Issue #229: Common Characteristics: Wide Receivers
Updated: Jul 4
By Derrick Ernst
November 20, 2025
Previous Top-Five
You guys know the deal, WRs today. Let’s recap my predictions for top positional fantasy players so far:
QB: Justin Herbert, LAC
RB: Jonathan Taylor, IND
I tell you what, if age 27 shows up more than usual for WRs, I implore you all to tell the entire fantasy community something they’ve overlooked forever. The reason why I’m not ruling out the possibility of 27 making appearances today is because I was a bit surprised to see that high of age be as consistent as it was for RBs. If it can be at that level for RBs, it can certainly be for WRs. Let’s dive in.
2024
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
Player Stats: 17 GP, 175 Tgts, 127 Recp, 1,708 Rec Yds, 17 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 9-8 Record, 28 PPG, 382 YPG, 1,080 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 31:02
Fantasy Stats: 340 total points, 20 PPG, 8 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 53
Other: 4th year in league, Age 24, 8th in MPV voting
2023
CeeDee Lamb, DAL
Player Stats: 17 GP, 181 Tgts, 135 Recp, 1,749 Rec Yds, 12 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 12-5 Record, 30 PPG, 387 YPG, 1,122 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 31:47
Fantasy Stats: 336 total points, 20 PPG, 10 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 35
Other: 4th year in league, Age 24, n/a in MPV voting
2022
Justin Jefferson, MIN
Player Stats: 17 GP, 184 Tgts, 128 Recp, 1,809 Rec Yds, 8 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 13-4 Record, 25 PPG, 381 YPG, 1,123 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 30:00
Fantasy Stats: 305 total points, 18 PPG, 9 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 35
Other: 3rd year in league, Age 23, 5th in MPV voting
2021
Cooper Kupp, LAR
Player Stats: 17 GP, 191 Tgts, 145 Recp, 1,947 Rec Yds, 16 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 12-5 Record, 27 PPG, 387 YPG, 1,058 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 29:03
Fantasy Stats: 367 total points, 22 PPG, 14 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 33
Other: 5th year in league, Age 28, 3rd in MPV voting
2020
Davante Adams, GB
Player Stats: 14 GP, 148 Tgts, 115 Recp, 1,374 Rec Yds, 18 Rec TDs
Team Stats: 13-3 Record, 32 PPG, 401 YPG, 990 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 32:34
Fantasy Stats: 301 total points, 22 PPG, 8 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 38 (x2)
Other: 7th year in league, Age 28, n/a in MPV voting
Go figure, no age 27’s. But there were a few 24’s and 28’s! Again, this is the second position in a row with no repeats. That’s pretty impressive. Truly goes to show the difficulty of going back-to-back, let alone repeating over the course of a half decade.
Prediction
I hate to say it, but much like with RB, my prediction for WR isn’t going to be breaking news either. Like Jonathan Taylor has a sizable lead on the competition (in terms of fantasy points), so does my WR1. Before we get to that, what are the similarities:
175+ targets almost feels like a must
I’d imagine this would be good for league-leading which also means being the league leader (or close to it) in receptions and receiving yards comes with the territory
Double-digit TDs is a requirement
WR1’s score 300+ fantasy points 100% of the time (at least with this sample size)
Outside of Chase, having a week scoring in the high-30’s is necessary
Like with RB’s, these seasons don’t seem to matter in the MVP ranks which is truly absurd
Drum roll…My vote for 2025’s WR1 is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA. He averages 10 tgts/game which would put him right in line with these five. He leads the league in receiving yards (which I’d argue carries more weight than TDs) and fantasy points YTD. Regarding the latter, he currently has a 32 point lead on WR2, G. Pickens and a 37 point lead on WR3, J. Chase. The more the season progresses, the more it becomes harder to fill in that gap.
It would be interesting to see at what point in the season each of these players took over as WR1 and held onto it for the rest of the season. That could certainly go a long way with these predictions. Perhaps I’ll explore that in supplementary fashion when this series is all said and done.
You’ll need to zoom in a bit to see that far right column, but it’s no surprise that those who top the league in targets/target share, also top the fantasy ranks:
JSN = WR1
J. Chase = WR3
D. London = WR5
A. St. Brown = WR6
J. Jefferson = WR16
Example (enter number here) as to why I’m so passionate about targets (and attempts) being the most important stats in fantasy.
Like Fine Wine
Source: Fantasy Footballers
Excluding Kelce, the average age of the top-five TEs is 25 years old. Of the top-ten is 26. I don’t want to say I told you so, but, I told you so. Kelce leads KC in literally every receiving category (tied for team lead in receiving TDs) and while his leads will inevitably dwindle with R. Rice back, part of our reasoning to go in on Kelce in the preseason was due to Rice’s suspension. It has played out pretty much perfectly.
By the way, Kelce has never finished worse than TE8 in a season in his entire career. Over the last five seasons, TE8 averaged 134 points. He could reach that mark by the end of this weekend. No matter how you chalk it up, as much as many want to say he’s washed up, let the record show that Kelce still has some life left in him.
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