Issue #232: Professional Backup
By Derrick Ernst
December 04, 2025
Recap
Let’s close out our Common Characteristics study with a good ol’ fashioned recap of our predictions.
QB: Justin Herbert, LAC (QB8)
RB: Jonathan Taylor, IND (RB1)
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (WR1)
TE: Trey McBride, ARI (TE1)
Their rankings are current as of Tuesday morning. What I will say is that Herbert was the pick I stretched the most with, although he was QB2 at the time of the prediction (week nine). That may have been his nail in the coffin. Since then he has been QB27, although one of those weeks was his bye.
Some other notes: J. Taylor and CMC are virtually tied neck and neck for the RB1 slot. Despite being held to just 3 points on Sunday, JSN still has a 29 point clearance on WR2, G. Pickens. T. McBride is 52 points clear of TE2, T. Kelce who is averaging 11 PPG. If McBride were to get injured and not play in any of the remaining five games, there’s a chance he maintains his hold on the top spot. The streak he has been on since week six is quite something:
Source: Fantasy Footballers
That’s an average of 20 PPG over that stretch. Outside of McBride, there are only six non-QB’s that have averaged 20+ PPG in that same timeframe (and who have played in a minimum of seven games): J. Taylor (25), J. Gibbs (25), CMC (23), D. Achane (23), JSN (22), and B. Robinson (20).
I did promise a section for Kickers today so I wanted to switch gears to see if we could spot a trend or two for them as well.
2024: Brandon Aubrey, DAL
30 for 30 XP (100%)
40 for 47 FG (85%)
150 points accounted for
DAL avg 21 PPG (ranked 21st in NFL)
2023: Brandon Aubrey, DAL
49 for 52 XP (94%)
36 for 38 FG (95%)
157 points accounted for
DAL avg 30 PPG (ranked 1st in NFL)
2022: Justin Tucker, BAL
31 for 32 XP (97%)
37 for 43 FG (86%)
142 points accounted for
BAL avg 21 PPG (ranked 19th in NFL)
2021: Daniel Carlson, LV
30 for 33 XP (91%)
40 for 43 FG (93%)
150 points accounted for
LV avg 22 PPG (ranked 18th in NFL)
2020: Jason Sanders, MIA
36 for 36 XP (100%)
36 for 39 FG (92%)
144 points accounted for
MIA avg 25 PPG (ranked 15th in NFL)
It feels to me that the number to gun for 140-150 points accounted for. If a kicker is on track for that, they have a chance at the top spot. I’m surprised to see that only two teams were in the top half in scoring. Despite this, I’m still sticking to my guns in saying that you want your kicker to be on a team that scores a lot of points. Hear me out.
If points accounted for is the chief kicking metric for fantasy sake, I couldn’t care less about how one gets there. XP’s have a higher conversion rate and in most leagues, you don’t lose points with a miss. Because of this, I want my kicker to have as high of concentration to XP’s as possible. The average number of XP’s amongst these five were in the upper 30’s, which means if 140+ points are to be accounted for, the same number of FG’s (mid- to upper-30’s) is a must. There are 16 kickers currently who have made 25+ XP’s, but only four with 23+ FG’s. Those four are: (1) Jason Mayers, (2) Andy Borregalas, (3) Evan McPherson, and (4) Cameron Dicker. All of these guys are currently in the top-six of kicker rankings. I wouldn’t say the code has completely been cracked, but I like what I see in the track record for 140-150 points accounted for.
The Backup
If you haven’t seen the Progressive “Professional Backup” commercials, go out to YouTube and search for them. There must be about five of them at this point and they’re all brilliant. What gets me is that Progressive somehow convinced active NFL QB’s to have the self awareness to realize they’re of backup caliber to appear in these commercials. I admire one with self awareness, but it might be some of these guys who get the last laugh. Heck, Jacoby Brissett is one of the QB’s featured! He’s earning himself a starting job next season with the way he has been playing.
As to make my point hit home a little bit more than usual, here is a complete list of all 50 (you read that right!) QB’s to have started a game this season (rankings based on PFF):
Matthew Stafford, LAR
Jordan Love, GB
Dak Prescott, DAL
Drake Maye, NE
Joe Burrow, CIN
Sam Darnold, SEA
Jalen Hurts, PHI
Justin Herbert, LAC
Mac Jones, SF
Josh Allen, BUF
Marcus Mariota, WSH
Jayden Daniels, WSH (2)
Jared Goff, DET
Patrick Mahomes, KC
Bo Nix, DEN
Jacoby Brissett, ARI
Trevor Lawrence, JAX
Daniel Jones, IND
Kyler Murray, ARI (2)
Kirk Cousins, ATL
Tyler Shough, NO
Baker Mayfield, TB
Joe Flacco, CLE
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Jameis Winston, NYG
Caleb Williams, CHI
Jaxson Dart, NYG (2)
Davis Mills, HOU
Spencer Rattler, NO (2)
Brock Purdy, SF (2)
Justin Fields, NYJ
CJ Stroud, HOU (2)
Russell Wilson, NYG (3)
Tyler Huntley, BAL
Bryce Young, CAR
Aaron Rodger, PIT
Tyrod Taylor, NYJ (2)
Cooper Rush, BAL (2)
Andy Dalton, CAR (2)
Geno Smith, LV
Lamar Jackson, BAL (3)
Michael Penix Jr., ATL (2)
Cam Ward, TEN
JJ McCarthy, MIN
Jake Browning, CIN (2)
Mason Rudolph, PIT (2)
Carson Wentz, MIN (2)
Dillon Gabriel, CLE (2)
Shedeur Sanders, CLE (3)
Max Brosmer, MIN (3)
There are technically five teams who have started three QB’s (CIN making up the 5th) if you consider J. Flacco has started a game for both CLE and CIN. I knew the number was going to be high, but not half a century high. If this doesn’t speak to the importance of the position, I’m not sure what will. Here are a few questions for you on backups:
Is it worth an NFL team to pay up for one?
Is it worth you paying up for one in fantasy?
Maybe ATL wasn’t all that wrong in paying up for Cousins? Their price was outrageously high in hindsight but the concept wasn’t outlandish.
Ya know, the more I write, the more I want to stay on this topic. Part 2 to come on Sunday!
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