41
J. Elliott	PHI	T5	131	29	61	70
G. Joseph	MIN	T8	130	n/a	n/a	n/a
M. Prater	ARI	T8	130	22	94	36
D. Hopkins	WAS	T10	126	18	104	22
R. Succop	TB	T10	126	6	133	-7

Ok. This isn’t telling me much. Pretty much everyone increased their point total YoY expect for a handful. Those that didn’t were studs at the time (Carlson, Tucker) and it was quite minimal for the two that saw a decline in points. In other words, only four kickers were consistent in production: the aforementioned Carlson and Tucker, along with Bass and Succop. Only one remains in the league (Bass). Noted.

2023

Kicker	Tm	Rank	Pts	LY Rank	LY Pts	Pts Diff
B. Aubrey	DAL	1	155	n/a	n/a	n/a
J. Tucker	BAL	2	142	2	136	6
H. Butker	KC	3	135	T28	86	49
J. Elliott	PHI	T4	133	T18	108	25
C. Santos	CHI	T4	133	27	88	45
J. Myers	SEA	6	131	1	140	-9
C. Dicker	LAC	T7	126	T28	86	40
M. Gay	IND	T7	126	T12	113	13
J. Sanders	MIA	T7	126	T12	113	13
B. Grupe	NO	10	123	n/a	n/a	n/a

Not sure if you caught it, but Gay and Sanders had the exact same fantasy output in back-to-back seasons. I can’t imagine that’s going to happen again any time soon. Nothing like Aubrey entering the league as a rookie and overtaking Tucker’s dominance. In his three seasons, he has yet to finish worse than K3. There’s something to be said about momentum. I think that’s in play with kickers more than any other position.

2025

Kicker	Tm	Rank	Pts	LY Rank	LY Pts	Pts Diff
J. Myers	SEA	1	164	15	111	53
K. Fairbairn	HOU	2	156	T6	136	20
B. Aubrey	DAL	3	149	3	143	6
C. Dicker	LAC	4	145	2	147	-2
C. Little	JAX	5	136	T17	106	30
T. Loop	BAL	6	130	n/a	n/a	n/a
A. Borregales	NE	7	129	n/a	n/a	n/a
J. Bates	DET	T8	128	5	139	-11
W. Reichard	MIN	T8	128	19	104	24
H. Butker	KC	10	125	26	88	37

If you’re wondering why the big swings for Butker, it’s due to his history of injury. When you think of a kicker you’d expect them to rarely miss games. That’s not the case for Butker. Here are his games played since ’22:

• 2022: 13

• 2023: 17

• 2024: 13

• 2025: 17

If you’re a believer in trend, watch out. If you’re not, in seasons where he has played all 17 games he has finished as K7 and K10.

Characteristics

Let’s talk about that concept of momentum first because I’m seeing some of it in these tables. In the most simplistic sense, we’re looking to capitalize on kickers who have been performing well YoY. One season of notable production may be a fluke. Two seasons and you might be onto something. Three-plus and you might as well not question it.

B. Aubrey is the current poster child of momentum amongst kickers. Some others that have wind in their sails include:

• C. Dicker, LAC

• K. Fairbairn, HOU

• J. Myers, SEA

• T. Bass, BUF

• J. Bates, DET

I took to Google AI and had a lengthy discussion(?) about what made kickers on these teams different. In other words, what is it about their team’s offense that has allowed them to outperform. We landed on them possessing at least 1 of 3 characteristics:

1. Pass-heavy

2. Failing to score TDs in the red zone

3. Running a lot of offensive plays

Here’s how the teams of our momentum kickers faired, plus a few others that were determined fit the bill (green = met goal).

With the exception of M. Evans leaving TB, there isn’t much change to the top three teams that met each goal (CIN, DAL, TB).

Based on Mike Clay’s current projected standings (Mike Clay’s 2026 NFL Projection Guide), he has these teams scoring the most in 2026:

1. LA Rams, 493 pts

2. Buffalo Bills, 472 pts

3. Dallas Cowboys, 459 pts

4. Detroit Lions, 452 pts

5. Cincinatti Bengals, 437 pts

Is it a coincidence that all five of these teams made the table above? I don’t think so. At this point we’re almost two full issues into discussing kickers, so I think it’s time we make some recommendations. Deal?

In no particular order: B. Aubrey, E. McPherson, C. McLaughlin, C. Dicker, K. Fairbairn, J. Bates, J. Myers, H. Mevis

T. Bass deserves to be an honorable mention. His upside is capped by how often BUF finds the end zone, but since entering the league in ’20 no other kicker has more extra point attempts. That’s a reliable floor.

That Time of the Year

The definition of clickbait. The most useless question to spend any amount of brainpower on. The opposite of enrichment. The folks at Fantasy Life are projecting Gibbs to score 321 points this season and Bijan to score 304. On a PPG basis, that exact 1. One stinken point. If you think one point is going to be a difference maker in your weekly matchups, you’re doing yourself a disservice. Think bigger and don’t get caught up in things like this.