Issue #239: Happy New Year!

By Derrick Ernst

January 01, 2026

Disproportionate

I wouldn’t blame you if it’s not until Friday (or the weekend) until you read this. Means you had a good time ringing in the New Year, I hope. I had a subscriber (who’s also a co-worker) suggest an issue topic a few weeks ago that I figured we could go through today with just one week left in the season. We were talking about the season D. Adams was having when the lightbulb went off, does he have the most TDs for a receiver with the least amount of yards? Said another way, who has the lowest receiving yards to TD ratio (scoring the most with the least number of yards). As to eliminate the noise, I’ve only included players with 5+ TDs in my analysis.

Nothing like kicking off the New Year with a deep dive, but I like to think they’ve always been near the heart of TDF no matter how much I’ve leaned into more psychological aspects over time. Here are the top-15 players with the lowest YDS:TD ratio (pulled on Friday, December 26):

1. T. Horton, SEA (32:1) / 161 yds to 5 TD

2. I. TeSlaa, DET (37:1) / 221 yds to 6 TD

3. T. Etienne, JAX (45:1) / 270 yds to 6 TD

4. D. Waller, MIA (47:1) / 283 yds to 6 TD

5. C. Parkinson, LAR (53:1) / 319 yd to 6 TD

6. D. Adams, LAR (56:1) / 789 yds to 14 TD

7. T. Johnson, TB (57:1) / 286 yds to 5 TD

8. D. Goedert, PHI (58:1) / 583 yd to 10 TD

9. A. Jeanty, LV (65:1) / 326 yds to 5 TD

10. RJ Harvey, DEN (70:1) / 351 yds to 5 TD

11. J. Jennings, SF (71:1) / 566 yds to 8 TD

12. T. Higgins, CIN (72:1) / 720 yds to 10 TD

13. J. Ferguson, DAL (74:1) / 595 yd to 8 TD

14. M. Andrews, BAL (76:1) / 380 yd to 5 TD

15. Q. Johnston, LAC (80:1) / 637 yd to 8 TD

Seven WRs (blue), five TEs (green), and three RBs (orange). I was actually expecting TEs and RBs to outweigh WRs given their roles but my guess is that there are outliers every year that makes something like this favor WRs. It’s the likes of T. Horton (who?), I. TeSlaa, and T. Johnson that rub me the wrong way when it comes to fantasy. Their involvement takes away from the difference-makers (no offense). Outside of injury replacements, they’re noise (again, no offense). It also takes away from the output you’re expecting when you draft the guys they’re taking touches from.

I hate to be the one to say it (and perhaps I’ve said it before), fantasy is a very selfish game. You want your guys to be the one’s that shine most. It’s not wrong to think that, it just means you’re not the biggest fan of everyone winning. At the end of the season, only one team gets to sit atop the pile. I’m all for everyone getting their shot, but selfishly, I’d prefer their “shot” be less of an impact than what we’re seeing here.

As I was compiling this list, the thought that came to mind was what percentage of these player’s fantasy output was tied to TDs. For some of these guys, it’s quite significant (half point PPR format; excluding RBs):

1. T. Horton, SEA (57%) / 30 TD pts

2. I. TeSlaa, DET (55%) / 36 TD pts

3. T. Etienne, JAX

4. D. Waller, MIA (47%) / 36 TD pts

5. C. Parkinson, LAR (43%) / 36 TD pts

6. D. Adams, LAR (44%) / 84 TD pts

7. T. Johnson, TB (42%) / 30 TD pts

8. D. Goedert, PHI (41%) / 60 TD pts

9. A. Jeanty, LV

10. RJ Harvey, DEN

11. J. Jennings, SF (37%) / 48 TD pts

12. T. Higgins, CIN (38%) / 60 TD pts

13. J. Ferguson, DAL (32%) / 48 TD pts

14. M. Andrews, BAL (34%) / 30 TD pts

15. Q. Johnston, LAC (36%) / 48 TD pts

The share of TD fantasy points for WRs and TEs for this grouping is almost identical:

• WR: 42% share of fantasy pts tied to TDs

• TE: 39% share of fantasy pts tied to TDs

If I had to guess, if you ran this across the spectrum of all WR’s and all TE’s, that share for WRs would decline, but remain relatively steady for TEs. Makes sense when you think about the nature of the positions (stretching the field vs. working the middle).

With anything, there are always outliers, and despite having a coming out party with TDs this season, it has been receptions that have propelled T. McBride to a league of his own (passing 116 reps from Z. Ertz set in ’18):

Source: Instagram (NFL)

While I think we can all appreciate the weight this number alone carries, it’s hard to conceptualize it against the rest of the league. Let this sink in:

Source: Statmuse

The most receptions by TE’s over the last two seasons. It’s not the fact that McBride is 54 receptions clear of 2nd place Bowers, rather he’s 100 receptions clear of 5th place Schultz. That is staggering! That’s a full season’s worth!

It wasn’t too long ago that T. Kelce and M. Andrews were drawing R1 draft capital. I’m calling it right now that T. McBride will next season. I’m usually against this, even if you’re in a league that requires you to draft a TE, but given his performance in back-to-back seasons, a trend is now intact. With one game left this season, McBride has 252 half PPR fantasy points. That would be good for:

• WR6, but is just 8 points shy of being WR3

• RB8, clear of current RB8, C. Brown by 12 points

With J. Brissett under center, no other team has passed the ball more than ARI. If Murray gets the boot and Brissett is their guy (at least for ’26), there’s a bit of a safety net in drafting McBride knowing a relationship (and trust) has already been established.

Light Reading

If you’re anything like me, outside of the holidays, this time of year brings about plenty of downtime. If you’re in the mood for some extra reading, I came across a few articles that you may find interesting. Enjoy!

1. Myles Garrett among best NFL players to play on bad teams

2. Best NFL players at 109 different skills: Top QBs, WRs, CBs

3. Army-Navy: Inside the many traditions of America's Game

Here’s to a memorable 2026!