Issue #254: Poker

By Derrick Ernst

February 22, 2026

The Perfect Pair

I’ve always enjoyed the game of poker and recently I’ve been diving back into playing it more (on an app), specifically Texas hold ‘em. The more I play, the more I can’t help but think how similar it is to fantasy. Take the timing of cards for example:

• The Flop = Thursday night game

• The Turn = Sunday games

• The River = Monday night game

The more each day/game passes, the more information that becomes available. When you also think about it, your roster acts like the cards you are dealt. They’re yours and don’t belong, nor can be used, by anyone else. Let’s explore a few more:

Skill and Luck

A topic we talked about all the time. Like fantasy, poker demands a little of column A and a little of column B. You can’t have one without the other. Over the long run, if you make enough decisions in your favor, it often works out that more luck falls your way too. This is really more of a means of the quality of your decisions. Do enough of the things that give you an edge (your skill) and the law of large numbers will begin working in your favor.

Tiers

Ah, one of the many things that makes TDF different. A “stud” is a stud no matter if the likes of ESPN project them to score 20 points in a week and CBS projects them to have 19 points. What difference does it make? Poker has tiers too, in the form of hand ranks. Have a higher hand, the better chance you have to win. Have more “studs” than “duds,” the better chance you have to win.

Source: Denexa Games

Process

Past results aren’t a guarantee of future outcomes. The most classic example of this is when a guy on 99% of league waivers goes off for 30 points, becomes the #1 waiver target the next week, then puts up 3 points when everyone starts him. Actions like these are decisions being made based on what has been done in hindsight, not what is probabilistically sound. Sticking to your process and using information at your disposal is an edge, while placing weight on a first-time box score standout is likely not.

Emotional Intelligence

As much as it feels like fantasy is a grind, poker is probably more of such. Going on “tilt” in poker is equivalent to fantasy managers overreacting to short-term outcomes. Fantasy requires a healthy relationship with your emotions. Without it and you may find it’s easy to abandon long-term strategy because of week-to-week circumstance.

Reading Opponents

Remember a few months ago when I went on a rant that fantasy isn’t about player projections, but instead about your opponent? Poker is the same way. Yes, good cards can win on their own, but being able to read and react to your opponent’s moves will allow you to will yourself to a win no matter the cards you’ve been dealt.

But my favorite similarity that warrants it’s own section is…

Objectivity

When it comes down to it, good decisions can end with bad results and bad decisions can end with good results. When you choose to base your decisions off sound thinking and process, you not only distance yourself from being a reactive thinker, but an emotional fantasy manager as well. You must check your ego at the door. Allowing that to get the best of you will give you a false sense of confidence that may shade your ability to make sound decisions. Over the long run, focusing on the things your can control (strategy, preparation, dedication), will help you remain sane in a game that is full of uncertainty.