Issue #244: Left in the Dust

By Derrick Ernst

January 18, 2026

Top Dogs Continued…

It’s quite remarkable how easy it is for me to go on a rant when I get to writing. Thursday wasn’t the first time I had intentions of continuing a topic but got distracted by something else. If my distractions are value add for you guys, then is it really a bad thing? Hard to argue it is. Anyways, back to our “Top Dog” topic. Let’s recap 2025:

• QB1: J. Allen, BUF (365 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 11 (spent final 8 as QB1)

• RB1: C. McCaffrey, SF (366 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 16 (spent final 3 as RB1)

• WR1: P. Nacua, LAR (311 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 18

• TE1: T. McBride, ARI (253 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 10 (spent final 9 as TE1)

For the sake of space, I’m going to exclude the before and after average fantasy points tidbits. With the exception of T. McBride, everyone else’s ‘before’ and ‘after’ was pretty much the same. Let’s see what other years bring.

2024

• QB1: L. Jackson, BAL (440 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 5 (spent final 14 as QB1)

• RB1: S. Barkley, PHI (369 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 12 (spent final 7 as RB1)

• WR1: J. Chase, CIN (355 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 5 (spent final 14 as WR1)

• TE1: B. Bowers, LV (213 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 18

I should note that by “Week assumed” I actually mean “Final week assumed.” I meant for the parentheses to imply this, but I’m realizing that may not have been as clear as I was hoping. This also means the player that finished the season as top dog may have been such in week 3, overtaken in week 4, regained the status in week 5 and stayed there for the rest of the season. I find it odd (perhaps coincidental) that for two years in a row a top dog came to be in week 18. Let’s see if we can make it three years.

2023

• QB1: J. Allen, BUF (411 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 5 (spent final 14 as QB1)

• RB1: C. McCaffrey, SF (358 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 4 (spent final 15 as RB1)

• WR1: C. Lamb, DAL (336 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 17 (spent final 1 as WR1)

• TE1: S. LaPorta, DET (196 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 15 (spent final 4 as TE1)

Close, but no cigar. C. Lamb was one week away from making it three years running. Let’s see what ’22 holds. If another 18 presents itself, I’m counting ’23 to keep the streak going. By the way, this is the second year in a row QB’s make their presence known by week 5.

2022

• QB1: P. Mahomes, KC (429 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 16 (spent final 3 as QB1)

• RB1: A. Ekeler, LAC (319 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 16 (spent final 3 as RB1)

• WR1: J. Jefferson, MIN (305 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 14 (spent final 5 as WR1)

• TE1: T. Kelce, KC (261 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 4 (spent final 15 as TE1)

Up to this point we’ve looked at 16 top dogs. Of those, eight (50%) have earned the title by week 14 or later. Of those, seven (88%) are non-QB’s. I’m not surprised given the turnover at the positions, but this also speaks to the idea (not like we needed another argument) to not fall for the trap of drafting a RB1/WR1 from the year prior with the expectation they’ll repeat their production. Can it happen? Yes. Does it happen as often as people think? No.

2021

• QB1: J. Allen, BUF (418 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 14 (spent final 5 as QB1)

• RB1: J. Taylor, IND (353 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 10 (spent final 9 as RB1)

• WR1: C. Kupp, LAR (367 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 6 (spent final 13 as WR1)

• TE1: M. Andrews, BAL (248 half PPR pts); Week assumed: 14 (spent final 5 as TE1)

Final count: 20 top dogs with ten (50%) earning top dog status in week 14 or later. Mean reversion at its finest. The more time you give something the more its results will balance out.

Recap (2021-25)

I’m just going to list the “week assumed” by position starting with ’21 and working to ’25.

• QB1: 14, 16, 5, 5, 11 (Avg 10)

• RB1: 10, 16, 4, 12, 16 (Avg 12)

• WR1: 6, 14, 17, 5, 18 (Avg 12)

• TE1: 14, 4, 15, 18, 10 (Avg 12)

When comparing two options, my wife likes to say “horse a piece” whenever the situation calls for it. This feels like one of those times. No one position really has an advantage over another in terms of running away from their competition. What this does tells us is that by 2/3 of the way through the season, you have a pretty good idea who is going to be #1 at their position. That’s saying something.

There likely isn’t much you as a fantasy manager can do with this info. By that point in the season it’s either past your league’s trade deadline or the team who has them won’t have any interest in trading them away. What this info does provide is confidence that if you happen to roster x player 2/3 of the way into the season, you can rest easy knowing that you have what nobody else does, a top dog.

Don’t Say I Told You So

	Team	Coach Record	Old Coach	New Coach
AFC	LV	3 - 14 (.180)	Pete Carroll	Open
	MIA	35 - 33 (.515)	Mike McDaniel	Open
	CLE	46 - 58 (.440)	Kevin Stefanski	Open
	PIT	201 - 125 - 2 (.616)	Mike Tomlin	Open
	BAL	193 - 124 (.610)	John Harbaugh	Open
	TEN	4 - 19 (.170)	Brian Callahan	Open
NFC	ARI	15 - 36 (.290)	Jon Gannon	Open
	ATL	16 - 18 (.470)	Raheem Morris	Open
	NYG	21 - 41 - 1 (.340)	Brian Daboll	John Harbaugh

This could potentially end up being the best call in TDF’s history (stated on Dec 21, 2025):

“I’ve shared this before and I’ll say it again, I’m all in on Dart next season. I also think NYG will be the NFL’s biggest turnaround story in ’26.”

Now a coach can only do so much to ensure execution on the field, but one could argue the hiring of Harbaugh is the best thing to happen to NYG since their latest Super Bowl win. Remember Tom Coughlin’s Rudolph nose from back in the day? Do you also remember how Tom Coughlin has always looked 80? This was taken 17 years ago to almost the day. Two weeks later they beat NE in Super Bowl XLII.

Source: Facebook (SNY)

I bring this up because Harbaugh is the same age today as Coughlin was when this was taken. They say 50 is the new 40, 60 is the new 50…this pretty much proves that point.

Source: Harbaugh Coaching Academy