Issue #206: Subscriber Questions

By Derrick Ernst

August 28, 2025

The Q’s

A finance tidbit, when someone refers to or says they’re invested in “the Q’s” they are saying they have their money in ticker QQQ, an ETF that essentially mirrors the performance of the NASDAQ. Throw that one at your financial advisor the next time you meet and see if they speak the lingo. QQQ was more prominent in the ’00’s, but still remains the most well-known NASDAQ ticker despite there being more options these days. The Q’s = still king.

I’ve been talking today up for weeks. No sense in delaying. Let’s get into all the questions you guys sent in. There was a wide variety and many not as straightforward as I was anticipating, which is a god thing! It’s a breath of fresh air knowing there’s a lot of depth in your thoughts and thinking. Most fantasy content only focuses on surface level thinking. Not TDF and its great subscribers!

“Have you ever looked into Madden being a predictor for fantasy football?”

Sometimes stars align and when you hear one thing, you get inspiration to answer it from another. That’s what happened here with this question. I’ve been seeing a ton of Madden rankings over the past few weeks since the release of this year’s copy. Because D/ST has the most variability (and is the most difficult to predict), I thought they would be a good case study. Below is the top-ten defensive rankings per Madden ’24:

Source: Reddit (r/Browns)

Let’s see how they these ten finished that season from a fantasy perspective:

1. 49ers: 11 ranking; -10 differential

2. Bills: 3 ranking; -1 differential

3. Cowboys: 1 ranking; +2 differential

4. Dolphins: 6 ranking; -2 differential

5. Steelers: 10 ranking; -5 differential

6. Chargers: 21 ranking; -15 differential

7. Eagles: 26 ranking; -19 differential

8. Browns: 5 ranking; +3 differential

9. Jets: 4 ranking; +5 differential

10. Patriots: 24 ranking; -14 differential

Average: 11 ranking; -6 differential

Well, that actually wasn’t too bad. This has me pretty curious about how other positions shake out. Maybe an issue topic for another time. Six out of ten teams with a +/- 5 differential. Anything more than half perks my ears. Assuming this isn’t a one-off and Madden has some credibility here, this is how they rank defenses heading into this season: PIT, KC, DAL, BAL, HOU, BUF, DEN, MIN, DET, NE. Nice to see a few Draft Guide suggestions make the cut. If any of these teams are persistently on your league’s waivers throughout the season, take note, they may just be worthy of a pick up.

“You rarely talk about bye weeks. Do you find them to be important to consider when drafting a team?”

The short answer is no. Early on in my fantasy career I did, but I came to the realization that putting more weight on byes rather than a player was lunacy. There are so many variables that can change by say, someone’s week ten bye, that taking that into consideration on draft night isn’t worth the mental capacity. Draft the team you want and worry about filling in the gaps from byes as the season takes shape.

“Is this a good trade? Picks 4 & 148 for picks 7 & 55. The person I’d be trading with is a big SF fan and wants CMC but he’s nervous he might not be able to get him at pick 7.”

Yes! Lets assume Player A is picks 4 (R1) & 148 (R13) and Player B is picks 7 (R1) & 55 (R5). Player A already had pick 52 in R5 so to move back three spots in R1 to get another pick in R5 is the kind of deal that could really set you apart from others in your league. You win your draft with your mid-round selections. You certainly don’t win it in R13+ and if you’re smart about it, the value you get in a player 4 overall vs. 7 overall is virtually the same. In short, say “yes” before they change their mind!

“My league utilizes as FAAB for free agents. How aggressive should I be utilizing it earlier in the season versus saving it?”

Rather than thinking about FAAB in a spending vs. saving fashion, think about it on a spectrum of potential. Your FAAB should also be thought of as your chance to “buy wins.” Putting this together = which player(s) on waivers has the potential to help my team win? Too many people spend FAAB $’s on inconsequential players to help fill out a roster and make it look good on paper. You don’t buy wins this way, in fact, it depletes your potential to buy them. When a player on waivers all of a sudden becomes a top option/starter for reasons such as injury, go all-in and buy who is bound to help you win. Fantasy is all about besting your opponent. Waivers present an even playing field to get in on the action, but you can tilt it in your favor by avoiding the ancillary transactions when you feel the need to stay relevant and instead going all-in on those who prove to be difference makers.

“How do you think about drafting injury sensitive players from teams with training staffs who have track records of misdiagnosing?”

Drafting any player with an injury designation is a risk. For one, it’s no guarantee that a player placed on IR before the season begins will be back after four weeks. Adding in a bye too means they’ll be out for almost half your league’s regular season. Rather than looking at this from a training staff viewpoint, look at it on from a player standpoint: do they have a history of injury, are they up there in age, what’s their style of play? These things carry more weight in my opinion when adding injury into your equation of whether or not to draft someone. Unless your name is Derrick Henry, then you’re immortal.

“What are your thoughts on stacking and are there any QB/WR stacks you’re interested in for this season?”

Just like bye weeks, I’ve changed my thoughts on stacking throughout the years. While stacking does bring about the idea of “TD double-dipping” there is concentration risk and it’s with that where you need to be careful. It’s easy to think you’re outsmarting the competition pairing the top WR with their QB and vice versa, but the reality of it is that you put yourself in a significant hole if your duo doesn’t hit. Instead, if you’re going to stack, I suggest doing so by pairing a low risk/high reward WR with a stud QB. An example of this would be pairing K. Coleman (who you can get in R9) with J. Allen (likely a R3 pick). By R9 you have all of your starters sorted out. Coleman is likely a flyer with significant upside if he proves to be Allen’s top target like we’re hoping for.

“Who from GB’s WR room do you think will have the most productive season?”

Speaking of concentration, there are a few teams with plenty of options at WR, GB being one of them. A room full of talent is good for winning NFL games, but not so good for winning fantasy matchups. It may sound counterproductive, but in fantasy you want exposure to where talent is spread thin. Think about GB’s divisional rival MIN. JJ is looking like he’ll be the only viable target for the other JJ to start the season. That’s thin and something that will result in sustainable double-digit targets for Jefferson. Said another way, if you’re roster is filled with ball hogs, you’re season is bound to be bright.