Issue #267: Varying Opinions

By Derrick Ernst

April 12, 2026

Avoiding the News

Something these two haven’t been the best at doing this offseason:

Imagine having a winning lottery ticket and putting it in the shredder before cashing it. That’s basically what’s happening here. I mean, Puka is lining himself up for the largest WR contract in league history. Cam’s second contract probably won’t be all that small either. This is all assuming they stay out of trouble.

I have an immense amount of appreciation for players who remain humble in spite of their on-the-field success. There are numerous examples of this across the league, but the majority come from non-flashy positions. Perhaps it comes with the territory. Let’s be honest with ourselves, the level of cockiness a WR exhibits versus an offensive lineman is unquestionably noticeable. Who are the players that get the headlines? Those who play positions that produce the most action, hence, the headlines I’ve screenshot. Also…

More headlines = more exposure.

More exposure = more people who have opinions of you.

More opinions = more popularity (or at least those who have your back).

With any topic, opinions on the matter will be spilt just about 50/50 no matter who or what is involved. For those a fan of the sport, 50% is a lot of people. All that too say, for as unconventional as biting or claiming this or that is fake might be, there’s a large group of people who side with the player. At the end of the day, the NFL and its teams are businesses, multi-billion dollar businesses, that is. Having players make headlines make them money.

More money = business is good.

Do I think these two specific headlines will prevent either from cashing in? No. Do I think they hurt either’s potential of NFL longevity? Potentially. Certainly so if they become commonplace. Then again, both are of the younger generation and calling it quits from the NFL before 30 may just be their plan. If you’re run in the NFL is 6-8 seasons instead of 10-12, you need to consolidate your impact into a smaller time table. Aka. You have a shorter amount of time to make your name as permanent as possible.

This too may be another reason why the “care” of younger athletes is dwindling (or at least their drive to win), or so it seems that way to me. If they already have their minds made up that their purpose of playing is for their second contract, you can take “larger” risks along the way the more that contract becomes certain. Once it is secured, all bets are off. Let’s just say that I don’t think this is the last time we’ll be seeing Puka or Skattebo making headlines.

Time Periods

I consider TDF to pretty much exclusively be a redraft-focus newsletter, but I know a few of you enjoy dynasty leagues more. If this is you, this next section will be up your alley.

Consider these three rookie seasons:

QB: 12 games, 53% completion, 2,074 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 12 INT

RB: 15 games, 25% snap share, 490 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 0 fumbles

WR: 16 games, 58% catch rate, 38 receptions, 446 receiving yards, 3 TDs

Any guesses? The QB is Josh Allen, the RB is Derrick Henry, and the WR is Davante Adams. Three HOFers who didn’t get off on so great of footing. There are plenty more examples. Heck, rookie Peyton Manning might be the prime example. 26 TDs to 28 INTs. I’d say his career turned out pretty well.

Source: Yahoo Sports

It’s worth noting again that you need to allow for your thoughts, feelings, opinions, spidey-senses around players to be seen through. Giving up on Peyton in year one would’ve made sense in real-time but looked foolish just a few years later. You are allowed to have varying opinions on the same player over different time periods, but I think we can all admit this is tough to do. It’s only human to put an immense amount of weight on what has taken place than what might be to come. This alone is what makes playing in a dynasty league fun.

Being that you’re in it for the long haul, I’d argue a recipe for success is to see what others don’t. By that I mean cashing in on players others have given up on. People do this on different scales too. Some have longer leashes than others.

• Those with shorter leashes may be more inclined to make rash decisions and may not request a large return for a player they’ve given up on.

• Those with longer leashes have more time to think and be more methodical and will likely request more in return because that’s their way of compensating for enduring pain longer.

You might be asking yourself, how the heck do you know if a player will be good over the course of their career if they’re hobbling along out of the gate? The short answer is, you don’t. The best way to ensure success is to give yourself opportunities for it. You can’t be selective. You got to know that you’re going to swing and miss and if that proves to be 9 out of 10 times, that one player will probably be worth it.

Swinging and missing this many times means you likely need to strike when the iron is hot. In other words, identify managers who have short leashes. Throw offers their way for players they thought were prized when they drafted them but have gotten off to slow starts. Even better if they’ve lost some weeks because of them. Seeing the value of someone over different time frames is a skill not many have. Recognizing when someone is over/under-performing relative to their career arc is also a skill not many have.

I encourage you to work on this for the upcoming season. Take some swings. Remember, TDF is going to be aggressive this year. With the NFL Draft right around the corner, what 2nd, 3rd, 4th year player will managers in your dynasty league be giving up on in favor of new flashy rookies? Honing in on them might be a good place to start.

Meme a Little

I’ve been pretty word-heavy these past few issues. What do you say we lean into some levity a bit to close?

Enjoy your Masters Sunday! I know I will.

Source: Facebook (NFL Memes)