Issue #205: Goldilocks

By Derrick Ernst

August 24, 2025

Just Right

Where driving from Yosemite to Tahoe today and I have five hours in the car to kill. Let’s see how far I can get without any internet. The good thing is that I prepped the newsletter yesterday so I’m hoping that’ll pay dividends. We’ll see how that goes. So with the season right around the corner our Draft Guide’s utility is near its end. I started dishing that out as a supplement to the newsletter a few months ago and just like that, it’ll be retired until next season in a few weeks. For those of you who are new as of this offseason, I hope you’ve enjoyed its development. I’ve gone back and forth this year about what the right amount of players should be included within it. This year and last I set out with no designated number of players in mind — just those that I saw fit. Last year we had something like 75 players in the guide. As things sit today, we have identified 90 for the ’25 season. These numbers include D/ST so these overall counts are about five or so less with them excluded.

So what is that “just right” number of players — the intersection between not enough value and feeling overwhelmed. I’m not sure there’s an exact science to this, but we’ll give it the ‘ol college try. But first, I recently learned that the saying “just right” stems from the Goldilocks tale. Apparently, as the story goes, when she was tasting three bowls of porridge, she preferred the bowl that wasn’t too hot nor too cold, but the one that was “just right.” I think the majority of us follow this same principle when it comes to eating, with the exception of my wife. Outside of things that are meant to be eaten cold, she prefers to have her food piping hot. If there isn’t steam coming off the food on her plate when it’s served, it’s too cold.

So here’s my thinking about the “right” amount of players. In a 15-round draft for 12-team leagues, 180 players are drafted. I’m very fond of saying that at least a third of the players you draft won’t be on your team at the end of the season. A third of 180 players is 60. Roughly speaking, this gets us to 240 players for the pool of those that will make up rosters in your league. When you consider that some of the same players will be on multiple rosters, 240 players feels “just right” for the average league.

Then what’s the right number of 240 that should make up our Draft Guide? This is where it will be open for debate.

• 20% (or 1/5) of 240 = 48; This feels a bit on the lighter side

• 40% (or 2/5) of 240 = 96; This feels a bit on the high side or at least to the point where you’d start feeling a bit overwhelmed

What’s a good in-betweener? 33%? That would put us at 80 which oddly enough is where we’ve trended the past few years. Again, no right or wrong answer here. I know some of you would prefer less and some of you more, but my hope is that this speaks to the majority and with that we all find success in more ways than one.

I’ve been ready for my forthcoming drafts for weeks now. For those of you who have already had one or a few, I hope they’ve gone well. For those of you who haven’t, you got this!

RBs

There is a ton to talk about with RBs and some have resulted in a bit of change of heart. Let’s talk about K. Williams, LAR first.

Source: Facebook (NFL)

Williams was one who I leaned into hard last year and it paid off handsomely for those who followed suit. I keep drawing this comparison to Todd Gurley like I want Williams’ demise to happen, but the truth of it is, I really like his game and don’t want that to be his NFL story too, at least while he’s not a part of my roster. I’ve said throughout the offseason that B. Corum would be a deep value play and while that still may be true, this extension simply solidifies Williams’ stronghold on the LAR ground game. We are officially welcoming Williams back to our Draft Guide (and admittedly he should have been in it a long time ago).

I don’t want to say I told you so, but I told you so. This one had “gut feeling” written all over it:

Source: Facebook (Football Forever)

He’s been hovering at the bottom of our Draft Guide for months and now things are shaping up in our favor. If you’ve already had your draft and Sampson went un-drafted, this may be one of those situations where you make a waiver wire transaction before the season even begins. Let’s talk RB depth charts (unofficial, as reported by the team):

• DEN: JK Dobbins, J. McLaughlin, A. Estime, T. Badie, B. Watson, RJ Harvey

• NE: R. Stevenson, A. Gibson, T. Henderson

• HOU: N. Chubb, D. Pierce, D. Ogunbowale

I wouldn’t put much weight at Harvey being last in line in DEN. I still am a firm believer Dobbins will be the lead guy the majority of the season. We ran into a HOU fan in Tahoe and I asked him about J. Mixon. He thinks he’ll start the season on IR and Chubb hasn’t had the best offseason. I hate to say it because he has been a pain point in prior seasons, but ’25 could finally be the season D. Pierce shows his worth.

Status Sheet

For those who are new (or weren’t around last regular season), something known as the Status Sheet takes the place of the Draft Guide. Essentially it’s a sheet outlining who you should be starting, who’s more of a flyer, and who should be kept on the bench. It has been somewhat of a pain point in prior years just in the way I’ve gone about its layout — it has never been easy adjusting one’s status. Until now. I can’t wait to share what I’ve put together with you all soon!

This may also be a good place to lay the land for what’s to come in terms of distribution cadence throughout the season:

• Tuesdays: Crib Notes

• Thursdays: Newsletter & Status Sheet

• Sundays: Newsletter & Sunday Scramble

A lot of you know what all these things mean. For those who don’t, more to come in the weeks ahead.

One last reminder, send in your questions if you have them! This Thursday (8/28) is our subscriber questions issue. I have a pretty good stockpile right now, but there’s a little bit of room for more. See you then!