Issue #281: AFC West
By Derrick Ernst
June 07, 2026
Another Preamble
When you think of the AFC West, you think of playoff presence. Usually that means KC and another team, but last season was the exception to the rule. When you think of playoff teams, you probably think of some level of offensive success. You can understand then how surprised I was going through the AFC West and seeing how lackluster they fared offensively last year. The division’s best ranking across the three stat categories we’ve been highlighting was 13th (DEN’s pass yds/gm). When it gets to that point you either had to have a lot of things fall right for you, have a stout D/ST, or both. There was really only one team to fall within the “both” category in my opinion.
DEN
Link to ESPN’s Depth Charts homepage: NFL depth charts for all 32 teams
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 23.2 (15th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 220.4 (13th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 114.1 (21 in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Bo Nix
RB: J.K. Dobbins
WR: Courtland Sutton
WR: Jaylen Waddle
Honorable mentions:
RB: RJ Harvey
WR: Troy Franklin
TE: Evan Engram
How many of you need a reminder that Bo Nix will be entering ’26 coming back from injury? I’m not afraid to admit that I did. My timeline has been filled with P. Mahomes’ injury journey that Nix has been left to the wayside. This is also probably driven by Nix not being present at OTA’s and Mahomes is.
Speaking of Nix, he was one of two QB’s to have 600+ passing attempts last season. When you think of that many passes you probably think of a plethora of yards, but that hasn’t been the case. In his two seasons, he has yet to eclipse the 4,000 yard mark (or throw for 30+ TDs). Yet, he has found a way to go QB7 his rookie season, followed by QB6 last year. His favor towards high percentage throws is a big reason why. Nix targets RB’s almost more than any other QB in the league. RJ. Harvey was a big benefactor of this in ’25 and I’d expect that to continue. JK Dobbins has yet to play an entire season in his career and my expectations are for Harvey to overtake RB1 duties at some point this year. TEs are almost non-existent in Payton’s offense which leaves a packed WR room to explore. Throughout their careers, C. Sutton has averaged 9 half PPR fantasy points per game and J. Waddle has averaged 11. They’re virtually the same player: ~100 tgts, 60 rec, 1000 yds, 6 TDs. Good enough to be WR2/3 on your roster, but you’ll need to play them every week to fully realize their value. That means taking two or three low-single digit point weeks for every one high-teen point week.
KC
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 21.3 (20th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 214.1 (17th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 106.6 (24th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Kenneth Walker III
WR: Rashee Rice
TE: Travis Kelce
Honorable mentions:
WR: Xavier Worthy
Five RBs had at least one carry for KC last season (from most to least): (1) K. Hunt, (2) I. Pacheco, (3) B. Smith, (4) CEH, (5) D. Pierce. How many of these five are back on the team for ’26? One, B. Smith. How many carries do the other four leave behind? 292. I hope K. Walker is hungry. Have you seen photos of him at OTA’s? The guy’s neck is as big as an average man’s waist.
Source: X (@PolymarketBlitz)
I firmly believe K. Walker is the most talented RB KC has rostered since the days of J. Charles. He was fantasy’s #1 overall player for a season or two! This is a way of me saying that I think there’s upside to Walker’s current draft expectations. His ADP places him in R2. A guy who will potentially see 300 touches deserves R1 consideration. Unlike DEN, KC targets TE’s (aka T. Kelce) more than almost any other team. For as long as Kelce is TE, that won’t change. A lot of platforms rank him close to TE10. That’s absurd for a guy who has never finished worse than TE8 in his career. The fantasy community loves to underestimate Kelce as he ages (and probably because of his extracurriculars), but I just don’t see it. He still averages 80% snap share, close to tops in the league.
Games played each season of R. Rice’s career (in order): 16, 4, and 8. Add off the field issues (yes, I know he’ll be back for the season) and he’s someone that simply can’t get out of his own way. I hate players like this. Good for him if he has a career year. Let someone else in your league enjoy the headache.
LAC
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 20.6 (24th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 207.1 (19th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 119.7 (14th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Omarion Hampton
WR: Ladd McConkey
WR: Quentin Johnston
Honorable mentions:
RB: Keaton Mitchell
TE: David Njoku
LAC is the 31st team I’ve talked about over the past several weeks, but it’s the first team I have no idea how to interpret. I think this could go in any direction. This really stems from Mike McDaniel. When you think of his time in MIA, what comes to mind? My head goes to the success his RB’s had. By that I mean D. Achance and R. Mostert. Two explosive RB’s that excel outside the zone. It just so happens that LAC has two RB’s that fit that mold. O. Hampton is getting a TON of hype. It’s warranted given the upside, but there’s weight to the unknown that needs to be considered. LAC RB2 is K. Mitchell who physically mirrors D. Achane to the pound and has more of a skillset that matches the MIA product. He’s someone to consider as a deep sleeper.
McDaniel loves to put his WR’s into pre-snap motion and scheme to allow them to find open space for YAC upside. L. McConkey fits this mold perfectly. After a somewhat down year in ’25, I like his chances to revert to the upside and approach the level of output he put up his rookie year (WR12).
LV
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 14.2 (32nd in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 169.5 (28th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 77.5 (32nd in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Fernando Mendoza
RB: Ashton Jeanty
WR: Tre Tucker
TE: Brock Bowers (TBOTB)
Honorable mentions:
None
I need to be brief. In 29 career games, Bowers has finished worse than TE24 only once. He’s LV’s #1 receiving option and will continue to be so (his career target share is 20-25%). I fully expect however, A. Jeanty to be the centerpiece of new HC, Klink Kubiak’s offense. He’s versatile as a rusher and pass catcher — the perfect mix to support Mendoza’s development. Given Kubiak’s success with QBs, I expect him to lean into things that make his game as highly efficient as possible. A win for Bowers and Jeanty. Be careful to not over-draft them, however.
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