Issue #284: Kickball
By Derrick Ernst
June 18, 2026
Thought Exercise
I had a thought the other day, how well do prediction markets predict the performance of a kicker? I’ve always said that when it comes to kickers, you want one on a team that scores points. I’ve never really backed that up except being backward-looking: DAL scored x amount of points in 2025 and B. Aubrey finished as the x ranked fantasy kicker. I wanted to change that thinking today by looking at past predictions and see if they can be a predictor of identifying a set of kickers worth pursuing. So that’s what we’re going to do today, look at what teams were predicted to score the most points leading up to a season and see how that team’s kicker fared by the end of it all. If there’s a pattern, we’ve hit the jackpot.
* = Played less than 16 games.
2025
Source: Sharp Football Analysis
Highest projected scoring teams: (1) BUF, (2) BAL, (3) CIN, (4) KC, (5) PHI
Kicker fantasy rankings:
M. Prater*, BUF (98 pts, K23)
T. Loop, BAL (130 pts, K6)
E. McPherson, CIN (113 pts, K15)
H. Butker, KC (125 pts, K10)
J. Elliott, PHI (94 pts, K24)
Avg. 112 pts, K17
Well that’s not a good start. I’m thinking if this continues to be the case, we’re going to need to take this a step deeper. I’m thinking something like offensive characteristics for kickers from top teams. TBD.
2024
Source: NFL
Highest projected scoring teams: (1) SF, (T2) BAL, (T2) MIA, (4) DAL, (5) DET
Kicker fantasy rankings:
J. Moody*, SF (94 pts, K23)
J. Tucker, BAL (118 pts, K13)
J. Sanders, MIA (133 pts, K8)
B. Aubrey, DAL (143 pts, K3)
J. Bates, DET (139 pts, K5)
Avg. 125 pts, K10
Three kickers inside the top-10. If you thought was good, just wait. This also marked the end to J. Tucker’s dominance. ’24 ended his nine year run finishing K8 or better. In six of those nine years he finished in the top-3.
2023
Source: Fox Sports
Highest projected scoring teams: (1) KC, (2) PHI, (3) CIN, (4) BUF, (5) DAL
Kicker fantasy rankings:
H. Butker, KC (135 pts, K3)
J. Elliott, PHI (133 pts, K4)
E. McPherson, CIN (113 pts, K20)
T. Bass, BUF (116 pts, K17)
B. Aubrey, DAL (155 pts, K1)
Avg. 130 pts, K7
This is the first year that the predictions market really got it right. Three kickers inside the top-5, now we’re talking. It’s also the second year in a row with DAL being seen as a top-scorer. That bodes well for B. Aubrey.
2022
Source: Sports Betting Dime
Highest projected scoring teams: (1) BUF, (2) KC, (3) TB, (4) LAC, (5) LAR
Kicker fantasy rankings:
T. Bass, BUF (125 pts, K7)
H. Butker*, KC (86 pts, K28)
R. Succop, TB (110 pts, K16)
D. Hopkins*, LAC (38 pts, K34)
M. Gay, LAR (113 pts, K12)
Avg. 94 pts, K25
A topic for another day, but I wonder how successful a backup kicker is at replicating the output of the starter they replace. C. Dicker took over for D. Hopkins and went 19 for 20 the rest of the season. He’s never looked back.
2021
Source: NFL
Highest projected scoring teams: (1) TB, (2) KC, (3) GB, (4) DAL, (5) BUF
Kicker fantasy rankings:
R. Succop, TB (126 pts, K11)
H. Butker, KC (119 pts, K14)
M. Crosby, GB (115 pts, K16)
G. Zuerlein, DAL (123 pts, K13)
T. Bass, BUF (131 pts, K5)
Avg. 123 pts, K13
Certainly the most consistent of the bunch. The gap between this group’s best kicker (K5) and worst (K16) is 11 spots.
How does that compare to the other four years (only including those who played in 16+ games)?
2022: K7 - K16 (9 spots)
2023: K1 - K20 (19 spots)
2024: K3 - K13 (10 spots)
2025: K6 - K24 (18 spots)
Avg. Gap: 13 spots
What this tells us is that for top-5 teams that are predicted to score the most, their kickers finish the season ranked in range that spans 13 spots. Ideally this would mean K1 - K13, which if that was the case you’re practically guaranteeing yourself a starting-caliber kicker. The caveat to this is that of the 25 kickers we just highlighted, there was only one instance of a K1 finish. That’s not a good hit rate and means that there’s a good chance your kicker isn’t worthy of being kept on your roster.
Why It’s Important to Get This Right
Source: Instagram (espnnfl)
Here are the last five K1’s:
2025: J. Meyers, SEA (164 pts)
2024: C. Bosewell, PIT (155 pts)
2023: B. Aubrey, DAL (155 pts)
2022: J. Meyers, SEA (140 pts)
2021: D. Carlson, LV (147 pts)
Avg. 152 pts (9.0/gm)
Because having a top kicker acts as a silent assassin — a player that your opponent overlooks, but yet outscores skilled position players without hesitation.
That average of 152 points would’ve been good for (in 2025):
RB24
WR11
TE2
That’s a significant advantage. Not everyone can have the K1, but for those that do, you must be sure to hold onto them. We’ve yet to do a good job at identifying how to go about finding K1’s, but I don’t think all that we did today was for nothing.
21 out of the 25 kickers we highlighted played 16+ games. Those 21 kickers averaged 124 points. That would’ve been good for:
2025: K11
2024: K10
2023: K10
2022: K8
2021: K13
That’s a pretty dang good floor. This all started out with me thinking prediction markets could help us identify top fantasy kickers. It depends on how you define “top,” but what I would say they do help us best with is identifying the floor for a group of kickers — a valuable piece of knowledge to have. Let’s see on Sunday if we can identify kicker ceiling patterns to round this all out.
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