Issue #225: Common Characteristics: Quarterbacks
Updated: Jul 4
By Derrick Ernst
November 06, 2025
Laying The Land
So what’s the deal with this new series? I was thinking the other day, have you ever thought about what similarities the top fantasy players have? And I’m not just talking about the top-five or top-ten of a given season, rather the best of the best year-after-year. What does it take to be the top at a position? That’s the code I want to try to crack — assuming it’s possible.
I don’t like to shove stats and numbers down your throat, but this exercise may be an exception. We’ll see. So that’s that. I just hope it yields a concrete answer or two. This is one of those pursuits that will take a good amount of time researching and if the end result is alphabet soup, I’ll feel as if it was for no good. When I say that I do zero investigative work before exploring topics like these, this series will embody that more than ever.
Previous Top-Five
Let’s dissect what stood out amongst the QB1’s of the last five years.
2024
Lamar Jackson, BAL
Player Stats: 17 GP, 474 Pass Att, 67% Comp, 4,172 Pass Yds, 41 Pass TDs, 4 INT, 915 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs
Team Stats: 12-5 Record, 31 PPG, 434 YPG, 1,055 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 31:09
Fantasy Stats: 430 total points, 25 PPG, 16 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 36 (x2)
Other: 7th year in league, Age 27, 2nd in MPV voting
Speaking of 2nd in MVP voting, I kind of forgot just how close things were last year:
Also, did you know that the NFL changed its MVP voting methodology in 2022? I didn’t. Before then, voters could only name one player on their ballot. Now, th0y vote on a “ranked-choice” system where five players are selected and ranked one through five with points assigned to them (10-5-3-2-1). Either way, Lamar took 2nd under each methodology last season, but somehow losing by 26 with the ranked-choice system feels closer than losing by five with one-player voting.
2023
Josh Allen, BUF
Player Stats: 17 GP, 579 Pass Att, 67% Comp, 4,306 Pass Yds, 29 Pass TDs, 18 INT, 524 Rush Yds, 15 Rush TDs
Team Stats: 11-6 Record, 27 PPG, 383 YPG, 1,115 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 32:01
Fantasy Stats: 393 total points, 23 PPG, 13 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 40
Other: 6th year in league, Age 27, 5th in MPV voting
2022
Patrick Mahomes, KC
Player Stats: 17 GP, 648 Pass Att, 67% Comp, 5,250 Pass Yds, 41 Pass TDs, 12 INT, 358 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs
Team Stats: 14-3 Record, 29 PPG, 425 YPG, 1,094 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 30:18
Fantasy Stats: 416 total points, 25 PPG, 15 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 35
Other: 6th year in league, Age 27, 1st in MPV voting
2021
Josh Allen, BUF
Player Stats: 17 GP, 646 Pass Att, 63% Comp, 4,407 Pass Yds, 36 Pass TDs, 15 INT, 763 Rush Yds, 6 Rush TDs
Team Stats: 11-6 Record, 28 PPG, 392 YPG, 1,143 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 31:42
Fantasy Stats: 403 total points, 24 PPG, 11 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 37
Other: 4th year in league, Age 25, n/a in MPV voting
2020
Josh Allen, BUF
Player Stats: 16 GP, 572 Pass Att, 69% Comp, 4,544 Pass Yds, 37 Pass TDs, 10 INT, 421 Rush Yds, 8 Rush TDs
Team Stats: 13-3 Record, 31 PPG, 407 YPG, 1,034 Offensive plays, Time of possession = 31:45
Fantasy Stats: 393 total points, 25 PPG, 10 top-12 finishes, Most points scored in a week = 38
Other: 3rd year in league, Age 24, 2nd in MPV voting
Prediction
Source: Fantasy Footballers
What does it take to be QB1? Have Josh Allen as your name. I’m kidding, but only partly. It’s pretty incredible what he has been able to do. Let’s look at some similarities across the last five QB1’s:
All have played in 16+ games, passed for 4,000+ yards, and had over 40 total TDs
Age 27 was an eerily magic number
All played on teams that had a winning record, ran over 1,000 offensive plays, and had their offense on the field over half the game (30:00+)
All averaged 23-25 fantasy PPG and had a week in which they scored in the upper-30’s
So where does this leave us? Who fits the bill? Actually, the answer is quite easy it’s almost too perfect.
This guy is 27 years old. Is 2nd in the league in passing yards. Is averaging 23 fantasy PPG. Is on pace for 36 TDs. Plays on a team with a winning record and on an offense who possess the ball 33:00 minutes a game. Any guesses?
My prediction for 2025’s QB1 is Justin Herbert, LAC. An underlying hope as we go through this study is that they yield players who made our Draft Guide. That way there’s hope some of you have exposure to them. We’re officially 1 for 1.
Floppy Ears
It has been awhile since I last gave a mascot update. Cooper turned 3 years old two months ago — I think his ears grew more than anything else! As he ages, his ears do seem to get the dirtiest more than any other body part. I would’ve never guessed. My wife does an exceptional job keeping them clean. It’s a pain to get him to keep still, but the other day she did it with such precision and care that he didn’t mind one bit. TBD on if that was a one off or his age is starting to show. Here’s to wrapping up the week well!
Comments