Issue #212: Mood Meter

By Derrick Ernst

September 21, 2025

Salt in the Wound

Can you imagine if we still practiced healing wounds by putting salt in them? I can feel the sting already. My father and I talked a lot of fantasy last week while we were away and he realized he had a dilemma on his hands starting the 49ers D/ST and C. Olave (the 49ers played NO last week). I’m sure you’ve ran into this situation before where you’re starting a QB/RB/WR/TE that’s playing against your D/ST. It really is a “good news, bad news” arrangement. If your skilled players are performing, you’re D/ST likely isn’t, and vice versa. Given there are often more points to be had with skilled positions, you want them to be the one(s) to outperform (double whammy if you have a stack at QB and WR). If you’re league has D/ST’s, my guess is that you’re just rolling with standard scoring. If that’s the case, TD’s carry the most weight. I get they are few and far between, but it’s the one thing that separates an average week from a good/great week. I get the latter can happen with a low amount of yards/points surrendered (these factors even outweigh things like sacks, fumbles, and INT’s), but the top defenses in a season usually give up between 15-20 points a game. This alone isn’t enough to drastically separate them in the fantasy ranks. In short, in order to do so, you need the big plays.

So if you find yourself in a situation like this where you’re starting a skilled position player who is playing against your D/ST, don’t sweat it. Yes, it will suck when you’re RB or WR scores against them, but the 6+ points you’re getting from that outweighs the -2 or so points your defense will get dinged with. Yes, I’m a proponent of not being afraid of ditching your D/ST for a more favorable option as often as it takes, but if you have found yourself a good one worth holding onto, certainly don’t feel pressure to drop them because some player on your team may or may not score a TD against them over one week. Think about the long game with this : a stud D/ST over the balance of a season can pull a lot of weight, don’t let one week’s matchup have you lose sight of that.

Speaking of D/ST’s, while I don’t try doing them often, I wanted to take a victory lap with the Cardinals D/ST. Through two weeks, they’re ranked 7th at the position and have these opponents on the horizon:

Source: Facebook

This wasn’t a unit anyone was highlighting and yet we saw something in them simply by way of who they were scheduled to line up against. There’s so much variability with D/ST that there are hidden gems almost everywhere you look. AZ was an example of this and kudos to those who were able to capitalize.

I would also say that most tend to lean into name recognition and historical prowess when it comes to D/ST units. “The (enter team here) have always been know their grit and toughness on defense. I’ll draft them because they’ll be the thing they’ve always been known for again this season.” Easier said than done. This mindset can get you in trouble if you’re not careful. Naivety and fantasy football don’t go hand in hand and if you’re not careful, old wisdom can bite you in the butt if you’re not careful.

Targets

Your ’25 top-ten target leaders through two/three games:

Who just missed the cut are J. Johnson (NO), P. Nacua (LAR), Z. Flowers (BAL), and R. Odunze (CHI). All these guys have 20 targets which puts 14 players to meet or exceed that total through two/three games.

Let’s look at the outliers:

• Note: D. Achane and T. Hill have played in three games while everyone else has played in two

• Without that third game, both wouldn’t have been at/above 20 through two games

• D. Achane and J. Johnson are the only non-WR’s to make the list

• MIA, NO, and LAR are the only teams with multiple representatives

• M. Nabers, C. Lamb, JSN, P. Naucu, and Z. Flowers are the only players who are averaging over 100 yards/game

It’s pretty impressive that J. Johnson of all people is who leads the TE pack. J. Ferguson is second. My guess is that these two went undrafted in a majority of leagues which is enticing if you’re in need at the position. Their yards/game is quite low, but the looks they’re getting help compensate for it if you’re in a PPR league. If there is a guy on this list who I think could be a sneaky league winner, it’s J. Meyers. LV is top-five in the league in passes/game and Meyers is the biggest benefactor. He’s definitely one I’d be interested trading for that I don’t think would be too hard enticing his owner from dishing him over to you at a fair price.

Attempts

Your ’25 top-ten attempt leaders through two/three games:

Not much in the way of surprises here — pretty much chalk from top to bottom. J. Williams is the biggest surprise to me given there’s a bit of noise in DAL’s RB room. Like J. Meyers, I think he can be a league winner for similar reasons. C. Brown is certainly having a rough go of it averaging a whopping 2.4 YPC. I don’t think it will get any easier for him with Burrow sidelined.

Gear Grinder

I don’t recall seeing graphics like these in years past, but I’ve seen them twice now these past two weeks and they’ve been grinding my gears:

Source: Facebook (NFL Fantasy)

For one, this team is 99.99% impossible to draft in re-draft leagues. Over half the team was first- or second-round picks. To me, this is a perfect example of “good in theory, bad in execution.” If you’re going to do a segment highlighting the “perfect lineup,” at least do so for a team I can draft.