Issue #279: AFC North
By Derrick Ernst
May 31, 2026
Preamble
With these divisional issues, I usually take the few days before I begin writing them to think up a few “big" points to hit on. I’ve been struggling with that a bit with the AFC North. I finally figured out why. I feel like I’ve been saying the same things about these four teams since TDF’s beginnings:
BAL: Run-heavy pre-Henry. Run-heavy post-Henry. Lamar is one of the best in the league, but his ADP tends to always be near J. Allen’s and you know who I prefer.
CIN: Pass-heavy with two dynamic WRs. When J. Burrow is on the field, he’s a TDF prototypical QB: Pass attempts up the wazoo (he led the league in such as recently as ’24).
CLE: Typically a team to avoid except for the occasional RB. I was a fan of N. Chubb’s game and I grew quite fond of Q. Judkins’ as last season progressed.
PIT: A team where owning two RBs isn’t the worst idea — I’ve recommended it before. Their passing game hasn’t been the same since Big Ben left.
So with that, let’s see if I have anything else to say that varies from my longstanding thoughts. Sometimes thoughts of old can supersede thoughts of new. Or not. That’s why we play the game.
BAL
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 24.9 (10th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 175.6 (27th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 156.6 (2nd in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Lamar Jackson (TBOTB)
RB: Derrick Henry (TBOTB)
WR: Zay Flowers
TE: Mark Andrews
Honorable mentions:
WR: Ja’Kobi Lane
WR: Rashod Bateman
Even with a new coaching staff, my expectations are that BAL’s game remains consistent with years past. You might be wondering why I have Henry with a TBOTB tag, but even at 32 years old, he isn’t showing signs of slowing down. I’ve been caught saying over the years that maybe Henry should be avoided due to age. I’ve been wrong. I think we’re all wrong about him. He has been built different from the moment he entered the league. I’m not sure why we’re questioning his stature as he ages. It wouldn’t surprise me if he retired after going for 1,500 yds/15 TDs the year before.
I was surprised to see Z. Flowers have a 30% target share last season. Not many WRs get to that mark. In his three seasons in the league, he has had 100+ targets in each, 1,000+ receiving yards in two, and 85+ catches in one. The only thing lacking are TDs. Those should come with time. Also, with I. Likely gone, I’m liking M. Andrews’ chances of getting back to form in ’26. With everyone given up on him, I’d guess he can be drafted on the cheap.
CIN
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 24.4 (12th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 236.8 (5th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 93.6 (29th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
QB: Joe Burrow (TBOTB)
RB: Chase Brown
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (TBOTB)
WR: Tee Higgins
Honorable mentions:
WR: Andrei Iosivas
I’ve used this with other players before, but Burrow is becoming the CMC of QBs:
Source: Fantasy Footballers
He’s one of the best fantasy assets in the league when he’s on the field. Injury scare undoubtedly keeps his ADP lower than it should be. While Allen and Lamar carry 2/3 round ADPs, Burrow sits in R5. We won’t spend anytime talking about Chase. In five seasons in the league he has finished WR5 or better in three of them. Higgins on the other hand has never finished better than WR14, but in four of six seasons has been finished between that and WR22. I said something of the like last season that he has the talent to have Chase upside, but won’t be able to recognize such unless Chase misses time. You don’t draft Higgins thinking you’ll get Chase output. You draft Higgins knowing that you have an explosive WR available for one the of game’s most prolific passers (although Higgins does need to get better at staying on the field).
Lastly, there’s C. Brown. Who had he have a not so boring name would be talked about more. While he has had back-to-back 200+ carries seasons, it’s his pass-catching that makes him stand out. Last season, he had the 5th most in the league by a RB. That was good for a 17% share, second best on CIN. He was one that could fly under the radar the past few seasons. Not so much anymore.
CLE
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 16.4 (31st in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 165.1 (31st in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 97.0 (27th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
RB: Quinshon Judkins
WR: Jerry Jeudy
WR: Denzel Boston
WR: KC Concepcion
Honorable mentions:
TE: Harold Fannin Jr.
Unquestionably the division’s biggest ?. They don’t really excel in any area. I’m intrigued by Judkins’ game, but he will enter ’26 coming off injury. In games he played last season he was a ball hog, exactly what we look for in a RB. We don’t know who will come out ahead in the QB room. I will say that new HC, Todd Monken favored passing schemes to WRs in his time as BAL’s OC. If D. Watson emerges, we know from his time in HOU that he favors WRs as well. Perhaps that means Jeudy is worth a look, but maybe it’s best we wait this one out to see who favors who throughout training camp. TBD.
PIT
Last year offensive stat rankings:
Points/gm: 22.4 (17th in NFL)
Pass yds/gm: 198.2 (22th in NFL)
Rush yds/gm: 101.1 (26th in NFL)
“Core Four” fantasy assets:
RB: Jaylen Warren
RB: Rico Dowdle
WR: DK Metcalf
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
Honorable mentions:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
TE: Pat Freiermuth
Should I do it again? I can’t, can I? But what if it makes sense? But does it?…It does! Don’t draft one PIT RB unless you plan on drafting both. Unless ADP’s tell me otherwise over the course of the summer, this is where my head is at. Let me explain. Last season was A. Rodger’s lowest YPA of his career. In fact, his YPA have been on the decline for the past several seasons. As a result of this, K. Gainwell of all players led PIT in receptions. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that happens again this year.
J. Warren and K. Gainwell were perfect compliments last season. Warren finished as RB17 while Gainwell finished as RB20. This feels like a good baseline outcome to assume for Warren and Dowdle this year. PIT’s addition of M. Pittman also tells me that stretching the field isn’t going to be happening much as long as Rodgers is slinging the ball. Pittman’s career YPC is 10.8. Metcalf’s is 14.4. You can currently draft Pittman four rounds later. That’s an easy decision for me.
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