Issue #213: Peak

By Derrick Ernst

September 25, 2025

Happy Birthday!

This will be a test to my wife to see if she reads today’s issue. It’s her birthday today and I wouldn’t be much of a husband if I didn’t use a little newsletter real estate to wish her an amazing day! To celebrate, we’re taking a cooking class and making ravioli. It’ll be a first for us both. Wish us luck!

I wanted to talk about the concept of peaking — when you are at and exhibit your best. From a personal development standpoint, I suppose you should strive to never peak, rather constantly be chasing after your “peaking” self. It’s a bit different in fantasy. If you spend all season chasing after the best version of your team, you’ll run out of time to see it through. So the question becomes, when is the best time throughout the fantasy season to peak?

Off the cuff, I think the majority of people would say in the playoffs. Wrong. You’re chances of making the playoffs are slim if you haven’t found the team to take you to the finish line until the going gets tough. In my opinion, you want your team to peak towards the backend of the regular season (think weeks 9-12 if your season spans 12 weeks). It’s with this timing that you’ll be equipped to make a late push to solidify your spot in the playoffs and enter them with momentum. This all assumes that by this point in the season your experimentation with you team has yielded a record that has kept you in it.

What I mean by experimentation is that week in and week out you’re constantly finding out what works and what doesn’t. I mentioned that you should consider keeping your starting roster the same for the first few weeks of the season to see your offseason prep through. Over time however, you’ll make tweaks here and there, all in attempt to discover the team that gives you:

• The greatest possibility to win

• The least amount of stress

• The highest level of confidence

As always, there’s probably more, but you get the point. This also brings up the concept of what your goal(s) should be with playing fantasy. Most people would say winning. While they’re not wrong and I agree, I’d also consider layering in components of those other two bullets, especially the point around limiting stress.

Think about it this way, eking out wins with different lineups, a lot of luck, perpetual waiver wire transactions, etc. is a stressful way to come out ahead. After a phase of discovery, putting forth a consistent team that beats out over half the teams in your league each week will on average put you in good standing. I don’t know about you, but I much prefer the latter arrangement.

Sometimes seasons don’t work out that way and they feel like a battle field with mines you’re needing to avoid every week, but that’s why the experimental phase of the season can’t be taken lightly. The chances you take during this period set you up to find your stride and peak at just the right moment that others won’t see coming. I hope this made sense. One of the underlying points I wanted this to highlight is if your season hasn’t got off on the right footing, don’t lose hope yet. By now you’ve likely discovered some things that have worked and some things that haven’t. Continue leaning into more of what has worked and I can assure you things will start falling in your favor.

The Week That Was

Where do we start…

• The reason I’ve been low on M. Nabers is because of who was throwing him the ball. Perhaps J. Dart will bring more consistency to his game (in-line with other WR1s), but I’m not holding my breath

• Our G. Pickens prediction has been working out well through three weeks. He has seen nine targets in back-to-back weeks. He should see double-digits with CeeDee out. He’s a must-start (and so is J. Ferguson who saw 14(!) targets last week)

• While he deserves to be started, I’d be a bit cautious thinking T. Benson is going to come in and be a can’t miss bell cow. J. Conner leaves behind ~20 touches/game

• Reminder, J. Addison is back this week, but I’m not expecting more than 5 targets/game (at least to start)

• E. Egbuka is the only WR left to play in TB. I think he’ll be a top-12 WR for as long as M. Evans and C. Godwin are out

• Well, the floor is yours O. Hampton. If you’re looking for trade ideas, Hampton (and Egbuka) are two worth going after. Hampton should be in-line for 20+ touches/game