Issue #271: A Sea of People

By Derrick Ernst

April 30, 2026

Draft Recap

We have a new leader in the clubhouse. Incredible. Those drone shots of the Pittsburgh crowd looked photoshopped. The people just kept going and going.

805,000 people over the three days, a new NFL record for total attendance.

320,000 people attended day one, a new NFL record for a single day.

It was estimated that the NFL Draft resulted in $125-200 million in economic value for Pittsburgh. It’s no surprise cities are jumping at the bit to play host. Per Google AI, it’s estimated that a Super Bowl has an economic impact upwards of $1 billion for host cities. Let’s not write off the draft though. A free event brings in anywhere from 10-20%+ of economic impact as the creme de la creme and entails nothing more than people saying the names of other people. That’s saying a lot!

I’d like to revisit the last line of last Thursday’s issue: “Expect the No. 1 pick to be the only expected selection.” This pretty much was true. Do you know what makes the NFL Draft different from fantasy drafts? Predictability. When you think about it:

• NFL Draft = Unpredictable

• Fantasy Draft = Predictable

Let me explain, specifically about the latter. Foremost, there’s a communal draft board that almost everyone follows. What I mean by that is I find it very rare that someone creates their own draft board uninfluenced by what everyone else is referencing. Additionally, there isn’t much in the way of players falling. When they do, it’s not like it’s for rounds. It’s more like for a round.

Perhaps one of the more interesting topics I’ve written about in TDF has been about how the average fantasy manager doesn’t have much say in who they draft. Depending on what platform your draft takes place on, draft rankings and ADP calculations tell you who should be drafted and when. Again, 99% of people aren’t making their own draft boards which means they go off the information that is being fed to them. This is the definition of predictability if you asked for my opinion.

I couldn’t find anything to support this claim, but I bet when fantasy drafts take place the variability from who was drafted and when is pretty small relative to a league’s draft board rankings from the platform they utilize. Said another way, you can have a good idea for how a fantasy draft is going to go (most certainly for the first half) before it even begins based on what rankings a platform is shoving down your throat. This also gets into the idea that everyone doesn’t get to be right, but I’ll refrain from going in-depth on this. Just know that for the most part, fantasy rankings are relatively similar across platforms. If the vast majority leverages that info, it limits the ability to differentiate. Without doing so means you’re accepting mediocracy and refusing to consider factors that go against public opinion. It’s tough doing in the moment, but necessary for desirable results.

Washington DC is next year’s host to the draft and if the renderings look anything like what reality will be, it’s going to be one heck of an event. By the way, someone remind me not to make an attendance prediction next year. Or better yet, maybe I should just start guessing 1 billion attendees for every future venue because clearly we’re headed in that direction.

Source: The Architect’s Newspaper

Five Favorites

256 players were drafted over the course of three days from 75 different universities. We’re going to sift through those players and highlight five who I’m intrigued about heading into this season (no particular order).

1) Jadarian Price, SEA (RB): It may not be in any particular order for the remainders, but let it be clear that Price to SEA was my favorite pick of the draft. This is also me saying that I believe he’ll be the best performing rookie in fantasy too — even besting his former teammate, Jeremiyah Love. SEA runs the ball more than almost every team in the league. With Walker gone and Charbonnet banged up, Price has a very achievable path for RB1 production. The folks over at ESPN fantasy have already been releasing their stat line predictions for J. Love. I say Price has a better shot at hitting these:

2) Jordyn Tyson, NO (WR): NO was 4th in the league last year in passes per game. C. Olave was the only NO WR with over 45 receptions and with R. Shaheed being shipped to SEA, the Saints are starving for WR depth. Tyson gives them that and being that he’s a larger frame than Olave, T. Shough may be more encouraged to air it out. Plus, I still stand with my statement that Shough will be a sleeper fantasy option this season.

3) Max Klare, LAR (TE): Klare practically mirrors T. Higbee in build, but is 11 years younger and played in more games last season for Ohio State (14) than Higbee has with the Rams over the past two seasons (13). LAR hasn’t historically targeted TEs much, but I’d argue that it has been awhile since McVay has had an athletic TE at his disposal like Klare. He’ll probably go undrafted in most fantasy leagues, but keep your eyes on waivers as the season takes shape.

4) Antonio Williams, WSH (WR): Beyond an aging T. McLaurin, WSH has absolutely no one at WR. ’25 was a lost season which means anything goes in ’26, in my opinion. Priority #1 for WSH will be to get J. Daniels right. It’ll help having a former All-American on roster.

5) Ja’Kobi Lane, BAL (WR): I’ve been pounding the table for awhile about BAL’s need for a larger frame WR. Lane is that standing at 6’4”. I’ve given up on Bateman being complimentary to Flowers. While it might take a good chunk of the season to see it through, Lane has a good shot at being a productive WR2, especially with Henry aging and BAL perhaps leaning on the pass more frequently.

The most players drafted from a single college team in the corresponding draft is 2022’s Georgia Bulldogs squad with 15. Here are this year’s top teams:

Source: Instagram (nflondazn)

Let’s close with a bit a levity again. This is yet another reminder that no one has any clue about anything when it comes to the draft and who team’s draft and why: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/63mODKvkPyc