Issue #241: You Talking To Me?
By Derrick Ernst
January 08, 2026
Black Monday
We’re not completed in the offseason yet, but for fantasy purposes, we are. Depending on how we fared, we’re either:
Wanting to relish in the season’s glory as long as possible, or
Already begin planning for the next
I’m about 50/50. I’m still a bit frustrated with how abrupt my season ended with my primary league. I had a team that could win and yet I ran into a team that had their best week of the season. Half of fantasy is luck, which can come in many different forms. 50% of the time it works for you. 50% of the time it doesn’t. We can only hope that when it’s the latter, it’s happening towards the front- than tail-end of the season.
I don’t have any scientific evidence to support this whole “50% of fantasy is luck” thing, but it feels right. Frankly, it could actually be more than 50%. Luck is one of those things that can’t necessarily be tracked/tested. We’ve talked about luck in TDF before. In its most simplistic sense, luck tends to find those who put in the work. Think of it as being rewarded for your efforts. Luck isn’t something that replaces effort. The two go hand in hand — a common misconception. So you tell me, it probably is more than 50%, isn’t it?
By the way, the guy I lost to in the 1st round of playoffs went on to win the championship. How do you take these kind of outcomes?
Are you somewhat satisfied/at ease knowing your season ended to your league’s eventual champ?
Are you upset knowing that if you had won, there was a path to victory that could’ve been yours for the taking?
Other?
I used to be more the of Option A kind, but over time, I’ve become more of Option B, especially this season. Moving on to the main event before I begin to realize we’re running out of space. Let’s recap all the HC coaching moves so far this week:
Team | Coach Record | Old Coach | New Coach | |
AFC | LV | 3 - 14 (.180) | Pete Carroll | Open |
CLE | 46 - 58 (.440) | Kevin Stefanski | Open | |
BAL | 193 - 124 (.610) | John Harbaugh | Open | |
TEN | 4 - 19 (.170) | Brian Callahan | Open | |
NFC | ARI | 15 - 36 (.290) | Jon Gannon | Open |
ATL | 16 - 18 (.470) | Raheem Morris | Open | |
NYG | 21 - 41 - 1 (.340) | Brian Daboll | Open |
That John Harbaugh news was a dream, right? I would’ve thought L. Jackson was traded before Harbaugh was let go. I would’ve thought he was a BAL lifer. There are only 17 coaches in NFL history who have coached more regular season games. Of those select few, he ranks 9th all time in regular season winning percentage. Not every day a coach like Harbaugh becomes available. Kind of reminds me of Andy Reid’s situation when his time in PHI came to an end. I wouldn’t write off the possibility of Harbaugh’s second act being more successful than his first. I mean, it sounds like he has plenty of suitors:
I wanted to dive a bit into how these teams fared in the fantasy ranks by skilled position. I’m guessing they won’t be so bright which to me presents opportunity. When you’re at the bottom, the only way to go is up. Depending on who these teams hire, the value proposition for players on these teams may be worth leaning into as well.
Las Vegas Raiders
QB: 30th | RB: 31st | WR: 31st | TE: 6th
’26 Hot Take: Nobody will want to touch A. Jeanty with a 10-foot pole. It’ll be the perfect opportunity to swoop in and capture a RB with top-3 potential.
Cleveland Browns
QB: 31th | RB: 25th | WR: 32nd | TE: 7th
’26 Hot Take: I think S. Sanders will be a hot name that many fantasy “experts” will call their sleeper. I think another CLE player will prove to be better suited with that classification, Q. Judkins.
Baltimore Ravens
QB: 22nd | RB: 5th | WR: 26th | TE: 12th
’26 Hot Take: D. Henry’s run at fantasy dominance has ended. A steep drop-off in production may be imminent.
Tennessee Titans
QB: 32nd | RB: 30th | WR: 27th | TE: 18th
’26 Hot Take: I’m not sure what TEN can do to right the ship, so my recommendation will be the same as it was in ’25: stay away.
Arizona Cardinals
QB: 11th | RB: 27th | WR: 20th | TE: 1st
’26 Hot Take: J. Brissett will be a top-12 QB yet will go undrafted in most leagues simply due to his name.
Atlanta Falcons
QB: 27th | RB: 3rd | WR: 29th | TE: 16th
’26 Hot Take: B. Robinson will be the #1 overall ranked player (by way of ADP) in all draft formats.
New York Giants
QB: 7th | RB: 14th | WR: 22nd | TE: 22nd
’26 Hot Take: You guys already know my J. Dart takes. Imagine what he’ll do with M. Nabers at his disposal.
Honorable Mention
’26 Hot Take: Taylor will be on the hot seat more than any other HC. It’ll take a division title and probably a run to the AFC Championship for him to make a return to CIN in ’27.
One more thing, while 7 (for now) HC openings may seem high, it’s middle of the road when compared with the previous four seasons:
’24 season: 8 openings
’23 season: 5 openings
’22 season: 10(!) openings
’21 season: 7 openings
That’s a total of 37 openings or 7.4 per year over the last five years. If we call it a rounded seven on average, you’re looking at a roughly 20% annual turnover rate for NFL head coaches since the turn of the decade.
300
1,000 yards. Double-digit TDs. 100+ receptions. When it comes to stats, big, round numbers are psychological thresholds that sit at the forefront of everyone’s mind. The aforementioned seem to be when you’re talking RBs and WRs.
But what about fantasy stats? When you’ve been playing as long as I have, you begin to realize there’s a similar “big, round” number that has loads of significance. For RBs and WRs, it’s 300 points (half point PPR). You know how it is. It’s a number that’s obtainable, yet impressive and that very few actually achieve. It’s a mark that separates a great season from a good one. Let’s take a look at who hit that mark this season (stats courtesy of FFToday).
This threshold is also a good representation of why I favor high-end RBs over WRs. Year-over-year, we consistently see more RBs hitting this mark. This year it was 4 to 2. Last year it was 4 to 1.
’23 season: 1 to 2
’22 season: 3 to 1
’21 season: 2 to 1
It’s not a bulletproof revelation, but 14 to 7 over the past five seasons is lopsided enough to make a case. I don’t think this trend is going away any time soon.
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