Issue #231: Common Characteristics: Tight Ends
Updated: Jul 4
By Derrick Ernst
November 30, 2025
Previous Top-Five
With taking these one per week and with missing last week there isn’t a whole lot of time left in the season for any predictions to have much substance (ie. Enough time has passed for us to have a high likelihood of identifying a position’s top point-getter, barring injury). I’m thinking this may be the last issue of our CC series. I’ll maybe do a section on Kickers next week (I don’t think they warrant an entire issue). D/ST is a completely different beast. As I’ve always said, as long as your fluid with which D/ST you roster, you keep yourself in contention. In doing so, if you’re lucky to land a top D/ST and have the foresight to recognize the talent you have (I’m talking teams like SEA, HOU, and DEN this season), holding onto them means you have a “set them and forget them” kind of weapon.
Let’s get into how TE’s have shaken out these past few seasons.
2024
Brock Bowers, LV
Player Stats: 17 GP, 153 Tgts, 112 Recp, 1,194 Rec Yds, 5 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 4-13 Record, 18 PPG, 322 YPG, 1,065 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 29:20
Fantasy Stats: 207 total points, 12 PPG, 11 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 25 (x2)
Other: 1st year in league, Age 22
2023
Sam LaPorta, DET
Player Stats: 17 GP, 120 Tgts, 86 Recp, 889 Rec Yds, 10 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 12-5 Record, 27 PPG, 407 YPG, 1,137 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 31:21
Fantasy Stats: 196 total points, 12 PPG, 11 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 26
Other: 1st year in league, Age 22
2022
Travis Kelce, KC
Player Stats: 17 GP, 152 Tgts, 110 Recp, 1,338 Rec Yds, 12 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 14-3 Record, 29 PPG, 425 YPG, 1,094 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 30:18
Fantasy Stats: 261 total points, 15 PPG, 13 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 33
Other: 10th year in league, Age 33
2021
Mark Andrews, BAL
Player Stats: 17 GP, 154 Tgts, 107 Recp, 1,361 Rec Yds, 9 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 8-9 Record, 23 PPG, 397 YPG, 1,185 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 33:16
Fantasy Stats: 248 total points, 15 PPG, 12 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 36
Other: 4th year in league, Age 26
2020
Travis Kelce, KC
Player Stats: 15 GP, 145 Tgts, 105 Recp, 1,416 Rec Yds, 11 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 14-2 Record, 30 PPG, 425 YPG, 1,057 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 30:31
Fantasy Stats: 260 total points, 17 PPG, 14 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 24 (x2)
Other: 8th year in league, Age 31
One thing I’d like to reiterate is the number of points scored by the top-TE’s each season. In the case of the last five, TE1’s have averaged 234 a season. For context, RB1’s over that same stretch have averaged 347 a season and WR1’s have averaged 330. QB1’s are even more. Nevertheless, TE1’s have the lowest upside of all the skilled positions. This isn’t anything new which is why I think looking at it another way is warranted.
On average, I’d say ADP usually has a season’s TE1 ranked late-R2/early-R3. This usually means they’re mixed in with the RB12’s and WR12’s. Over the past five seasons they’ve averaged 200-210 fantasy points per season. A couple thoughts:
Yes, this does mean there’s implicit value in drafting a top-ranked TE over a 12th ranked RB or WR
The trouble is identifying who the top-TE will be and whether it’s worth drafting them as TE1. My guess is T. Kelce was worth the TE1 pick in ’22 and ’20, but I doubt the others were in their respective season
Drafting a RB12 or WR12 means there’s upside — they have the room to be better than where they were drafted. Drafting a TE1 means any finish worse than the best is a loss
Collectively, unless there’s a really clear line of sight, this is why I favor staying away from drafting TE’s early. This may be changing in years to come given who we’re about to highlight for a prediction, but there’s a lot of truth in saying the margin of error for a position’s top-ranked player by way of ADP is virtually zero. This isn’t talked about enough.
Prediction
Similarities first:
150 targets and 100 receptions were thresholds consistently achieved
Outside of Bowers, 10+ TD’s are nice to have (not necessarily a must)
Outside of Kelce, younger TE’s tend to finish atop the ranks
I wish I had a way of collecting this metric but my guess is that each of these guys had a target share in the upper-20’s or even saw the 30’s
My vote for 2025’s TE1 is Trey McBride, ARI. He’s currently on pace for 168 targets, 124 receptions, and 11 TD’s. This is his 4th year in the league and is 26 years old. The reason I brought up target share is because ARI targets TE’s more than any team in the NFL and McBride’s target share is 27%, the highest of any TE too. McBride is starting to cement himself as the NFL’s premier TE. After a TE3 performance last year, he currently has a 47 point lead on TE2, T. Kelce through 12 games this season. And he seems to have gotten over the TD hump, which means sky’s the limit.
Prediction x2
My hot take the other day about the future of Thanksgiving spreads may very well be evolving right before our eyes. I came across this post the other day. I would be 100% all-in. I hope you all had a great turkey day!
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