Issue #207: Love That Chicken From Popeyes
By Derrick Ernst
August 31, 2025
Commercial Indicator
Last issue of season two! Another year in the books. THANK YOU to all of you for coming along for the ride! Each year we get a little better, more refined, more visually appealing, more methodical, more of just about everything. You do something long enough and you find what works and what doesn’t. For those of you who have been here since the beginning, thank you for being here through the “what hasn’t worked” to find out what does!
Maybe you’ve seen it, maybe you haven’t, but apparently Baker Mayfield is the featured athlete/spokesperson for Popeyes’ new set of commercials. Uh Oh…the last time Baker was featured in commercials, he was doing them for State Farm and it marked the end (decline) of his time with CLE. Not to always be comparing things to the finance world, but we’ve talked about “cover indicators” before — magazines, newspapers, books, etc. featuring someone or something on its cover and it marking a top for them. I wonder if similar studies have been done for commercials? The last time Baker was riding along, State Farm saw an opportunity. Looking back on it, that opportunity didn’t have the best return on investment. Now Baker is riding even higher after these past two seasons. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes a step back this year. TBD.
By the way, those State Farm commercials were pretty funny. I didn’t smile nor laugh once in the 30 seconds he was highlighting Popeyes food. This also may be because it’s Popeyes, which is somewhere I’ve only been once and hated every bit of it. I’m a die-hard Raising Cane’s enthusiast so that played into it — almost felt like I was cheating. When you have a love for something from one place and you order the “same” thing from another place but expect it to be just as good or better and it isn’t, it’s tough to go back. That was Popeyes for me.
RBs
Let’s get into all the RB news from this last week. There was a TON. Lets start here:
Source: Facebook (NFL)
This is significant. This news doesn’t impact CMC any, however, if you’re not able to make him yours in R1, it should be a priority to snag BRJ with your last pick. I find it insane that he’s even ranked that low. In a Shanahan-led offense, he will have absolutely no issue outperforming his ADP.
So what happens in WSH now? Everybody is running towards Bill Croskey-Merritt, but who I’m more intrigued with is Chris Rodriguez. Here’s what HC Dan Quinn had to say about him the other day:
Short yardage…hmmm. Last season, BJR had 24 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. That was good for tied for 15th in the league. Those 24 rushes resulted in 7 TDs or one every 3.4 attempts. I’ll be the first to admit that I haven’t watched a lick of either BCM or Rodriguez (who admittedly sounds more like a baseball than football player) play ball, but the hype around BCM has blossomed so much that he has a R7 ADP. Rodriguez probably will go undrafted. Now BCM may very well amount to something, but lets not forget A. Ekeler (and J. Daniels) is in the equation as well and when there’s this many cooks in the kitchen, I’d avoid the hype and lean into someone who has the upside most people aren’t talking about.
Speaking of someone else you can get in R7, J. Williams, a player who has received absolutely no attention this offseason, was announced as the starter for DAL. Now DAL has been in the news for others reasons lately, and rightfully so, but I stand by my statement in that Williams is in-line for his best statistically season yet and if Parsons’ departure means DAL will be playing from behind more often, perhaps that will bode well for Williams. When you think about sneaky players that will help you win it all, Williams fits the bill for me.
How about that guy I ran into in Tahoe giving his prediction on Mixon and it coming to fruition. That’s about as close to on-the-ground reporting as a digital fantasy football newsletter can get.
Source: Facebook (Fantasy Football Today)
I still lean D. Pierce to take on a bigger role despite rookie Woody Marks getting a lot of attention. Because I’m a fan, it would be cool seeing Chubb return to his old form and be the back he once was for one more season.
Another guy I don’t feel like anyone is talking about this offseason is T. Pollard and we just received this news the other day. Oddly enough, it didn’t move his ADP much.
He has been one of the more underrated fantasy assets in prior seasons. This news has the makings of that trend continuing.
LAR “plans” on splitting up touches more amongst RBs this season. Ugh…come on! Maybe this signaling cuts into K. Williams’ production a little, but I don’t think enough to significantly impact his usage. The fact that you can get him in R3 is a bit absurd.
To things to close:
Z. Charbonnet has been added to our Draft Guide. The way he ended last season when K. Walker was sideline could have the makings for a lot larger role in ’25
Last season I said that if you wanted exposure to PIT’s ground game, you were to draft both N. Harris and J. Warren. Well, this year I’m deciding that if you want NE running exposure, draft both Stevenson and Henderson
I know it’s the 11th hour and this doesn’t do much good for those of you who have already had your draft(s), but for those who haven’t, the Draft Guide is in tip-top shape, updated and ready to roll for you. If you're a commissioner of a league, let this be your push to have your draft as late as possible. The later in the summer you can make it, the more information that becomes available for you to make your draft preparations. See you on Thursday for the opener — we made it!
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