Issue #257: Moving Pieces

By Derrick Ernst

March 08, 2026

Pre-Free Agency

One thing that gets lost in the offseason is pre-free agency activity. In other words, the activity teams do to free up cap space to get in the black for the new league year (a requirement). I believe it happens this way to ensure there are no implications to a team’s salary cap for the next season. For the sake of the here and now, the “dead” money tied to players cut this past week will go against the books in 2025 instead of 2026.

All this to say, these cut players widen the pool of free agents, a mechanism that makes for this time of year to be even more exciting. I mean, the QB class this year was looking pretty lackluster. You add K. Murray and K. Cousins to the bunch (who are also now the best two options at the position in my opinion) and that class got a face lift.

This doesn’t cover them all (see graphic on next page), but it does highlight the severity of importance this past week serves. For those who were here for TDF’s first offseason, I took it upon myself to guess the team and contract details of every notable free agent. I got a few correct, but it ultimately was an exercise I did for my own enjoyment to see how many I could get correct while going against the grain. It was nothing more than entertainment. I’ve gotten away from doing that and instead focus on the implications of the moves, notably from a fantasy lens.

My quick and dirty:

David Montgomery: This cements Joe Mixon will be out the door. HOU’s run game ranked 28th in fantasy production last season. Montgomery has the chance to be a bell cow, but I’m not writing off W. Marks. DeMeco Ryans has always mixed in multiple RB’s into his play-calling, even with Mixon. I suspect that to remain the case in ’26. It has been years since Montgomery was a true RB1. I’d be surprised if he comes into town and is that. He’ll certainly be drafted as if he will.

Breece Hall: I guess Hall and the Jets are working on a longer term deal? What incentive does Hall have to stay in NY? He has had a unique start to his career. ACL tear his rookie season, followed with a bell cow season, followed by two so-so seasons. For as long as NYJ have mediocrity under center, he’s going to remain that. He gets drafted as an RB1, but should be drafted as an RB2 with RB1 upside. The value needs to be there.

Kenneth Walker: I know I said I wasn’t going to make predictions, but I’m breaking that with KWIII. My bet is that he’ll resign with SEA. I also expected them to lock up JSN with a lucrative contract. They have the cap space and this is what happens when you win, you reward your players for their efforts. Walker’s output has actually been quite similar to Hall’s. The big difference is that KWIII has always had Charbonnet eating away touches. With him out next season (at least the beginning of it), KWIII would have RB1 upside unlike anything he has experience before.

Daniel Jones: A transition tag effectively means that other teams can offer a contract to Jones, however, IND has the right to match (or exceed) said contract.

• I’d like to remind everyone that Jones torn his ACL last season and is not expected to be ready to begin this upcoming year

• IND gave A. Richardson the right to seek a trade

• This leaves R. Leonard who in the final game of last season threw for 270 yards and two scores

Kyler Murray: We’re only one season removed from Murray finishing as QB10. In fact, in seasons he has played 14+ games (four of seven), he has finished as QB10 or better. If he lands with a team who is able to protect him, I think he’ll have no problem exceeding expectations. He’ll likely sign for less than Danny Dimes which bodes the question, four years from now, who will have performed better relative to their contract?

Onto a few names that weren’t in the screenshot:

Stefon Diggs: That was it. I think his career is over. When an (almost) rookie QB needs to be a big brother to someone ten years his elder, that’s when you know there’s an issue, notwithstanding their on-field efforts.

Jonnu Smith: I’m kind of sad his time in PIT didn’t work out better. He showed flashes for reasons we expected, but there just wasn’t enough opportunities for him to have fantasy relevance. He’s effective, but only in the right system. Fun fact, if Smith got all of Freiermuth’s production last season he would’ve finished as TE2.

DJ Moore: The biggest news to drop in my opinion. But will the juice be worth the squeeze? I don’t think so as much as others, but then again, all things are off with a new HC. Let’s see how Josh Allen’s WR1’s have performed throughout his career (excl. his rookie season in ’18).

• 2019: John Brown, WR20 (184 pts)

• 2020: Stefon Diggs, WR3 (265 pts)

• 2021: Stefon Diggs, WR7 (234 pts)

• 2022: Stefon Diggs, WR4 (263 pts)

• 2023: Stefon Diggs, WR10 (220 pts)

• 2024: Khalil Shakir, WR39 (145 pts)

• 2025: Khalil Shakir, WR38 (130 pts)

So the question becomes, will DJ Moore be the kind of player we saw out of Diggs from ’20-23 or a complimentary piece to a WR room that is pretty packed. I find what Joe Brady said about Keon Coleman a few weeks ago interesting:

He also went on Rich Eisen’s show around the same time and said, “I’m not going to let (Keon) fail.” I think Moore will have a good season, but for the price, I don’t think it will be worth it compared to a guy like Coleman who you can get for next to nothing.

Consensus

One of my favorite topics. It happens multiple times every offseason and we’re getting one early this year.

Three ESPN personalities (Orlovsky, Miller, Davenport) all with the same thought. Basically, ESPN’s entire football analytical department thinks the same thing. Everyone doesn’t get to be right. Love is becoming so consensus that I’m seeing some mocks have him as R1 talent and we don’t even know what team he’ll play for!

I’m not saying Love won’t be a good player. What I am saying is that the odds he’s worth the reach are slim. Remember, when it comes to rookies, managers want to be known as the one who believed in them more than anyone else. Because of that, his price will be high. He’s this year’s Jeanty but at a even loftier price (probably).