Issue #248: Backwards Thinking
By Derrick Ernst
February 01, 2026
Fail > Success
Huh? I was listening to an audio book the other day and the book drifted into the topic of how in life we’ll have exponentially more failures than successes. The argument the author was making was the more failures you can accumulate early on in your life, the more immune (and unaffected) you become to them later on. He leaned into two areas of life we can all relate to: (1) relationships and (2) work. The more you’re rejected by someone you’re attracted to, the more experience you have to refine what works and what doesn’t. The more interviews you have, the more confident you become in responding to whatever question an interviewer throws at you. The moral of it is, the more we do something, the more we become accustomed to the situation’s demands. The more the author talked, the more I couldn’t help connect the dots to fantasy. Let me explain.
Let’s assume a 15 player roster. How many of those players actually work out? Sure, every player on a roster should have their place, but you only start 2/3 of them. Those that are bench bound are kind of failures, right? At least in realms of your team. I’ll say what I’ve said numerous times already, at least 1/3 of the players you draft won’t be on your team by the end of the season. Those 1/3 of players are, for lack of a better word, failures. When you start to add up the pool of players your team touches throughout a season, the majority are ultimately failures. Heck, even a starting roster has a few players on it that we’re not so fond of but are forced into a corner and have no other options. As weird as it sounds, having an understanding that the majority of your team will be failure will make you immune to the ebbs and flows of the season.
What’s success in fantasy terms? It likely has a different definition depending on who you ask, but let’s be real, the common denominator to our definitions is likely production (and resulting ranking). To me, success = starting caliber:
Top-12: QB, TE, D/ST, K
Top-24: RB, WR
That’s 96 players. In a 12-team league, that’s 8 per team on average. Again, for a 15 player roster, almost half your roster isn’t a “success.” Again (x2), when you recognize fantasy is a losing game, the challenge of overcoming that more than your opponent makes a victory all the more sweet.
If 96 looks familiar, it’s because it’s the number of players I’m now striving our Draft Guide to include. I actually think I’ve said in the past I’ll target 100, but in reality, 96 is the exact number. A while ago, I wrote about if fantasy is more of a game luck or skill. Without looking back on that issue I think I copped out in saying it’s a combo of both. The more time passes, the more I become a believer in it being a game of luck. Which, as a newsletter writer whose goal is to give you an edge, me telling you that it’s a game of luck contradicts any sort of advice I’ve ever tried giving. This either makes you the crazy one for subscribing or me. It’s probably me.
Speaking of Crazy…
Source: The Athletic
Speaking of luck (or gamble). For as little as I’ve dipped my toes into trading cards this past year, I shouldn’t be as surprised as I am, but my gosh, even if Stidham led DEN to a SB win, I would have zero desire for his trading card. But it’s not about me and what I’ve learned about cards is that scarcity is king. Uniqueness drives value and the more of that a card elicits, the more desirable it is, notwithstanding the player.
I have a hard time with this, which is why I may never “get” the trading card space. Truthfully, it has a lot of similarities to fantasy in that the majority of players collectors will “go in” on will be failures. Betting on prospects is a popular way of getting in “low” in hopes of them blossoming into a darling of their league. While the upside grab is understood, it’s also a way to exhaust a lot of capital that won’t amount to anything. Everyone wants the home run, and albeit not as flashy, four singles results in the same outcome. Speaking of prospects and home runs, another thing that baffles me about collecting cards is that an unproven rookie’s card can run several hundred/thousand dollars while a HOF’s card can go for fractions of that. Again, it may just be a space I never get. And that’s ok, we don’t need to be experts in everything.
I struggled with this growing up as I thought I was missing out and not giving myself a shot to be a “mastermind of all things.” Turns out you don’t need to be that and you’ll be just fine. The moral of this all is that there’s a market for everything and if the person on both ends of the deal are satisfied, then that’s a capitalistic society at work. And yes, this even includes deals with Stidham at the center of it. Aka. Satisfactory comes in many different forms.
Same Face, New Place?
It’s never too early to talk about next season. We’ve been doing it with HC’s, it’s about time we do it with players. I’ve been pretty word-heavy up to this point, so here are some of the top pending free agents that will have fantasy implications for ’26 (current age succeeding each player’s name).
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, 42
Daniel Jones, 28
Russell Wilson, 37
Marcus Mariota, 32
Mitch Trubisky, 31
Trey Lance, 25
Kenny Pickett, 27
Running Backs
Breece Hall, 24
Kenneth Walker III, 25
Travis Etienne, 27
Austin Ekeler, 30
Najee Harris, 27
Javonte Williams, 25
Nick Chubb, 30
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans, 32
Deebo Samuel, 30
Hollywood Brown, 28
Jauan Jennings, 28
Christian Kirk, 29
Alec Pierce, 25
Wan’dale Robinson, 25
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce, 36
David Njoku, 29
Kyle Pitts, 25
Dallas Goedert, 31
Noah Fant, 28
Tyler Higbee, 33
Zach Ertz, 35
Other Notable Names
Trey Hendrickson (EDGE), 31
Trevon Diggs (S), 28
Khalil Mack (EDGE), 34
Haason Reddick (EDGE), 31
Joey Bosa (EDGE), 30
Cam Robinson (T), 30
Daniel Carlson (K), 31
With FA contracts for RB’s trending on the low end in duration, get ready for it to be wild season at the position year in, year out.
Comments