Issue #224: Dog Days

By Derrick Ernst

November 02, 2025

Lull

I hope you all had a memorable Halloween! For a few of you, my guess is that you enjoyed that more than you’ll enjoy spending any mental energy on fantasy today. It’s about that time of the season — the dog days of fantasy. You all know what I’m talking about. The buzz from waiting another year to play fantasy has worn off and you’re just realizing that we have another month-plus before things get real with fantasy playoffs. News flash, it’s the moves you’re making now that will determine if you even have a roster to construct come playoffs. And that right there, my friends, is the determining factor. Those who persist, win. Those who abandon ship, lose. With anything, there are exceptions, but you get what I’m saying.

There’s this marketing concept called, the Gartner Hype Cycle that oddly enough, describes the fantasy season well. There are five components to the cycle:

1. Technology trigger (start of cycle)

2. Expectations peak

3. Trough of disillusionment

4. Slope of enlightenment

5. Productivity plateau (end of cycle)

Source: Forbes

Let’s translate these in terms of fantasy:

1. Preseason: It’s August, you’re excited for the season and you begin fantasy preparations

2. Weeks 1-6: You’re optimistic about the team you’ve drafted and the thrill of setting a fantasy lineup each week hasn’t wore off

3. Weeks 7-10: The dog days of fantasy. The luster of fantasy has wore off, it starts feeling more like a job, and if things aren’t going your way, you’re ready to throw in the towel

4. Weeks 11-14: You’ve gotten through the lull and there’s still hope! Your enthusiasm is back & that feeling you had at the start of the season has returned

5. Playoffs: Your team is what it is. It has gotten you this far and you’re ready to ride or die with it to season’s end

There’s no hope without doing your part when the going gets tough. I’ve been on record a few times in saying that fantasy is a grind. If it was easy everyone would do it. The truth is, it is a grind and only those with the will to win do. It may sound cheesy, but fantasy is as much of a game of longevity as it is luck/skill. Don’t believe me? Grind it out these next few weeks and see just how much you’re able to distance yourself from the rest.

Waste Pick

I got a haircut the other day and we got on the topic of fantasy — classic male barber shop talk. I love small talk like this because it allows me to see how others think about things. I didn’t show my hand in telling him that I’m in the newsletter space, but I was investigative in asking some hard-hitting questions. We talked about his team, of course, and what players he regretted drafting. He said something that I had never heard before. Instead of “regretting” these players, he considered them as being “waste picks.” Who was a player he deemed as a waste pick? Chase Brown. He’s come on a bit over these past few weeks, but I understand why he’d say that given his play to begin the season. His argument is that his R3 pick could’ve been spent on someone else. Everything is 20/20 in hindsight. I suppose you don’t know if something is a “waste” until you see it threw. He’s currently RB20. Based on ADP, RB20 was drafted in R5 in most of our leagues. Everyone’e definition of a waste is different, but for me a two round difference doesn’t constitute as one. Thoughts? Who’s your waste pick YTD?

New Series

It has been awhile since we’ve done a series that has spanned multiple issues. That changes come Thursday. I’m a sucker for a good alliteration and rather than tell you what I had in mind for this series, I’ll give you a sneak peak to its name: Common Characteristics. More to come on Thursday!