Issue #217: Discovery

By Derrick Ernst

October 09, 2025

Top-12’s

Extra credit if you complete the word find. By the way, do you say “word find” or “word search?” I say more of the former but my guess is that which you say is a reflection of age. I wonder what the kids are saying these days. I wonder if they even do word finds? Anyways, I’m going to assume the majority of subscribers have done a word find or two in their life. Remember the feeling you got when you where stuck on finding a word and suddenly came across it? It was a feeling of satisfaction like nothing else. Kinda like having that player you’ve been keeping an eye on in your draft fall to you at the perfect moment. Satisfaction like nothing else. And the thing about this kind of satisfaction is that you know it’ll likely be coming, you just don’t know when. Kind of a perfect mesh of knowing and unexpected.

Now that we’re through five games, I wanted to see how many of each position’s top-12 players would be characterized as satisfactory finds (ie. Mid- to late-round picks who were overlooked but are vastly outperforming). There have been quite a few top talents underperforming expectations to kick off the season and I’m really hoping this exercise reinforces my belief of drafts being won in the mid-rounds despite most attention from personalities in the fantasy space focusing on draft strategy in just the first few.

Before diving in let’s layout how we’ll be defining ADP groupings:

• Earlier (“E”) = Rounds 1 - 3

• Mid (“M”) = Rounds 4 - 8

• Late (“L”) = Rounds 9 - 12

• Super Late (“SL”) = Rounds 13+

I’m also basing what each player’s ADP was per ESPN’s latest 2025 PPR Top 300 Cheat Sheet. Now let’s dive in.

Quarterback

1. J. Allen, BUF (R3 ADP; “E”)

2. P. Mahomes, KC (R6 ADP; “M”)

3. D. Prescott, DAL (R9 ADP; “L”)

4. B. Mayfield, TB (R6 ADP; “M”)

5. M. Stafford, LAR (R13 ADP; “SL”)

6. J. Hurts, PHI (R3 ADP; “E”)

7. D. Jones, IND (R15+ ADP; “SL”)

8. J. Herbert, LAC (R9 ADP; “L”)

9. D. Maye, NE (R9 ADP; “L”)

10. J. Goff, DET (R12 ADP; “L”)

11. L. Jackson, BAL (R3 ADP; “E”)

12. B. Nix, DEN (R8 ADP; “M”)

Average: R8 ADP; “M”

We’ll see how other positions shake out, but this couldn’t have worked out better for QBs averaging out in the mid-rounds. Then again, there were only a few players who were ranked high enough to even qualify for an “E.” It just so happens too that the top ranked QB in the pre-season is the top ranked QB through five weeks (we saw this coming). One of the things I hope this helps prove is that you need to be smart about when to draft certain positions, especially onesies. There are cases to be made for any player as to whether their draft ranking is warranted. J. Allen is an exception to the rule in that all QBs are created equal. In totality, striking a mid-round QB has put you in position of contending with the best of them. If that’s you, it should mean you focused on other positions before that. Let’s see if that made sense.

Running Back

1. J. Taylor, IND (R2 ADP; “E”)

2. C. McCaffrey, SF (R1 ADP: “E”)

3. J. Cook, BUF (R3 ADP; “E”)

4. J. Williams, DAL (R8 ADP; “M”)

5. B. Robinson, ATL (R1 ADP; “E”)

6. J. Gibbs, DET (R1 ADP; “E”)

7. D. Achane, MIA (R1 ADP; “E”)

8. T. Etienne Jr, JAX (R10; “L”)

9. K. Williams, LAR (R3 ADP; “E”)

10. JK Dobbins, DEN (R8 ADP; “M”)

11. A. Jeanty, LV (R1 ADP; “E”)

12. S. Barkley, PHI (R1 ADP; “E”)

Average: R3 ADP; “E”

And…it did! Which is why it makes a bit more sense to put extra weight on RBs (or at least that’s what I’m in the opinion of). Three out of the top-12 RBs come outside the first three rounds of the draft. That’s pretty significant. What this all means is that the hit rate for top-end RBs is high and the payoff for drafting them is of the same caliber. I would bet we won’t see the same outcome for WRs due to their being at least two who are noteworthy on most teams, but we’ll see.

Wide Receiver

1. P. Nacua, LAR (R1 ADP; “E”)

2. A. St. Brown, DET (R1 ADP; “E”)

3. E. Egbuka, TB (R7 ADP; “M”)

4. J. Smith-Njigba, SEA (R3 ADP; “E”)

5. G. Pickens, DAL (R6 ADP; “M”)

6. G. Wilson, NYJ (R3 ADP; “E”)

7. J. Chase, CIN (R1 ADP; “E”)

8. D. Samuel, WSH (R9 ADP; “L”)

9. Q. Johnston, LAC (R15+ ADP; “SL”)

10. R. Odunze, CHI (R6 ADP; “M”)

11. J. Jefferson, MIN (R1 ADP; “E”)

12. C. Sutton, DEN (R5 ADP; “M”)

Average: R4 ADP; “M”

I’d actually consider my prediction to be debunked by this outcome. Pretty much in-line with RBs on average. You could argue a few of these players are ranked this high due to others being injured (Egbuka and Pickens). Not to say they can’t maintain their status when their teammate(s) return, but I think the most likely outcome is their output being diluted by each other’s presence.

Tight End

1. J. Ferguson, DAL (R11 ADP; “L”)

2. D. Kincaid, BUF (R11 ADP; “L”)

3. T. Warren, IND (R10 ADP; “L”)

4. H. Henry, NE (R12 ADP; “L”)

5. T. McBride, ARI (R2 ADP; “E”)

6. T. Kelce, KC (R7 ADP; “M”)

7. T. Kraft, GB (R11 ADP; “L”)

8. D. Goedert, PHI (R11 ADP; “L”)

9. AJ Barner, SEA (R15+ ADP; “SL”)

10. J. Tonges, SF (R15+ ADP; “SL”)

11. S. LaPorta, DET (R6 ADP; “M”)

12. J. Johnson, NO (R15+ ADP; “SL”)

Average: R10 ADP; “L”

This one seemed obvious from the beginning. Remember when I said it would be difficult for B. Bowers to run back his TE1 ranking and drafting him with that underlying assumption attached to him wouldn’t be worth the squeeze? The fact that the top four were all ranked R10+ is telling. TE is the one skilled position I consistently find myself pushing out on prioritizing in drafts until the end and this little exercise just solidifies why.

Self Talk

Source: Facebook (Sleeper)

Hasn’t there been studies on speaking something into existence increases its likelihood of happening? Maybe it’s worth a shot to give it a go this week? Just don’t get caught doing it. See you Sunday.