Issue #242: No Looking Back
By Derrick Ernst
January 11, 2026
And then there were eight:
Team | Coach Record | Old Coach | New Coach | |
AFC | LV | 3 - 14 (.180) | Pete Carroll | Open |
MIA | 35 - 33 (.515) | Mike McDaniel | Open | |
CLE | 46 - 58 (.440) | Kevin Stefanski | Open | |
BAL | 193 - 124 (.610) | John Harbaugh | Open | |
TEN | 4 - 19 (.170) | Brian Callahan | Open | |
NFC | ARI | 15 - 36 (.290) | Jon Gannon | Open |
ATL | 16 - 18 (.470) | Raheem Morris | Open | |
NYG | 21 - 41 - 1 (.340) | Brian Daboll | Open |
I’ll keep this table going for as long as there are more dominos to fall. With as much as the media likes to rip on McDaniel, you would’ve thought his record in MIA was abysmal. I know it’s not by much, but he’s on the side of .500 everyone strives for.
Miami Dolphins
QB: 29th | RB: 6th | WR: 25th | TE: 20th
’26 Hot Take: Both Tua and T. Hill won’t be on the team at the start of the season.
The more this list takes shape (my guess is we’ll see one more coach let go) the more I find myself leaning into the notion that not everyone is made out to be a head coach. McDaniel is a perfect example. I think he’ll find himself in a different role at some point in time, but as OC. Brian Daboll feels more suited for OC than HC too. (By the way, both McDaniel and Daboll were OC’s before becoming HC’s).
When it comes to defensive specialists, Jonathan Gannon and Raheem Morris fit the bill and are probably better served as DC’s (they both have prior experience in the role). I was just reminded that this was Morris’ second stint as HC (he was the Bucs HC from 2009-11). Few coaches have the opportunity to be HC on 3+ teams. I don’t think Morris will be one of those, but there’s steam picking up that this guy might be:
On the flip side of all of this are those who were born to be a head coach — where assuming another role isn’t in the equation for one reason or another. John Harbaugh and Kevin Stefanski are prime examples. Pete Carroll is too, but I think we’re probably all in agreement that his time as a NFL coach has come to an end. I think most of us agree too that Harbaugh and Stefanski will be HC for a different team in ’26.
When you think of it, HC hires these days are kind of like taking a swing at drafting a young QB. Like a rookie contract, they have a handful of years to prove their worth. If there hasn't been significant strides made, teams move on. I like to think about half of the league’s QBs are franchise worthy. Same can probably be said for HC’s, certainly when the annual turnover rate is 20%+.
Anyways, it’ll be exciting to see how these open coaching positions fill out. Understanding offensive tendencies (run vs. pass) begin at the coach level. Even though the team/players are new to them, their underlying play-calling tends to stick with them to a fairly predictable degree. This in and of itself lays the groundwork for identifying opportunistic players for fantasy others may be overlooking.
Green
Source: Fantasy Footballers
You guys have probably noticed over the years that I have a few go-to sources I like leaning into more than others, Fantasy Footballers being one of them. Their site does a good job visually depicting a player’s fantasy performance. Their use of green means the player was starting caliber for that week. For RB’s and WR’s, that means they finished within the top-24 at their position.
Any guesses as to who the above screenshot represents (weeks 12 and 18 not shown due to being on bye and inactive, respectively)? A few hints:
He finished as RB6 (half point PPR)
He caught 67 passes (6th amongst RB’s)
He was the only skilled position player to have played in as many games as he did to accomplish the feat
He was on a team who recently relieved their HC of their duties
This is none other than D. Achane. What a season. The path his short career has taken thus far reminds me a lot of the trajectory of A. Kamara’s. Obviously, similar style of play, but we saw almost identical consistency with Kamara that makes the comparison too good to pass up. If this proves to be the case, Achane is one to continually buy in on.
Top Dogs
Earlier in the season as we were going through the exercise of identifying characteristics of what makes a top fantasy asset, I had the thought of at what point in the season the eventual QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1, etc. took over and remained such. With limited room left, this may have the makings of spanning into Thursday’s issue if looking into prior seasons is warranted (it probably is). Let’s see what results of this.
Quarterback
QB1: Josh Allen, BUF (365 half PPR pts)
Week assumed: 11 (spent final 8 as QB1)
Avg weekly points before QB1: 22.7
Avg weekly points after QB1: 22.9
Running Back
RB1: CMC, SF (366 half PPR pts)
Week assumed: 16 (spent final 3 as RB1)
Avg weekly points before RB1: 21.5
Avg weekly points after RB1: 21.5
Wide Receiver
WR1: Puka Nacua, LAR (311 half PPR pts)
Week assumed: 18
Avg weekly points before WR1: 19.4
Avg weekly points after WR1: n/a
This was just too good not to point out. JSN became WR1 in week 7 and remained such through week 17. Heading into the final week of the season, JSN and Puka were neck and neck in season long scoring. It was in the final week that Puka outscored JSN 21 points to 11 that gave him the WR1 title.
Tight End
TE1: Trey McBride, ARI (253 half PPR pts)
Week assumed: 10 (spent final 9 as TE1)
Avg weekly points before TE1: 12.9
Avg weekly points after TE1: 16.6
At the end of the day, I’m not sure this will tell us much other than which positions had intriguing battles, but there’s enough intrigue for me to explore if QB1’s and TE1’s consistently become such earlier than RB1’s and WR1’s. More to come Thursday.
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