Issue #200: Occam’s Razor
By Derrick Ernst
August 07, 2025
Obvious
A few issues ago I touched on the topic of getting hung out to dry. I wanted to revisit that for a bit. For one, it’s bound to happen — feeling like after all the homework you’ve done you have nowhere to turn. As much as I aspire to have our Draft Guide be fully equipped, my guess is that there will be times where all the players we’ve identified in a round are taken and you’re going to need to use your intuition to make a pick.
Have you ever heard of Occam’s Razor? It’s a popular technique used in storytelling that involves dropping subtle hints that give audiences the realization that the obvious answer to a situation may indeed be the right one (over those that are considered more complex). It’s a brilliant tactic, if executed well. Often at times we think we need to be wowed by some far-reaching plot twist that we get distracted from the obvious trying to solve for the obscure.
Occam’s Razor is kind of like a “get over yourself” strategy — you thought you needed to solve some Rubik’s Cube and the answers were right in front of you all along. I win. You lose. At least that’s what I think it would say back if it (?) could talk. The point of all this that I wanted to hit home is the idea that in a lot of ways, the most obvious answer is the right one.
Fantasy football is made out to be more complicated than it needs to be, especially this time of year. Some of the fantasy rules I live by most are rooted in the obvious. Putting a TON of weight in volume, being a perfect example. It’s easy to get distracted by things that are made out to be important, but are just there to distract you from the things that actually translate into fantasy success. Have you thought about why your commissioner’s wife, who was asked in a pinch to be the 12th team in your league, comes out of the draft with the best team? It’s because she isn’t being swayed by stuff that doesn’t matter! She sticks to the basics because that’s all she knows.
Fantasy football is supposed to be made for everyone and yet the longer you play it the more you feel like you need to have developed some voodoo formula that gives you all the answers. News flash, there isn’t one and let this be your reminder this season to stick to the basics when you find yourself in a pinch.
Mock
It’s August which means drafts are right around the corner. I used to do a ton of mock drafts in my early years of fantasy and have gotten back into them a few years ago after a decade or so hiatus. Allow me to do the research so you don’t have to but if you’re able to make the time, I suggest doing at least one. If anything, it will allow for you to re-familiarize yourself with the platform your league uses for drafts. Nothing like showing up on draft day having forgotten how to draft, queue, search, and sort for players! Platforms like ESPN are notorious for enhancing their fantasy draft layouts every few years. Doing a mock can serve as your time to be flustered — when it doesn’t matter and mistakes are encouraged.
If you haven’t done a mock before or are unsure where to go about participating in one, ESPN does a really good job at giving you any and all options your heart desires: https://fantasy.espn.com/football/mockdraftlobby
I did a 12-team 0.5 pt PPT mock the other day and came away with this team. I drew the 12th slot:
My takeaways:
I came to the glaring realization that our Draft Guide is light on WRs, especially if you fail to secure your starting two early on
Maybe it was a blessing in disguise that D. Henry went in R1. It “forced” me into drafting a WR as much as I wanted to go RB with my first back-to-back picks
B. Hall and J. Mixon back-to-back is a bit risky and bold for R3/R4 selections, in hindsight. As much as I think there is upside with both of them, you want your top picks to be sure things. It probably would’ve been best drafting one of these guys and looking elsewhere
The G. Pickens pick in R5 was when I realized the WR gap in our Draft Guide. I think I’d prefer him a round or two later
I was aiming for B. Nix or P. Mahomes for my QB slots in R6-8 but got sniped. I then decided to wait and I was pleased with the group of guys I drafted in R6-9 — a good amount of risk and upside
Speaking of risk and upside, there’s plenty of that with McCarthy. I did have intentions of drafting J. Goff too, but he got swiped before I had the chance to grab him. I still recommend making it a priory to draft a vet like Goff if you’re planning to roll the dice with McCarthy
A few thoughts unrelated to my team: T. Hunter went a lot later than I was imagining, L. Jackson went in R2 (he was the first QB taken off the board), B. Robinson was the 4th overall pick, A. Jenty went 18th overall, and CJ Stroud went undrafted (a far cry from the hype that surrounded him last year)
Hear Me Out
This is going to be one big unpopular opinion, but you didn’t sign up for a newsletter to hear what you can get for free. What if J. Daniels is this year’s A. Richardson?
Adam Schefter made waves last year when he took AR15 as the first QB off the board for ESPN’s on-air fantasy football marathon. You don’t need me to tell you how much of a dud that was. Now I’m seeing in places J. Daniels being the first QB taken in drafts this year and I can’t help but draw comparisons. A talented rookie QB can be an immediate game changer for reasons as simple as teams don’t have enough tape to effectively scheme against you. That gets thrown out the window in year 2+. Not to mention how competitive the NFC East is and his top WR being in limbo. The odds Daniels repeats/exceeds his QB5 finish last year are iffy enough to get me to look elsewhere.
A few housekeeping items to close:
This Sunday is the big day! Which means this is my last opportunity to plug. Spreading the word isn’t expected, but is greatly appreciated! Thanks to all who have wrote in with their support: https://www.gofevo.com/event/2025fantasy2
I’m aiming for our August 28 issue to be when we’ll touch on all things subscriber questions. A few of you have already sent in some. If you haven’t and want a chance to have your questions featured, be sure to get them to me over the weeks to come.
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