Issue #235: Gut Feelings
By Derrick Ernst
December 18, 2025
First Instincts
Well, I’m going to get it out of the way. I’ve been eliminated from the playoffs in my one league I care about most. 144-132. I need to go back week by week and check, but I probably had five losses this year to the high-points getter for the week. I’m not exaggerating either. This past week was no different. 144 was the high point getter and who came in second? Me. We’ve all been in these scenarios, but it undoubtedly stings more when it happens in the playoffs. And now that it’s over, I feel like Ricky Bobby not knowing what to do with his hands:
Source: YouTube (Scene City)
Get this, my loss could’ve been worse. How much worse? 25 points worse to be exact (according to my league). And to be perfectly honest, I probably would’ve preferred that — less of a sting. My opponent was rostering two QBs (kudos to him being a part of the two QB club!):
Baker Mayfield who scored 19.2 pts
Trevor Lawrence who scored 44.3 pts
Well up until an hour or so before TB kicked off on Thursday night, he had Lawrence locked in as his starter. Unbeknownst to me, it was halftime and I wanted to check in on how other fantasy matchups were shaking out and noticed my opponent had accumulated some points. As it turned out, he switched Lawrence with Baker and man, that would’ve been one of the bigger second-guessing blunders in history had I come back and won.
This is really what I wanted to talk about today: gut instincts and the perils of second guessing. Have you ever wondered why your first choice is the right choice more times than not? There was something about that decision that stuck out for you to go with whatever it is over the other, right? If it’s not a gut instinct, it’s likely that an initial decision is accompanied by a prolonged period of thought where several factors have been taken into account to arrive at a decision. If it’s not prolonged, rather a quick fire reaction, you probably had a previous experience that led you to make a decision in no time.
No matter how you chalk it up, I’m a believer that first decisions supersede secondary decisions simply due to what goes into making them. Going with your second, third, fourth, etc decision usually doesn’t carry the same level of consideration. And if they do, it’s usually time spent realizing that it probably makes sense to go full circle and stick with the first option. I understand this thinking is not consensus, but I’ve been around the block long enough to see this true myself, which I thought was telling enough to share. I hope you found it helpful.
Side note, I’ll likely be keeping these next few issues around the holidays/New Year to two pages. I’m doing some traveling and I think we could all use a mental break from fantasy talk with the season winding down. I hope you don’t mind.
ACL
I believe I’ve said this before, but if I haven’t, let it be known that I’m not someone that finds joy in one getting injured, even if they’re someone I’m not fond of or has an affiliation with someone/something I dislike. To me, it doesn’t feel right and at the end of the day, I think we can all agree that tearing an ACL isn’t an ideal situation to be in whether you’re an athlete or working a 9-5.
I don’t remember a time when multiple of a league’s top athletes went down with major injuries on the same day. This doesn’t make the NFL better. When you eliminate premier talent, the product diminishes. I don’t know about you, but my interest in watching anymore KC football this season is 0%. We all know history repeats itself and this time is no different. Tom Brady tore his ACL in his age 31 season. Mahomes will miss a majority of his age 31 season with a torn ACL. Say what you will, but Brady was a better QB after his injury. I think Mahomes can be the same.
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