Issue #209: Showing up for Work

By Derrick Ernst

September 11, 2025

Sunday Scramble

Week one in the books! 16 wins. 16 losses. Man was that fun. If this last week was any indication for what this season has in store, we’ll be in for a treat. Before we get into things, I wanted to mention that I may end up writing an issue for Sunday. A while back I mentioned how September 14 would be an off day due to traveling, but I may find time to knock out a few pages on the plane. So if you get an issue sent to you on Sunday, consider it a mini win. If you don’t, it means I wasn’t able to make the time. I do have some other things pressing that I need and want to dedicate time to, the Sunday Scramble being one of them. I’ve been giving it a lot of thought and I got to admit, I hate what it has become.

I spend all this time telling you guys that projections don’t matter and yet the vast majority of what the SS has been is projection heavy. What the heck is that all about? My exact thinking. It has been this thing I’ve created as a supplement to the newsletter that has turned into the very thing taking its identity away from it. At least that’s what I’ve been thinking about. Last year I spent so much time in thought with each SS trying to be obscure about which players to call out that I didn’t have the best track record. I can take some bruising when it comes to predictions, but after awhile you’d like to highlight Josh Allen just once to feel like you’ve come out on top. But what I’ve just described is pretty much the reason why bucketing players into tiers is a better use of time than making projections. I’m not sure you noticed this either, but after a while my projections were virtually the same week after week, just with a different player attached to them. I’ll say it again, the SS became something I dreaded and is also the reason I’ve been on pause to start this season about what I want this season’s SS to look like and represent.

All this to say, I have a few ideas up my sleeve that I think and hope you guys will enjoy. I just ask for a bit of grace over the next few weeks for me to bring that vision to life. I promise this change will benefit us all. Out with the old. In with the new. More to come soon.

Take a Breather

Here are a few facts that will blow you away:

Source: Avenue Chiropractic Clinic

23k breathes per day. I feel like the number for blinks is high given you’re asleep for up to a third of the day, but I’m no doctor. It’s safe to say, however, that we’re all good for a couple deeper breathes each day that mark the conclusion of a tall task/outcome. Deep breathes are also good mechanism for pause and if week one didn’t go well for you, let this your reminder to give your lungs a workout.

Week one is full of different feelings, all cranked up to 11: anticipation, optimism, hope, etc. All to which can come crumbling down really quickly (J. Chase and J. Gibbs being two topical examples). It’s easy to think what was seen in week one will be reality for many weeks to come. That’s simply not true.

I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating, give your team a chance to find its identity. Don’t have it on such a short leash that it doesn’t have the opportunity to become what you drafted it to be.

This advice also goes with setting your roster too: be careful not to overreact to players who under/over-performed expectations. Unless injury is involved, I will personally play the same starting roster this week as I did last. Mean reversion is a powerful tool but it doesn’t work if you don’t allow it time to.

Week two is a classic week to get burned as well. You have someone on your bench who went off for 20+ points and you start them in week two expecting the same result yet they perform as they normally would and the player they replaced in your starting roster does the same, but to a higher degree.

I have J. Williams in a few leagues. I didn’t start him in any of them and I had his 20+ points stare me in the face all weekend as I crossed my fingers hoping it wouldn’t bite me. While he’s someone I was high on going into the season and I hope plays out in our favor, I think we can all agree that he maybe outplayed his worth in week one. To hope the same in week two is lunacy. If I’m wrong, it means we have a trend forming and what we had hoped was his upside in the offseason may be what’s playing out. TBD. I predict he puts up 6-10 points this week, putting him at 30 or so for the year (or 15 average points). This is still a starting caliber fantasy asset, but with production that has been smoothed rather than compressed.

Transactions

Let’s start here:

Source: Facebook (Yahoo Sports)

This wasn’t on my bingo card. Was it on yours? Maybe this changes things for J. Meyers and his willingness to stay in LV? If that turns out to be the case, kudos to those who saw past his grievances during draft season and pulled the trigger. I think it will pay some pretty big dividends. It looks like he and Bowers will have a stranglehold on LV targets and if Geno is going to be let loose every week like he did in week one, Meyers will be a top-24 WR.

This was another head-scratcher:

HC Nick Sirianni said this about Bigsby yesterday, “You always look for depth, you always look for good players. This guy is a good player, gives us depth there, and he gives up depth at special teams … I just love the player, and we see a vision for the player.” Do I think Bigsby will have a role in PHI’s offense that will provide relief for Saquon? Yes, but it won’t be anything more than that. I was a believer heading into this season that Bigsby would be the one to rise to the front of JAX’s RB room. We can officially rule that out. Unfortunately, Bigsby’s utility in fantasy is through, at least for this season. Even if Barkley was to get injured, I saw a lot out of Will Shipley to think he’ll get some extra touches. J. Hurts will undoubtedly still get his.