Issue #214: Fake?

By Derrick Ernst

September 28, 2025

Have Legs

After a while you need to ask yourself, “Is (player name) for real?” It’s about this time in the season when I find myself saying that more and more, especially if I’ve gotten burned by them sitting on my bench. We’re about a quarter of the way through the majority of fantasy league’s regular seasons and the decision that you need to contemplate is if the production you’ve neglected up to this point is to be continued or if you should reconsider their contributions to your team. We won’t go through everyone, but I did want to highlight a few players at each position that aren’t used to seeing the top of fantasy ranks.

Quarterback

• Caleb Willams, CHI (QB3; 24 PPG): Have legs? No. He was QB1 for the first time in his career last week. He’s not even averaging 20 completions/game which means his efficiency has been off the charts. I’d like to think there will be a bit of a drop off as the season progresses.

• Daniel Jones, IND (QB4; 24 PPG): Have legs? No. His rushing has put him atop the ranks. Unless Jones all of a sudden will be this year’s Lamar, he’ll come back to reality.

• Geno Smith, LV (QB11; 18 PPG): Have legs? Yes. There’s a good chance he leads the league in passing yards. He’s capable of being a bye week fill in, especially if LV is up against a lackluster D.

Running Back

• Javonte Williams, DAL (RB6; 17 PPG): Have legs? No. I hope I’m wrong, but DAL simply doesn’t run the ball. He’s RB6 because of his early rushing TD success. He’s getting 14 rushing attempts/game which just doesn’t cut it for a RB1.

• Travis Etienne Jr, JAX (RB9; 16 PPG): Have legs? Yes. Liam Coen’s hire gave the impression Lawrence was primed for a big year. Turns out it may be Etienne. Coen is doing to him what he did for Bucky last yr.

• JK Dobbins, DEN (RB11; 15 PPG): Have legs? No. This is very much the same sentiment as J. Williams — he’s scored in every game despite less than 14 rushing attempts/game. As the season progresses, I do think RJ Harvey will get more looks.

Wide Receiver

• Rome Odunze, CHI (WR3; 19 PPG): Have legs? Yes. It turns out that CHI isn’t going to throw to their TE’s. Odunze has a ~30% target share which I’d argue is required for top WRs. He has surpassed DJ Moore.

• Tre Tucker, LV (WR4; 19 PPG): Have legs? No. He blew up last week with 3 TDs. In fact, he’s the only LV wide out with a receiving TD. This will change over time.

• Quinton Johnston, LAC (WR6; 16 PPG): Have legs? No. It’s pretty remarkable that Johnston, Allen, and McConkey all have 20%+ target shares. McConkey is the only one of the three without a TD. Assuming there’s some mean reversion, McConkey should have more of an upside outlook while Johnston and Allen more downside.

Tight End

• Tucker Kraft, GB (TE1; 13 PPG): Have legs? No. Week two padded his numbers. There are too many hands for the ball to go around in GB and they are one of the league’s highest rushing forces. Despite Kraft having a 20% target share, he only has 15 targets on the season. Red flag.

• Hunter Henry, NE (TE2; 12 PPG): Have legs? Yes. He has the most targets on NE by a long shot (22). The next closest is S. Diggs with 15. He also has the most receiving TDs on the team. Oh yeah, he also sees the field the most of any skilled position player on NE outside of D. Maye.

• Juwan Johnson, NO (TE4; 11 PPG): Have legs? Yes. I think Johnson can be this year’s Jonnu Smith from ’24. He’s top-ten in the league in targets (along with teammate C. Olave). The TE position has been pretty abysmal from a fantasy perspective so far. It would be par for the course if the overlooked continued to top it.

Video Game Numbers

I was scrolling socials the other day and was reminded of this performance from the aforementioned Geno Smith 13 years ago:

Only in NCAA. He also had 31 rushing yards (and no INTs). That’s 61.3 fantasy points!