Issue #282: Decompress
By Derrick Ernst
June 11, 2026
Draft Guide
Thanks for your patience again as I was returning home later in the evening on Sunday. I spent 48 hours at a cabin in northern MN with a group of buddies. It has been awhile since I was that remote. I was unreachable for just as much time as I was reachable. That’s how would define a weekend well spent.
Well, Sunday concluded our divisional series. I hope y’all enjoyed. Although I didn’t get to touch on every single player, I was able to comment on every player that I wanted. I figured today we’d take a breather from all the commentary and digest what the Draft Guide has started out to be.
Between “The Best of the Best” and “Sure Things” sections we have identified 55 players. Add in 30 more that need “further evaluation” and we’re practically set for the season. I’d expect 20 or so of these players to eventually make the cut. Add in some K and D/ST and we’ll be right around our goal of 100 players. I love when a plan comes together, especially when it’s only June.
There have been a few things popping up on my feed lately that are reinforcing some beliefs I’ve had about players this offseason. Either: (A) I’ve been swayed by these thoughts from others without realizing it or (B) others are starting to see what I am. I’m fine with the latter. It’s the former that I get worried about. Perhaps you’ve heard of financial advisors having their own financial advisor to keep them out of their own way? I wish I had that for my fantasy thoughts. The email inbox has been quiet lately. Maybe you guys could be my fantasy advisor? Give it some thought!
I believe last season I mentioned how I thought L. Coen would unlock a new side to Lawrence’s game in a way similar to what he did for Baker. Well, after a (quiet and sneaky) QB4 performance last season, it’s safe to say he did just that. Continuing to push the ball downfield tells me that ’25 won’t be an outlier to Lawrence’s game, rather a steppingstone. When I speak about drafting two QBs in fantasy, Lawrence fits the ideal bill for a trustworthy backup. Plus, this also makes me even more bullish on C. Rodriguez at RB knowing I can get him for dirt cheap. If JAX passes the ball more, B. Tuten’s upside may be capped more than people realize.
Hmmm. Let’s dissect:
MHJ —> D. Adams = Inconsistent targets, more redzone looks, TD dependent, boom or bust candidate
M. Wilson —> P. Nacua = Predictable targets, smoother production, less TDs in the redzone but more opportunities to score given target share
Y’all know which way I lean. If this does work out to be the case on the field, M. Wilson has incredible upside. Plus, as I’ve mentioned before, he’s cheaper than MHJ. This does get me thinking, however, about T. McBride’s involvement. Or maybe I shouldn’t be given he’s TBOTB? LAR didn’t have a TE comparable to McBride in any capacity.
You tell me, is this the kind of comment you want to read from a player yowder12 we3u’re about to draft to your fantasy team? I’m fine passing on Sutton in favor of DEN’s rushing attack. Maybe this means that I should be paying closer attention to Waddle, but there are too many others in DEN’s WR room that will get looks that I’m almost fine sticking with my gut and initial synopsis of the outlook for them this year.
Let me give you two scenarios:
Player A
Weeks 1-2: Scored 33 fantasy pts, 70% snap share, 166 total yds, and 2 TDs
Weeks 3-17: Scored 78 fantasy pts, 40% snap share, 568 total yds, and 2 TDs
Player B
Weeks 1-2: Scored 5 fantasy pts, 30% snap share, 35 total yds, and 0 TDs
Weeks 3-17: Scored 192 fantasy pts, 60% snap share, 1338 total yds, and 7 TDs
Player A was C. Hubbard and Player B was R. Dowdle. These were their stats from last season which resulted in Hubbard finishing as RB42 and Dowdle finishing as RB16. I’ve learned that Mike Kaye is a CAR beat writer for the Charlotte Observer. I don’t think he would be throwing around a statement like this unless he believed it had some merit. Now, J. Brooks is coming off two ACL tears. We still don’t know what he can bring to the table. His ADP falls in the undrafted bucket. A last round swing at him (with the intention of holding onto him for at least a month) may not be a bad idea.
Acquired
Source: Shortform
I had six hours to kill going to and from the cabin last weekend so I filled four hours with a podcast I’ve had saved on my phone for months (link above). This was my first time listening to Acquired’s podcast and I’m now officially hooked. The show leans more into the business side of what/who it is they talk about, which being someone who is in finance for a living, I dig.
My guess is that most people haven’t/don’t consider the economics of the NFL, let alone any sport. Despite them being forms of entertainment to the population, they’re businesses to their owners, players, and staff. This podcast not only dives into that side of the NFL, but the history of the sport too. Men like George Halas, Lamar Hunt, Al Davis, Paul Brown, amongst many others were true visionaries of the game. Without them, the NFL wouldn’t be the sport it is today. Before this podcast, I had only a brief understanding of this.
Isn’t it funny how you can grow to become a fan of something and not have a single clue how that thing came to be? That’s how I feel about all sports. Learning the beginnings really does give you a different kind of appreciation. I should also note that the podcast link will lead you to the remastered version of this episode. The guys at Acquired originally did their episode on the NFL in 2023. Given how much the sport’s landscape has evolved, they elected to revisit it earlier this year. The added commentary allows them to discuss what predictions they got right and wrong. I was reminded just how much the NFL has changed over just the past two seasons, chiefly with their international exposure. I’ve said this before, this is the next phases of the NFL. Why? The market is all but infinite. Enjoy the listen.
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