Issue #280: AFC South
By Derrick Ernst
June 04, 2026
HOU
Link to ESPN’s Depth Charts homepage: NFL depth charts for all 32 teams
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 23.7 (13th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 218.1 (16th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 108.6 (22th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: C.J. Stroud
RB: David Montgomery
WR: Nico Collins
TE: Dalton Schultz
Honorable mentions:
RB: Woody Marks
WR: Tank Dell
WR: Jayden Higgins
In his three seasons in the league. C.J. Stroud has gone QB11, QB18, and QB21. He has also led them to win totals of 10, 10, and 12, each season having lost in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Go figure, the most wins HOU has seen in the Stroud era came over his worst statistical season. We can all agree that it’s HOU’s defense keeping them competitive and while we can expect them to remain a force in ’26, HOU still needs to find a way to score points. Obviously. What’s not obvious and what I’m having a difficult time with is determining how they’re going to do so. I don’t like Stroud’s game enough to recommend him. Collins is the only WR worth rostering but he has a R2 ADP and an inconsistent QB throwing to him. This leaves us with RB.
Outside of ’24, DeMeco Ryans has leaned into splitting carries between two rushers. Despite D. Montgomery getting a lot of love by the fantasy community, I absolutely think W. Marks will have a role and it may evolve more significantly than many might believe.
IND
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 27.4 (7th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 227.8 (9th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 117.8 (17th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Daniel Jones
RB: Jonathan Taylor (TBOTB)
WR: Alec Pierce
TE: Tyler Warren
Honorable mentions:
WR: Josh Downs
In three of six seasons, J. Taylor has eclipsed 300 rushing attempts. Two of those three seasons he didn’t were plagued by injury. He doesn’t seem like the flashiest of players to draft in R1, but his production speaks for itself to not consider him. Before going down to injury last season, D. Jones was just outside the top five in passing yards/game. Signs are pointing to Jones being ready for the start of the season. Pick your poison as to whose recovery is more impressive, Jones’ or Mahomes’.
Pittman’s departure opens the door to an interesting situation at receiver. 100+ targets are now up for grabs. Pittman was the outlet and neither A. Pierce’s nor J. Downs’ game are at a level to replace it. Pierce stretches the field (he has a career 19 yards/catch) and while Downs may be tasked to replace some of Pittman’s game, it’s T. Warren who intrigues me most.
I don’t know about you, but it felt like the hype/excitement level around Warren waned over the course of last season. I believe for a hot second he was fantasy’s TE1. After IND’s week 11 bye he had only one top-12 finish and limped to the finish line. Not so coincidentally this stretch occurred when Jones got injured. I don’t have much doubt when I say that Warren will get a lion’s share of targets left behind from Pittman. He doesn’t need many more to cement himself in 2nd place (TE target leaders from ’25):
Source: State Muse
I also firmly believe he has a shot at being TE1 by the end of the season. For a TE you can get in R5, Warren needs to be someone you’re targeting.
JAX
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 27.7 (6th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 221.3 (12th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 117.2 (18th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Bhayshul Tuten
WR: Brian Thomas Jr.
WR: Jakobi Meyers
Honorable mentions:
RB: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
WR: Paker Washington
WR: Travis Hunter
TE: Brenton Strange
On paper, JAX has a ton of weapons. On the field they were able to put together what I would call a successful ’25 campaign too (13 wins, won division, scored 7th most points in the league). Let’s start with the RB room. T. Etienne’s exit means 300 touches are up for grabs. Uffdah. B. Tuten will be the assumed starter and will be drafted as such. Unless there’s something that points me to believe otherwise, I think that will prove to be flawed. As of today, C. Rodriguez’s ADP is in undrafted territory. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had double-digit TDs and finished the season as JAX’s lead RB.
When Lawrence threw the ball last year, it went to a WR 70% of the time. The issue with that becomes who will benefit? BTJ, Meyers, and PW (and Hunter!) all have their own set of talents. It seems like with these three it could be a flavor of the week in terms of who will flourish. When this is the case, I’ve found it best to want the common denominator. Lawrence had the best statistical (and fantasy) season of his career in ’25. It’s not 0% percent that ’26 proves to be even better. Having basically the same team run it back a second year should help with extracting momentous familiarity.
TEN
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 16.7 (30th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 166.1 (30th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 93.5 (30th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
RB: Tony Pollard
RB: Tyjae Spears
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Carnell Tate
Honorable mentions:
QB: Cam Ward
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson
It seems like someone’s throwing a prank on us with ranks for all three statistical categories being 30th in the league. I was expecting to see a bit better ranking in rushing. T. Pollard and D. Henry are the only two RBs to have rushed for 1,000+ yards in each of the last four seasons. They’ve both also scored 5+ rushing TDs each year over that span. That’s a reliable floor that I don’t anticipate going away in ’26, even with T. Spears continuing to linger in the background.
We need to discuss TEN’s new coaching staff. Robert Saleh is HC and Brian Daboll is OC. Over both of their previous HC stints, they’ve favored the run. Salah is more hands-on with the defense which I would anticipate leaves Daboll as the true play-caller. Over his time with NYG, his pass calling tendencies leaned into quick reads, play action, and run-pass options. Low but reliable volume. This too should favor Pollard and help stabilize Ward’s game.
I’m seeing a ton C. Tate hype on my feed which may be warranted. One thing that was missing for Ward in his first season was a consistent and reliable receiver (and one that could stay on the field for him to develop rapport with). Tate can be this (he was certainly drafted to be this) and was hand-picked by Daboll because he fits his system. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a significant step-up in performance from Ward this season because of Tate’s presence.
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