Issue #243: Shirtless

By Derrick Ernst

January 15, 2026

The Ben Johnson Effect

I was reminded when I was watching the Bears vs. Packers game that CHI has never had a 4,000 yard passer. ’25 was the closest anyone has ever gotten. How close? 58 yards close. There were only six players to eclipse 4,000 passing yards this season. That tied last year’s count, but both years undermine the ten players who did it in ’23, the nine who did it in ’22, and the ten who did it in ’21. That averages out to be ~8 players a season over the last five which means 25% of the league’s QB’s in any given year get to sit in rare company.

I was also reminded as C. Williams was leading CHI to a Q4 comeback how much of an impact Ben Johnson has had on him (and others) in his first season as HC. He was DET’s OC for three seasons (2022-24) and had very much the same success. My gut feels like the trajectory of those under him in DET is something that’s in store for those in CHI. Let’s take a peak at what the successes of old looked like to get a sense for what might be to come.

Quarterback

• ’22 DET: J. Goff, QB10 (284 pts, 4438 pass yds, 29 pass TD, 73 rush yds, 0 rush TD)

• ’23 DET: J. Goff, QB7 (289 pts, 4575 pass yds, 30 pass TD, 21 rush yds, 2 rush TD)

• ’24 DET: J. Goff, QB6 (324 pts, 4629 pass yds, 37 pass TD, 56 rush yds, 0 rush TD)

• ’25 CHI: C. Williams, QB7 (316 pts, 3942 pass yds, 27 pass TD, 383 rush yds, 3 rush TD)

Based on what we seen from Goff, what excites me the most about Williams’ prospects is his passing upside. He already runs more than Goff ever has. Getting to 4,000 and 30 TD’s will put Williams in QB5 (or better) territory. That could really come as early as next season.

Source: Facebook (Chicago Bears on CBS Sports)

Running Back

Depicting the RB that had the best fantasy finish

• ’22 DET: D. Swift, RB22 (167 pts, 542 rush yds, 5 rush TD, 389 rec yds, 3 rec TD)

• ’23 DET: J. Gibbs, RB10 (216 pts, 945 rush yds, 10 rush TD, 316 rec yds, 1 rec TD)

• ’24 DET: J. Gibbs, RB3 (337 pts, 1412 rush yds, 16 rush TD, 517 rec yds, 4 rec TD)

• ’25 CHI: D. Swift, RB14 (212 pts, 1087 rush yds, 9 rush TD, 299 rec yds, 1 rec TD)

CHI’s split between rushes and passes per game was 46% to 54%, respectively. Last year with DET, that split was 48% to 52%. Needless to say, Johnson likes operating a balanced offense. Whether it’s Swift moving forward or someone else, there should be enough to go around for them to produce starting fantasy RB numbers. Speaking of starting numbers, it’s hard to argue against Swift’s consistency:

Source: Fantasy Footballers

Wide Receiver

Depicting the WR that had the best fantasy finish

• ’22 DET: A. St. Brown, WR8 (215 pts, 1161 rec yds, 6 rec TD, 95 rush yds, 0 rush TD)

• ’23 DET: A. St. Brown, WR3 (271 pts, 1515 rec yds, 10 rec TD, 24 rush yds, 0 rush TD)

• ’24 DET: A. St. Brown, WR3 (259 pts, 1263 rec yds, 12 rec TD, 6 rush yds, 0 rush TD)

• ’25 CHI: DJ Moore, WR33 (145 pts, 682 rec yds, 6 rec TD, 79 rush yds, 1 rush TD)

One thing that’s a burden of C. Williams game is his accuracy and as a result, his WR’s suffer. At a 58% completion rate, Williams had the worst of any QB this season with at least 250 passing attempts (D. Maye had the best at 72%). This lack of accuracy prevents the consistency needed at the WR position and I believe will handcuff any Bears wideout ever getting to St. Brown territory. When it comes to CHI’s passing game, it may end up being one you want exposure to via C. Williams than anyone else.

Tight End

• ’22 DET: B. Wright, TE38 (55 pts, 216 rec yds, 4 rec TD)

• ’23 DET: S. LaPorta, TE1 (196 pts, 889 rec yds, 10 rec TD)

• ’24 DET: S. LaPorta, TE7 (145 pts, 726 rec yds, 7 rec TD)

• ’25 CHI: C. Loveland, TE11 (139 pts, 713 rec yds, 6 rec TD)

Loveland made our Draft Guide this season under the idea that he’d operate at a level similar to LaPorta and one who you could get dirt cheap. I still believe this to be in the cards which is why he’ll likely make next year’s Draft Guide too. Get this, over the first half the season, Loveland was TE25. Over the second half, he was TE5. That’s more like it! This was undoubtedly driven by his target share going bazerk. In the first half it was 10%. In the second half it doubled to 20%. That’s more like it (x2)!!

By the way, I can’t be the only one to think there’s a bit of resemblance between Ben Johnson and Kirk Cousins. Minus the chains, of course. Johnson and Kirk come from a breed that gives off “dad vibes,” but when the testosterone gets going, they become a person you never thought they could be (in the most welcoming way). I personally like to see people let loose like this. It’s a reminder they’re not robots. Or have a personality that distances them from the commander in chief that’s demanded of them on the football field, whatever you choose.

Source: Instagram (backfields)

9

	Team	Coach Record	Old Coach	New Coach
AFC	LV	3 - 14 (.180)	Pete Carroll	Open
	MIA	35 - 33 (.515)	Mike McDaniel	Open
	CLE	46 - 58 (.440)	Kevin Stefanski	Open
	PIT	201 - 125 - 2 (.616)	Mike Tomlin	Open
	BAL	193 - 124 (.610)	John Harbaugh	Open
	TEN	4 - 19 (.170)	Brian Callahan	Open
NFC	ARI	15 - 36 (.290)	Jon Gannon	Open
	ATL	16 - 18 (.470)	Raheem Morris	Open
	NYG	21 - 41 - 1 (.340)	Brian Daboll	Open

When you think about it, it’s a bit crazy that Z. Taylor was the only one to make it out alive in the AFC North. Will he in ’26?